After the most-selected team in ESPN Survivor fell in each of the first three weeks, Week 4 knocked out only 11% of ESPN Survivor entries. The Buffalo Bills became the fifth 7-point favorite to fall this season, but just 6% of entries chose them.
As expected, the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings combined for 70% of the entries, but both teams won without a major sweat. Lamar Jackson's injury complicates the Ravens' value going forward.
Week 5 is fascinating because all the biggest favorites have barely been used, and most of them aren't among the top Super Bowl contenders. The Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans are all at least 7-point favorites, and all are available to at least 97% of entries.
The Cowboys are the biggest favorites and, not surprisingly, they are the most popular pick. However, Dallas has much more future value than the Bengals and Texans. In addition to the Titans game in Week 11, the Cowboys still have home games against the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals. That Cardinals game happens the same week the Bengals host the Tennessee Titans, so Survivor entrants may have the same decision between Cincinnati and Dallas in three weeks.
The Texans get the Titans on the road this week, but the return matchup isn't until Week 18. However, the Texans also project to be one of the biggest favorites in two weeks when they host the Giants. Of course, Houston is 0-4, but the Texans must be motivated to beat one of the worst teams in the NFL, right?
The other big favorites are the Jacksonville Jaguars in London against the struggling Philadelphia Eagles. However, they have the most future value remaining in the NFL according to my model, with two games against the Titans, home games against the Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders, plus a road game against the Giants.
There are a few other options down the board, including the Detroit Lions visiting the Cardinals. But they also host the Titans and Giants, plus they also have a road game in Miami in Week 9.
If your main goal is to preserve future value, particularly in double-pick contests like on Splash, this is likely the best spot all season to use the Commanders. The Atlanta Falcons surprisingly could mix in, as they are up to 3.5-point favorites against the Ravens due to Jackson's injury.
However, in ESPN contests, the Texans seem like the clear choice. If they are going to be significantly less selected than the Cowboys and Bengals, I will take that discount. It's slightly lower win equity, but you gain leverage against the Cowboys and Bengals entries while gaining future flexibility.
The Bengals-Cowboys choice comes down to the injury reports for the Bengals. While they should be able to beat Miami without them, I would be much more comfortable if Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins suited up on Sunday. Monitor injury reports, since you will need to make your choice by Thursday.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change. Future value based on Mike Clay's cheat sheet.
1. Houston Texans (at Titans)
Taking an 0-4 team in Survivor sounds crazy, but this is not your typical 0-4 team. The Texans are the largest favorites for any team with an 0-3 or worse record in the Super Bowl era. They have played the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL so far according to ESPN Analytics. And we've seen the Texans start slow and get hot. They were 0-2 in 2023 and 0-3 last season and made the playoffs both seasons. The Titans have been the best team to fade in Survivor over the past three seasons. They haven't beaten the Texans at home since 2020, while Cam Ward's offense managed 13 points combined in two meetings last season. Just keep in mind in Circa Survivor that the Texans play on Christmas Eve in Philadelphia, a game which looks a lot easier now than it did a month ago.
Chance to win: 66% (ESPN Analytics), 61% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Texans -7.5 (-375 moneyline)
Future value: 17th
Availability: 100%
ESPN Selection: 13%
2. Dallas Cowboys (vs. Buccaneers)
With the Commanders struggling, the Giants playing a backup quarterback and the Eagles falling well short of expectations, the Cowboys' future value has risen significantly. As a result, I lean towards saving them for later, especially with the Texans and Bengals looking like strong options. However, if you are simply looking for the team with the highest win probability, Dallas is probably the answer. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-13 against the spread in their past 13 games, so betting models have been struggling to catch up to how bad Tampa Bay has been for almost two seasons now.
Chance to win: 86% (ESPN Analytics), 83% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Cowboys -8.5 (-455 moneyline)
Future value: Fifth
Availability: 98%
ESPN Selection: 33%
3. Cincinnati Bengals (at Dolphins)
This is the easiest spot all season on paper for the Bengals, though a lot of it comes down to the health of Chase and Higgins. As bad as the Dolphins have been, the one area they have been good at is against the run, where the Bengals have struggled. Joe Burrow has a tendency to drop games as a big favorite, as he is just 7-6 outright when laying at least seven points. Still, one of the top strategies in Survivor this year is to simply fade the Dolphins, and even if Chase and Higgins are out, the Bengals are a top-three option for me.
Chance to win: 80% (ESPN Analytics), 83% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Bengals -7 (-355 moneyline)
Future value: Eighth
Availability: 97%
ESPN Selection: 35%
4. Washington Commanders (vs. Giants)
The Commanders are only an option in the largest pools, especially ones with double-pick weeks. In pools where you need to pick 24 or more teams, you will need to pick some ugly teams. The Commanders are in their largest favorite role all season on paper, and they are 4-0 against the Giants under Dan Quinn. Obviously this is risky, but if you are able to sneak through with a win, you will have one of the more valuable remaining entries in big contests.
Chance to win: 63% (ESPN Analytics), 56% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Commanders -3.5 (-175 moneyline)
Future value: 26th
Availability: 100%
ESPN Selection: 0.2%
5. Atlanta Falcons (vs Ravens)
Not too long ago, the Ravens would have been a possibility in Week 5 Survivor. But after Jackson's injury and back-to-back Falcons blowout road wins, Atlanta is now very live. The Falcons have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NFL after this week, and unless they truly are a top-15 team like they've shown the last few weeks, you probably don't have another good chance to use them until late December. The Falcons are a logical contrarian pick, but among the smaller favorites, I lean Washington, just because I have more faith in Atlanta being a team you want to have later in the year.
Chance to win: 48% (ESPN Analytics), 46% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Falcons -3.5 (-185 moneyline)
Future value: 21st
Availability: 99%
ESPN Selection: 0.2%
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Eagles)
The Jaguars are big favorites, but they are not a strong consideration this week. They rank first in future value the rest of the season, with several easier games coming up. While they will be lesser selected, they have already been used by nearly 32% of entries, so you will have other opportunities to use them in better spots. Plus, the Eagles are 6-1 outright as underdogs over the past three seasons including the playoffs.
Chance to win: 73% (ESPN Analytics), 80% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Jaguars -7 (-325 moneyline)
Future value: First
Availability: 68%
ESPN Selection: 1%
The Road to 18-0
Week 1: Jaguars (vs. Browns) - Win
Week 2: 49ers (vs. Dolphins) - Win
Week 3: Chiefs (at Dolphins) - Win
Week 4: Vikings (vs. Dolphins) - Win
Week 5: Texans (at Titans)