Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2026 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
2026 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2026 xFP: Running backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Jahmyr Gibbs , DET 87 98 11 3 293 4 17 131 1 2. Kenneth Walker III , KC 82 79 -2 3 278 3 14 107 2 3. Ashton Jeanty , LV 74 55 -19 3 262 3 13 109 1 4. Bijan Robinson , ATL 68 78 10 3 299 3 13 93 0 5. Derrick Henry , BAL 66 75 9 3 290 5 4 27 0 6. D'Andre Swift , CHI 62 56 -6 3 247 4 8 47 0 7. Jonathan Taylor , IND 62 64 1 3 299 3 9 64 0 8. Christian McCaffrey , SF 57 58 1 3 152 3 13 107 0 9. Javonte Williams , DAL 56 51 -5 3 189 3 10 64 0 10. James Cook III , BUF 50 50 0 3 243 2 6 48 0 11. Breece Hall , NYJ 47 43 -4 3 221 2 9 57 0 12. Chase Brown , CIN 45 39 -6 3 209 1 10 70 0 13. Jeremiyah Love , ARI 45 42 -2 3 181 1 10 79 1 14. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 44 53 9 3 182 1 8 50 1 15. Cam Skattebo , NYG 44 37 -7 3 220 2 6 50 0 16. Kyren Williams , LAR 43 53 10 3 158 1 9 82 1 17. Bucky Irving , TB 43 41 -1 3 185 0 12 81 0 18. David Montgomery , HOU 40 40 0 3 152 2 6 47 0 19. Travis Etienne Jr. , NO 40 31 -9 3 140 1 11 72 0 20. Jaylen Warren , PIT 39 41 2 3 175 0 10 70 0 21. Omarion Hampton , LAC 38 31 -7 3 222 2 2 16 0 22. De'Von Achane , MIA 38 25 -13 3 154 1 8 82 0 23. Bhayshul Tuten , JAC 37 41 4 3 196 2 4 25 0 24. Aaron Jones Sr. , MIN 36 35 -2 3 217 1 6 42 0 25. Tony Pollard , TEN 36 26 -10 3 170 1 6 45 0 26. Quinshon Judkins , CLE 35 27 -9 3 184 1 8 49 0 27. Jacory Croskey-Merritt , WAS 32 24 -8 3 221 1 2 17 0 28. Emanuel Wilson , SEA 32 11 -21 3 125 3 0 6 0 29. J.K. Dobbins , DEN 31 14 -18 3 155 2 2 12 0 30. Saquon Barkley , PHI 31 21 -10 3 154 1 5 32 0 31. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 31 25 -6 3 132 0 9 64 0 32. Rachaad White , WAS 30 30 0 3 103 1 8 54 1 33. Jadarian Price , SEA 29 14 -15 3 129 1 4 50 0 34. George Holani , SEA 27 16 -11 3 68 2 6 38 0 35. Tyler Allgeier , ARI 27 18 -9 3 103 1 7 48 0 36. Woody Marks , HOU 27 23 -4 3 94 1 7 48 0 37. MarShawn Lloyd , GB 25 16 -9 3 100 1 4 35 1 38. Kyle Monangai , CHI 25 31 6 3 138 1 3 26 0 39. RJ Harvey , DEN 22 19 -3 2 24 0 10 60 1 40. Kenny Gainwell , TB 22 10 -12 3 46 0 7 58 1 41. Blake Corum , LAR 20 19 -1 3 121 0 4 30 0 42. Keaton Mitchell , LAC 20 20 0 3 84 0 4 19 1 43. Brian Robinson Jr. , ATL 19 23 4 3 139 0 2 12 0 44. Alvin Kamara , NO 19 12 -6 2 82 0 5 36 0 45. Braelon Allen , NYJ 18 17 -1 3 81 0 4 30 0 46. Ollie Gordon II , MIA 17 15 -2 3 90 1 3 17 0 47. Rico Dowdle , PIT 17 11 -6 2 67 0 5 40 0 48. Kaelon Black , SF 17 12 -4 3 112 1 1 9 0 49. Tyjae Spears , TEN 16 14 -2 3 64 0 5 34 0 50. Samaje Perine , CIN 15 14 -2 3 45 0 5 44 0 51. Raheim Sanders , CLE 15 17 2 3 19 0 8 50 0 52. Emmett Johnson , KC 14 16 2 3 70 0 3 21 0 53. Tank Bigsby , PHI 13 12 -2 3 58 1 3 15 0 54. Chris Rodriguez Jr. , JAC 13 13 0 3 85 1 0 0 0 55. Devin Singletary , NYG 13 15 2 2 41 0 4 25 0 56. Chris Brooks , GB 13 8 -5 3 50 0 3 27 0 57. Will Shipley , PHI 13 9 -4 3 43 0 4 31 0 58. TreVeyon Henderson , NE 12 18 5 2 103 0 1 7 0 59. Jordan Mason , MIN 12 12 0 1 65 1 0 0 0 60. Kendre Miller , NO 12 13 1 2 59 0 3 16 0 61. Jonah Coleman , DEN 12 15 3 2 44 0 3 17 0 62. Justice Hill , BAL 11 11 0 3 62 0 3 14 0 63. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 10 11 1 3 0 0 2 31 1 64. Jonathon Brooks , CAR 10 9 0 2 40 0 2 22 0 65. Sione Vaki , DET 10 11 1 3 43 0 3 19 0 66. Najee Harris , NYG 9 6 -4 2 53 1 0 0 0 67. Ameer Abdullah , JAC 9 7 -3 3 46 0 2 17 0 68. Kaleb Johnson , GB 9 6 -4 3 53 0 2 16 0 69. Mike Washington Jr. , LV 9 16 7 3 65 0 1 9 0 70. Alec Ingold , LAC 8 7 -2 3 0 0 3 31 0 71. Corey Kiner , NE 8 5 -3 3 63 0 1 6 0 72. AJ Dillon , CAR 7 5 -2 3 52 0 1 5 0 73. LeQuint Allen , JAC 7 3 -4 3 0 0 2 19 0 74. Kaytron Allen , WAS 6 4 -2 3 40 0 0 0 0 75. Tyler Badie , DEN 6 7 1 2 9 0 2 20 0 76. Ty Johnson , BUF 6 9 3 1 0 0 3 23 0 77. Brady Russell , SEA 5 7 2 3 0 0 3 20 0 78. Seth McGowan , IND 5 2 -3 3 26 0 1 6 0 79. Tyler Goodson , DAL 5 3 -2 1 29 0 1 6 0 80. Kimani Vidal , LAC 5 3 -2 3 4 0 2 21 0 81. Ronnie Rivers , LAR 4 3 -1 2 24 0 1 6 0 82. CJ Donaldson , NO 4 2 -3 3 14 0 1 12 0 83. DJ Herman , MIA 4 3 -1 3 0 0 2 22 0 84. DeeJay Dallas , MIN 4 4 0 3 11 0 2 12 0 85. Emari Demercado , DAL 3 2 -1 2 25 0 0 0 0 86. Lan Larison , NE 3 3 0 1 0 0 2 10 0 87. Demond Claiborne , MIN 3 1 -1 2 12 0 1 6 0 88. Reggie Gilliam , NE 2 1 -1 3 0 0 1 10 0 89. Nicholas Singleton , TEN 2 1 -1 2 19 0 0 0 0 90. Jaylen Wright , MIA 2 1 -1 2 14 0 0 0 0 91. Brashard Smith , KC 2 1 -1 3 0 0 1 6 0 92. Travis Homer , PIT 2 2 0 2 14 0 0 0 0 93. Tyrone Tracy Jr. , NYG 2 0 -2 3 15 0 0 0 0 94. Jaleel McLaughlin , CLE 2 0 -1 2 5 0 1 6 0 95. Michael Burton , CLE 2 0 -2 3 0 0 1 6 0 96. Jordan James , SF 1 2 0 2 14 0 0 0 0 97. Patrick Ricard , NYG 1 0 -1 3 0 0 1 7 0 98. Lew Nichols III , PIT 1 0 -1 1 4 0 0 0 0 99. Adam Prentice , DEN 1 1 0 3 0 0 1 5 0 100. Hunter Luepke , DAL 1 1 0 3 10 0 0 0 0 101. Bam Knight , ARI 1 2 2 3 8 0 0 0 0 102. Connor Heyward , LV 1 0 0 3 6 0 0 0 0 103. Ray Davis , BUF 1 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 104. Frank Gore Jr. , BUF 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 105. Jacob Saylors , DET 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 106. Dylan Laube , LV 0 -2 -2 3 0 0 0 0 0 107. Tahj Brooks , CIN 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 108. Eli Heidenreich , PIT 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 109. Anthony Tyus III , CAR 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 110. Dylan Sampson , CLE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 111. Dean Connors , LAR 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 112. Josh Williams , TB 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 113. Rasheen Ali , BAL 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 114. British Brooks , HOU 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 115. Ben VanSumeren , KC 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 116. Isaiah Davis , NYJ 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 117. Velus Jones Jr. , SEA 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 118. Roschon Johnson , CHI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 119. Riley Nowakowski , PIT 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 120. Julius Chestnut , TEN 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 121. Sean Tucker , TB 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 122. Max Bredeson , MIN 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 123. Andrew Beck , NYJ 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0
