OAKLAND, California -- In previous FIFA World Cups, the road ahead of a nation is generally pretty clear heading into the final slate of group games; you finish first or second in the group or go home. The expansion of the tournament to 48 teams, however, has made things a little more muddled for the Socceroos. But as assistant coach Hayden Foxe has told ESPN, extensive work has been done to ensure they'll be ready to pursue a first-ever knockout stage win regardless of where they end up.
Heading into their clash with Paraguay on Thursday, the simplest solution for the Socceroos is to get a win or a draw. In that scenario, they're guaranteed to finish second in Group D and face the second-placed finisher from Group G in Arlington on July 3. That opponent is likely to be drawn from one of the Egyptians, Belgium or Iran, with the Pharaohs set to face Team Melli in Seattle the day after the Socceroos face Paraguay, while the Belgians face the Kiwis in Vancouver at the same time.
A loss for Australia against La Albirroja, though, in this new, expanded era of the World Cup, would set up a nervy few days for Tony Popovic's side, first to find out if they would end up as one of the eight-best third-placed finishers from the tournament's 12 groups -- FIFA's shift to preferencing head-to-head as a tiebreaker means they can't finish below Türkiye regardless of their result against the United States -- and then which of the 495 possible combinations of qualifiers will send them for the Round of 32.
Per Opta, the Australians have 94.26% of reaching the knockout stages as of Monday morning, reflective of their combined chances of finishing second in their group or advancing as a third-placed side. As short of getting thumped by Paraguay, who are stout foes but also generally known more for their defensive fortitude than attacking prowess, results elsewhere have made their win over Türkiye a valuable one. What potentially awaits should they finish third, however, demonstrates the importance of getting a result against Paraguay.
The most likely scenario in a third-placed finish, as it stands, would be a trip across the country to face Group E winners Germany in Boston on June 29. Not ideal. And making matters worse, with third-placed teams unable to travel until every group stage match is completed and the Round of 32 locked in, they'd only be able to fly to Massachusetts to face Die Mannschaft on June 28, effectively preventing them from training in Boston and seeing them arrive a day later than the Germans, who would m be making the much shorter commute from Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Significantly less likely but still daunting would be a potential trip to New York to face France or Norway on June 30, which would at least allow them to travel two days before the game as per FIFA standards. Even less likely, but not completely ruled out, would be a shorter flight to Kansas City to face Group K's winner -- likely Colombia, Portugal, or DR Congo -- on July 3.
"It's important to have an understanding of it, because what you don't want to do is get caught where it's all done last minute," Socceroos assistant coach Mile Jedinak said. "Some things you can't control, ultimately you don't know where.
"More important, is what we can do and how we can control it in terms of the game. The game is obviously the deciding factor for a lot of these things.
"But in terms of the bigger planning stuff, a lot of that stuff was done a long time ago. That's the level of detail you're dealing with. The different permutations, they've been looked at. It's probably going to get revisited closer, as you can imagine, but the bulk of that work, a lot of that was done previously."
Indeed, it would surprise few who are aware of the obsessive attention to detail that Popovic has brought to the Socceroos that significant preparatory and planning work has been done to ensure that the side's next move following the group stages, regardless of where their destination lies, is as seamless as possible.
Securing qualification with a year to spare, and with six months between the draw and the tournament, Foxe and head of performance Leigh Egger spent many long weeks criss-crossing the United States to prepare for the tournament, leading the process of assessing a possible base camp location -- the Socceroos assigned home of Oakland their first choice, with San Diego their preferred backup -- and then the possible pathways through the group stages and beyond. October and November friendly windows across North America proved useful here, allowing Football Australia to turn the trips into quasi-scouting expeditions.
"Once we'd set our base camp... then you look at the stadiums where we're playing, and the MD-1 matchday hotels to make sure that there's no red flags," Foxe told ESPN. "Even though they're FIFA operated, you've got to make sure that if there are any issues, you're on top of it, because everyone's different, everyone looks for something different in hotels and in training facilities.
"Then you look now beyond the group where we come, if we come third, if we come second, or if we win the group, where we can possibly fly to and play? You have to do the research and the logistical work, groundwork on where you can go from five possible destinations.
"We spend the night where we're thinking of staying, or where we have to stay in terms of the match day. We stay the night to see exactly what the night will consist of."
During these inspections, there are red flags -- "A main street, if there's a pub across the road, if the windows are very light and not soundproof, where they'd put you in the hotel" -- and green flags -- "Good food, quiet, a good hotel with good facilities, good staff that can help you. The food and the beds are very important for us, the beds and pillows, because that's where you recuperate and rest after training sessions and games."
And while the hotels and training bases that teams will stay in and prepare at throughout the knockout stages are predetermined based on their group stage finishes, all the way to the final, with teams moving into their lodgings two days before the game, regardless of where they've previously been based, they're still inspected so that the squad knows what to expect.
"There are places where we have a list, a long list, that we tick off," said Foxe. Because when you've seen so many different hotels and facilities, if you don't have that list, you forget; 'was it that hotel we saw, or was it this one? What happened there again?'
"So we video, we walk through, we have a checklist, and then we give it a rating, so when we have to revisit it, we know that's worth it, or this one's a flat no, depending on what we're looking for, what we want. It's a process, but you kind of get used to it, know the process, and you know what you're looking for once you've done a few.
"We know where we go to train. Then you're looking out for where people could maybe be spying on you, looking and seeing vantage points down. We've got a great, great security team in Mark Saliba. His team scoped the whole area. We're quite fortunate with the information we acquire from the security team."
Once again, the work that the Socceroos have done before a ball was even kicked in North America has been exhaustive. And it ensures that whatever happens in the weeks ahead, their fate will be governed by what they do on the pitch, rather than off it.