After 103 games, the World Cup Golden Boot comes down to two predictable names: Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé.
The pair were the top two scorers at the last World Cup -- Mbappé pipped Messi to the Golden Boot with a hat trick in the 2022 final -- and it's a similar story this time round.
After his brace in the high-scoring third-place game against England, which finished 6-4 in the Three Lions' favor, Mbappé is now in the driver's seat for the award. But with this year's final (Spain vs. Argentina) still to come, Messi could yet overturn the France star's lead.
(Note: FIFA's rules state that if two players are tied on most goals, then their assist total will be used as a decider. If the assist totals are also the same, then the player who has played fewer minutes at the tournament will be ranked first)
Who will win the Golden Boot? Here's an argument for and against for each.
Kylian Mbappé, France
Goals: 10
Assists: 4
Games: 8
Why he will win it: Mbappé struck twice and got an assist in France's loss to England in the third-place game. That tally gives him a commanding lead in the race, and because he will have played fewer minutes than Messi by the end of the tournament (assuming Messi plays at least 90 minutes), Messi would have to score a hat trick or two goals plus an assist to usurp Mbappé.
Why he won't: Mbappé's World Cup is now over, so he has no further opportunities to pad his total. Messi has already scored one hat trick at this World Cup; would it be so impossible to think he could do it again on the biggest stage of all?
Lionel Messi, Argentina
Goals: 8
Assists: 4
Games: 6
Why he will win it: He's Messi, so you can never count him out. Most importantly for the Golden Boot race, he's scoring for Argentina like never before, as manager Lionel Scaloni has gotten the most out of him at the international level.
Why he won't: Let's be honest: The odds are against the GOAT now. Facing Spain's near-impenetrable defense (they've only conceded one goal this tournament), he'll need to have an incredible final to take the Golden Boot.