All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Monday's top batter prop bets
Pete Alonso | OVER 0.5 HR (+439)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $1.60 EV
Adley Rutschman | OVER 0.5 HR (+790)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.24 EV
Zack Gelof | OVER 0.5 RBI (+195)
Projection: 38% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.31 EV
Jake Rogers | OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI (-121)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.63 EV
Chandler Simpson | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+105)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.22 EV
Monday's top pitcher prop bets
Shane McClanahan | UNDER 4.5 K (+101)
Projection: 78% chance of this bet hitting, with a $55.94 EV
Carmen Mlodzinski | OVER 2.5 K (-138)
Projection: 75% chance of this bet hitting, with a $40.31 EV
Cristopher Sanchez | UNDER 1.5 ER (+111)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.05 EV
Mitch Bratt | UNDER 2.5 ER (+102)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.05 EV
Framber Valdez | UNDER 2.5 ER (-135)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.03 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.
Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER
The Rays have gone under this total in seven straight home games. (+7.55 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -130
Baltimore Orioles Team Total OVER
Baltimore has been over this total in seven consecutive road contests. (+7.20 Units / 96% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -105
Philadelphia Phillies Game Total OVER
Games at Citizens Bank Park have gone over this total five straight times. (+5.00 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -113
San Diego Padres Run Line
The Padres have won this bet in 11 of their last 15 road games. (+7.80 Units / 38% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -156