Taking a look around the SEC, the Georgia Bulldogs should be the favorite to win the conference. Kirby Smart is still one of the best coaches in the sport, Gunner Stockton has shown that he can beat elite teams and the roster is loaded again. Though trips to Alabama and Ole Miss won't be easy, Georgia doesn't have nearly as many questions as everyone else.
When I compare the SEC favorites, Georgia is asking the least of its quarterback. Texas needs Arch Manning to prove the offense can play better against elite defenses, Oklahoma needs John Mateer to survive a tough conference schedule and Ole Miss needs Trinidad Chambliss to carry one of the league's most explosive offenses. Georgia simply needs Stockton to continue to make good decisions because the defense, offensive line and overall roster do so much of the heavy lifting.
But the best team doesn't always make the best bet.
That's Ole Miss for me, my college football darling entering the season. Chambliss has a real argument as the best returning quarterback in the SEC. He finished last season with the highest passing grade among this group, excelling when playing under pressure. That's a trait I trust because every SEC quarterback will spend Saturdays dealing with collapsing pockets.
Then you look around him. RB Kewan Lacy is back after producing the second-most rushing scores last season and third-most rushing yards in the country, not just the conference. The offensive line should be better from returning production, which means the Rebels might finally be one of the most experienced teams. The schedule is tough, with road trips to Florida, Texas and Oklahoma, but Georgia has to come to Oxford. That could be a huge swing game.
Ole Miss doesn't have to win the SEC to make the College Football Playoff. A 10-2 SEC team with wins over quality opponents is in an excellent position for an at-large bid, even if Georgia or another team wins the conference. That's why Ole Miss +220 to make the Playoff can be a better betting proposition than 11-1 to win the SEC.
Chambliss at 13-1 to win the Heisman is also worth a sprinkle before kickoff. If Ole Miss reaches double-digit wins while contending for a conference title, he'll be at the center of that conversation. Georgia is my general prediction to win the conference, but Ole Miss is where I think the betting value is.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Secondary bets
Oklahoma Sooners OVER 8.5 wins +156 (alt line)
The future of OU depends on whether Mateer plays to his capabilities. Oklahoma has the defense and the coaching staff to beat anyone in the SEC, but the problem is what the Sooners have to survive throughout the season. Road games at Michigan and Georgia, back-to-back midseason tests with Georgia and Texas, then again back-to-back Ole Miss and Texas A&M before closing with a road game at Missouri.
Mateer has the toughest job. His offensive line was better late in the year, but OU still asked him to create plays from chaos. Among Stockton, Chambliss and Mateer, it was Mateer who struggled the most under pressure, but he also faced the highest pressure of the three. Stockton might have the highest floor, Chambliss might be the best QB right now, but Mateer could have the highest ceiling. The 2025 season was about volatility, the longest-developing offense, highest pressure rate, highest turnover-worthy play rate and lowest passing grade.
But Oklahoma returns its offensive line, returns the defense, and Mateer enters Year 2 in the same system. Mateer has room to improve.
Consider fading Texas when favored in marquee games
As a Longhorn alum, fading Texas was my strongest prediction entering last season. Fade the season win total, the playoff, week to week ... just fade Texas. Not once did I believe the Longhorns were as good as the market said they were.
I'm asking the same questions again. This time, Texas is not favored to win the Heisman, the national title or the conference, but it is still getting a lot of love. The Longhorns finished 5-7-1 ATS last season. That's not by chance.
The strongest argument against Texas is what happened when the competition improved. Isolate the better opponents, and the pattern is hard to ignore. Against Ohio State, Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M -- and even Kentucky! -- the offense consistently took a step back. Those games produced some of the Longhorns' lowest offensive and passing grades of the season.
Explosive plays disappeared, efficiency dropped and the offense struggled to move the ball. The defense was good enough to keep Texas in games, but even that showed cracks against teams such as Georgia, Florida and Texas A&M.
The 2026 schedule has Ohio State in Week 2, and includes matchups with Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU for a projected night game at The Swamp, then ending the season with a road game in Aggieland. That's a lot of opportunities to face the kind of defenses that gave Texas problems a year ago.
I don't love the futures prices because they're efficient. UNDER 10.5 wins is -440. That tells you something. The counterargument is Arch Manning enters Year 2, and historically that's when quarterbacks take the biggest leap. I don't disagree, but Texas doesn't need Manning to improve against Texas State or UTSA. The Longhorns need him to play significantly better against better competition.
Until this offense proves it can, I'll continue looking to fade Texas in marquee matchups. -- Pamela Maldonado
Other bets to consider
By Mark Zinno
Alabama OVER 8.5 wins (-120)
Though the masses doubt Kalen DeBoer, I don't. He's a phenomenal coach. People will point to the offense and a new quarterback being the downfall here, but the offense won't have to be elite for this team to win. The Tide's defense was one of the better units in the country last season. Alabama finished 29th in opponent EPA per play and 25th in success rate and it returns seven starters. DeBoer has a proven track record of developing quarterbacks. Whether it is Keelon Russell or Austin Mack taking the snaps, Alabama will be better on the ground in Ryan Grubb's RPO offense.
The Tide avoid Texas, Oklahoma and Ole Miss this season and get Georgia and Texas A&M at home, so the schedule sets up favorably. If they split road games with Tennessee and LSU, they are likely headed for 10 wins and won't be left on the outside of the playoff. They can still lose them both, drop the game to Georgia and land on nine wins. If you want to chase some plus-money, Alabama to make the CFP is +154 and it's worth a look.
Texas A&M OVER 8.5 wins (+100)
I'm backing two things here with the Aggies:
They return 18 starters from last season.
QB Marcel Reed is one on whom this season hinges.
For a stretch last season, Reed was in the Heisman conversation, and I think he can be there again. He will have to cut down on the turnovers (12 INTs last season) and raise his completion percentage. But the improvement should come under new playcaller Holmon Wiggins, who was co-offensive coordinator last season. I'd also take a flier on Reed to win the Heisman at 30-1. As far as the schedule, three road games with LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma might all be losses. Providing the Aggies hold serve everywhere else, including road dates at Missouri and South Carolina, that would leave the regular-season finale hosting Texas as the ninth win. That's forecasted as a pick 'em game, and given the price here at even money, it makes sense to look for that win at home in the finale. If they win one of the three big road contests, this feels like a very winnable bet.
Vanderbilt under 3.5 conference wins (-120)
Coach Clark Lea and the Commodores might come crashing back to Earth after the program's first 10-win season. Gone is QB Diego Pavia and his 17-9 record, so Vanderbilt will go with true freshman Jared Curtis. He faces an unfavorable home schedule, with Ole Miss, Alabama and Tennessee coming to town. Road dates with Auburn, Georgia and Florida won't be any easier for Curtis, who has never played in environments like that before. The Commodores have a three-game stretch against Arkansas at home and road games at Kentucky and Mississippi State. Without a sweep there, I don't see how they get to four wins in the SEC.
Team to bet ATS: Florida
I love the Jon Sumrall head coach hire. He's a proven program builder who has won everywhere he has been. He will try to do the job that no one since Urban Meyer has done, which is bring the Gators back to the top of the SEC. The Gators will certainly be better, but they are still playing one of the toughest schedules in the country, meaning wins will be difficult. But that doesn't mean the Gators aren't worth backing in individual games. Sumrall bringing Buster Faulkner along with QB Aaron Philo from Georgia Tech should stabilize the offense enough to keep Florida in games.
Florida is a projected underdog in five games this year, with a near pick 'em game at Auburn. Though I won't be too interested in laying points with the Gators, especially on the road, there will be spots as an underdog that will look to back Florida. Games against top-15 opponents such as Texas and Georgia on the road and in home dates with Ole Miss and Oklahoma should provide value to Florida against the spread. Sumrall will make the Gators more competitive this season, and they likely won't be blown out. He might even pull off an occasional upset against a ranked opponent, especially in The Swamp.