Texas Tech was the best team in the Big 12 in 2025. TTU excelled because of its roster and execution, not luck. The Red Raiders won 12 games, dominated conference play and finished with arguably the best defense in the country. They also return what could be the best running back duo in the conference with Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams.
That's why they're the favorite to win the conference at -105. The problem is that the market is pricing Texas Tech as if that elite defense simply carries over, but this roster has legitimate questions.
Will Hammond will get the start at quarterback, but he's still an unknown over the course of a full season. Then there's the defense, where Jacob Rodriguez isn't just another linebacker to replace; he was one of the most impactful defensive players in the Big 12 and the heartbeat of the unit.
On top of losing Rodriguez, Texas Tech also must replace its top two pass rushers: David Bailey and Romello Height, who combined for 25 of the team's 41 sacks. Plus, the Red Raiders lose two of their top three cornerbacks, including Brice Pollock, who accounted for five of the team's 17 forced interceptions in 2025.
That's a tremendous amount of production disappearing from the nation's best defense. Tech attacked those positions through the transfer portal, but adding talent isn't the same as replacing proven production.
Now compare that with BYU.
BYU +550 to win the Big 12
The Cougars return QB Bear Bachmeier, their top running back in LJ Martin and two of their top three defenders in S Faletau Satuala and LB Isaiah Glasker. Although they did lose their leading pass rusher, Jack Kelly, along with some pass-catching production, the core of the roster remains intact. Most importantly, they're not asking a new quarterback to lead the offense.
As a freshman, Bachmeier threw for more than 3,000 yards while leading BYU to an 11-win regular season. He also handled pressure and blitzes well, which is encouraging for such a young quarterback. Hammond might eventually become the better quarterback, but as of right now, when I'm comparing two conference contenders, I'll lean toward the quarterback who already has proved he can win across an entire Big 12 schedule.
Tech deserves to be the favorite, but the gap between these two rosters entering the season isn't as large as the betting market suggests.
BYU has won 23 games over the past two seasons, keeps its quarterback, has an established offensive identity and maintains enough continuity on defense to stay in the conference title race. If I'm picking the best betting value, it's BYU at +550.
Secondary bets
Arizona UNDER 7.5 wins (-125)
Last year's 9-4 record and this year's roster don't tell the same story. Several indicators point toward regression. In 2025, the Wildcats finished plus-18 in turnover margin -- second best in the country behind Indiana -- a statistic that tends to move back toward the mean from year to year.
The bigger concern is personnel. Arizona's defense was the strength of the team in 2025, finishing second in the Big 12 in PFF defensive grade, but that unit is replacing key contributors in tackling, pass rush and the secondary. On offense, Noah Fifita gives the Wildcats a high floor at quarterback, but only four starters return and the offensive line has three new starters. That's a lot of turnover around your most important player.
The schedule doesn't offer many breaks, either. Trips to BYU, Texas Tech and Kansas State won't be easy, while Utah and TCU also appear on the slate. Arizona can still be competitive, but there's a meaningful difference between being competitive and converting that competitiveness into wins. A six- or seven-win season feels much more in line with this roster than another nine-win campaign.
Houston OVER 8.5 wins (+130)
Coach Willie Fritz has a history of building winning programs. Houston already showed the payoff by jumping from four wins to 10 last season. Conner Weigman continues to settle into the offense, giving the Cougars one of the conference's more experienced quarterbacks. The roster has holes to fill -- especially on defense -- but Fritz has shown he can develop players and maximize transfer additions.
The schedule is the appealing factor for this prediction, as Houston avoids BYU and Arizona. If Weigman stays healthy and the offense takes another step, I see at least eight wins with a couple of coin flips. The roster gives me pause, but there are paths to hitting nine wins.
Other bets to consider
By Mark Zinno
Cincinnati UNDER 5.5 wins (-150)
Coach Scott Satterfield will have his most difficult coaching season ahead after losing quarterback Brendan Sorsby and top wide receiver Cyrus Allen. In simpler terms, 43 of the 50 touchdowns Cincinnati's offense scored last year are no longer there. Just three of the nine total returning starters are on offense. That's not a good sign in a conference loaded with defense. The Bearcats likely will start out 3-0, but finding three more wins feels very tough, especially when two home games are against Texas Tech and Utah. I'd circle the game against a much-improved Kansas State team at home in Week 4. If the Bearcats win that one, they have a shot but still would need to steal a road win at Iowa State in November to pull it off.
Iowa State under 4.5 wins (+115)
Matt Campbell's legacy in Ames will not be forgotten ... but what he left behind might easily be forgetful. Just four starters -- and none from the entire offensive line -- return in total. New head coach Jimmy Rogers, who won a Division I championship at South Dakota State in 2023, will have to work miracles. The Cyclones are projected favorites in just two games this season (against SE Missouri State and Bowling Green). But they are projected touchdown underdogs in every road game. They would have to sweep home dates against West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati in order to get there. There's too much rebuilding here in the first year of a new coach for me to believe that happens.
Game to circle: Notre Dame at BYU on Oct. 17
The time of this game isn't set yet, but the table is set for the Irish to be 6-0 and the Cougars to be 5-0. Projected as bigger than a touchdown home underdog, this could be the spot where BYU pulls off the upset. If this game kicks off at 7 p.m. MT (or later), it's a huge lift for the "Vampire Cougs," who have lost just four night games at home since 2019. It feels like a prime spot for the home underdogs if it materializes.