All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Friday's top batter prop bets
Rafael Devers | OVER 0.5 HR (+363)
Projection: 25% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.54 EV
Mike Trout | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-104)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.89 EV
Chandler Simpson | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+124)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.39 EV
Kyle Stowers | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+121)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.38 EV
Luis Arraez | UNDER 1.5 TB (+114)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.38 EV
Friday's top pitcher prop bets
Zack Wheeler | UNDER 6.5 K (-136)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $33.54 EV
Logan Webb | UNDER 4.5 K (-117)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.61 EV
Michael Lorenzen | OVER 2.5 ER (-124)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.02 EV
Kai-Wei Teng | UNDER 2.5 ER (-157)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.05 EV
Coleman Crow | OVER 3.5 K (-160)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.17 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.
Cleveland Guardians Team Total UNDER:
The Guardians have been under this total in nine consecutive games. (+9.10 Units / 90% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +105
Washington Nationals Run Line:
Washington has won this bet in nine straight games.(+9.00 Units / 66% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -144
Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline:
The Phillies are looking to extend a seven-game road winning streak. (+7.25 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: +100
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline:
The Rays have won 17 out of their last 20 home games. (+13.90 Units / 55% ROI). Current odds: -185