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MLB betting tips for Wednesday: Solid showings on tap for Shohei, Cease

Shohei Ohtani is scheduled to be on the mound Wednesday against an anemic Mets offense. John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Wednesday's top batter prop bets

Taylor Ward | OVER 0.5 HR (+690)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $45.12 EV

Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 HR (+780)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.06 EV

Munetaka Murakami | OVER 0.5 RBI (+204)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.86 EV

Julio Rodriguez | OVER 0.5 RBI (+215)
Projection: 37% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.83 EV

Edouard Julien | UNDER 0.5 H (+144)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.95 EV

Edmundo Sosa | UNDER 0.5 H (+136)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.28 EV

Wednesday's top pitcher prop bets

Shohei Ohtani | OVER 6.5 K (-135)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $33.68 EV

Randy Vasquez | UNDER 4.5 K (-131)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.32 EV

Dylan Cease | UNDER 1.5 ER (+110)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.58 EV

Dylan Cease | OVER 6.5 K (-116)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.89 EV

Tyler Mahle | UNDER 5.5 K (-154)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.35 EV

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top Betting Trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.

Minnesota Twins Moneyline
The Twins have won this bet in six consecutive home games. (+7.50 Units / 120% ROI). Current odds: +109

San Diego Padres Run Line
The Padres have won this bet six games in a row. (+7.30 Units / 109% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -149

Houston Astros Game Total OVER
The game total has gone over in six consecutive Houston home games. (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI). Current odds: 8.5 @ -118

Tampa Bay Rays 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line
The Rays have won this bet in five consecutive road games. (+5.05 Units / 73% ROI). Current odds: -0.5 @ +120

Arizona Diamondbacks 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total OVER
Arizona has hit the over for this bet 16 times in its last 20 road games. (+12.00 Units / 51% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -125

New York Mets 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER
The Mets have failed to reach this team total in 14 of their last 20 games. (+7.95 Units / 32% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -145