All up, the Socceroos two-game series against Brazil probably ticked most of the boxes Tony Popovic was hoping it would. Yes, a 4-2 defeat in Brisbane probably wasn't the kind of scoreline he wanted after a 1-1 draw in Townsville. But in terms of the football that was played by the Socceroos, this international window felt like it was an important step forward.
As while the Socceroos may have had less of the ball in both fixtures against the Seleção (35% and 49%), there was a major demarcation between what they were trying to do with it compared to what we've seen from them in the past. Especially in the first half of both games, there was a level of purpose and bravery in their possession that we've rarely seen in the two years of Popovic's tenure. Indeed, at times they were almost unrecognisable from the unit that was blown away in the first half against the United States at the World Cup, or couldn't seize Egypt when they were there to be taken. Shed the inbuilt layer of cynicism Australian football instills in you, and it was genuinely exciting.
"In the days leading up to the game, the boss did specify what he wanted from us," defender Alessandro Circati said post-Townsville. "He said to put that on show.
"He wants us to play out a little bit more, be a bit braver, break their press, and maybe risk a pass more instead of just playing the safe option, which can lead to you ending up in the attacking third."
Tellingly, after conceding after 132 seconds in Brisbane, most would have anticipated that the Socceroos would look to get back into the game by bunkering down, absorbing pressure, and trying to jag something going the other way. Instead, while the familiar running and defending was there, it was paired with midfield duo Paul Okon-Engstler and Jackson Irvine looking to continue their showing from Townsville by being willing to show for the ball, turn, and break the press. Of the defensive trio of Circati, Lucas Herrington, and Harry Souttar looking to play forward. Of Connor Metcalfe dropping to receive and link up. It wasn't perfect by any stretch, but it saw them briefly take a 2-1 lead.
"We've played a lot of big nations over the last few years -- top opposition, top players -- and we were always competitive in these games," said Jackson Irvine. "But I think we showed tonight we can be competitive in a different kind of way. And I think that's really exciting to see; that we've added that to our game.
"We still run and defend and have that part of our game, which is a non-negotiable. It has to be there. But the ability [and] desire to run, to get on the ball, to break pressure, to get yourself free. Fantastic. A lot a lot to be pleased with."
Admittedly, Brazil can't be said to have been at full strength over this week, with João Pedro and Wesley both late withdrawals and the likes of Matheus Cunha, Alisson Becker, Gabriel Martinelli, and Igor Thiago left out. As manager Carlo Ancelotti repeatedly reiterated, these games, in his eyes, were largely about finding a new generation of players for the 2028 Copa América and 2030 FIFA World Cup, with the Seleção in something of a state of flux following their round-of-16 exit at the 2026 tournament. But even with a somewhat diminished global standing, Brazil is still Brazil, and talent such as Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha, and Marquinhos all travelled Down Under. And Popovic could also point to the absence of players such as Jordan Bos, Mohamed Touré, and Cristian Volpato in his ranks.
Now, as the South Americans jet off to Kolkata for another money-spinning friendly against India, focus for the Australians turns to November, when they'll face Qatar and Jordan -- finalists from 2023's men's Asian Cup -- in their last two fixtures before Popovic picks his squad for next January's continental showpiece. Conventional wisdom dictates that this post-Seleção period will see a shift in how Australia's men play, with an extended period of AFC opposition now looming. Taking up the mantle of favouritism, it's assumed they'll become a ball-dominant protagonist, tasked with breaking down stubborn low blocks, in trying conditions, against opponents who are adept at grinding and making games a punish. Growth has been a major theme of the analysis of Popovic's tenure following the World Cup, centred on expectations that a perceived handbrake will be removed for these games.
But as this Brazil series showed, it's not just a binary of having the ball or not, but in doing something with it. And, purposeful possession being where Australia finds its improvements within Popovic's framework -- as young players become more confident at the international level and raise their standards following club moves, continuity is built, and extra emphasis is placed on proactivity -- is, in hindsight, obvious.
Across Popovic's tenure, just three of the Socceroos' 12 wins have come when they've had more possession than their opponents: a 3-1 win over China in Adelaide in his first game (73% possession), a 2-0 win over the Chinese in Hangzhou (51% possession), and a 1-0 pre-World Cup friendly win over Cameroon (56% possession). On just two further occasions they've ended the game with more of the ball after scoring first or keeping a clean sheet: a 2-2 draw against Bahrain (59% possession), and the 0-0 draw with Paraguay at the World Cup. Conversely, Popovic's tenure against lower-ranked sides features a 5-1 win over Indonesia in Sydney with 40% of the ball, a 5-1 win over Curaçao in Melbourne with 46% of it, and two wins over New Zealand with 46 and 44% possession.
Under the 53-year-old, the Socceroos are resolute and highly disciplined. They're adept at allowing their opponent to crash against their defensive shape like waves against a cliff. When shots come, they're largely restricted to areas where the danger is minimal, blocked away by a converging mass of green-and-gold. Per Opta, only five nations conceded fewer goals per game than Australia at the recent FIFA World Cup. Only eventual winners Spain conceded fewer expected goals (xG) per shot -- measuring the quality of the chances a side conceded -- than Australia, and they held opponents to a conversion rate of 4.92%, which was bettered only by Spain, Colombia, and Portugal.
WHAT A STRIKE FROM CONNOR METCALFE! 🚀
— Paramount+ Australia (@ParamountPlusAU) September 29, 2026
The hero from the CommBank @socceroos' first 2026 FIFA World Cup match is at it again, rocketing Australia into the lead! 🔥
Watch #AUSvBRA live and exclusive on Paramount+ 📺 pic.twitter.com/PY554vAVRH
Of course, at international level, where the talent pool and time with it are restricted compared to the club game, there will never be a perfect system. Each coach entrusted with the honour of leading a nation will bring their own values and preferred approach, which will carry strengths and weaknesses that necessitate certain trade-offs. Such is the case here, too; the Poparoos' major trade-off that chances have often come at a premium. Opta noted that they produced just 0.73 expected goals (xG) per 90 across the World Cup, while their 0.07 xG per shot was better than just six of the other 47 competing nations. This followed on from a qualification campaign in which the side outperformed their expected goals (xG) by nearly 10 -- 28.5 to 38 -- under Graham Arnold and Popovic.
There's a trend there. The Socceroos game plan doesn't necessitate them having more of the ball, but it does require them to be clinical with it. Thus, if they can find a way to build upon the signs in this Brazil series -- and that's what they were, signs; two games does not make a trend -- while maintaining their existing strengths, then this should lead to an upswing in performances and results. More possession will inevitably come as they embrace more expansive in-possession principles, but what's more important is keeping up this intent.
To expect Popovic to stage a revolution, rather than evolution, to completely move away from the foundation that he's built with this side -- one that earned praise from one of his mentors, Ancelotti -- was never realistic. You don't hire a fish to climb a tree, and you don't hire Popovic to coach like Barça-era Pep Guardiola. It's the responsibility of Football Australia, through its assessment and employment of coaches, that foster an overarching philosophy for its teams. But against Brazil, we saw glimpses of what can be accomplished within his structure; things were starting to open up for the Socceroos.
Now we see if it can be translated to Asian football.