DALLAS, Texas - It's a special thing to make history, to do something nobody has ever done before. There's a type of immortality that comes with it, the knowledge that no matter how many people follow, you'll always be remembered for being the first. In blazing a trail, you've ostensibly made it easier to follow, perhaps not practically, in a footballing context, but certainly on an emotional level. And it should go without saying that, especially through the prism of Australia's clash with Egypt in the Round of 32, you'll have given a gift of untold joy to the millions (or hundreds of millions, in the latter's case) back home.
Either the Socceroos or the Pharaohs will achieve something they've never done before in their history come Friday, both heading to Dallas, Texas, searching for their first-ever win in the knockout stages of the World Cup. Australia has twice been here before, losing to Italy in the Round of 16 in 2006 and then falling to Argentina at the same hurdle in 2022. Egypt, for their part, were technically in the Round of 16 back in 1934 - the first ever African side to play at a World Cup - but only 16 teams were competing, and their campaign ended after one game and a 4-2 loss to Hungary. In their other two appearances, 1990 and 2018, they exited in the group stages.
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It's the relative lack of success on this stage, especially compared to their powerhouse status in Africa, that makes this opportunity such a significant one for the Egyptians. And especially their talisman, Mohamed Salah.
The superstar had entered this tournament as the most famous and celebrated player in Egyptian football history, but was, simultaneously, still looking for a signature achievement on the international stage to, as ESPN's Ed Dove explored, match the likes of Mohamed Aboutrika, Wael Gomaa, Essam El-Hadary, Emad Moteab, Gedo, and Ahmed Fathy in an Egyptian shirt. Thanks to their stirring 3-1 come-from-behind win over New Zealand, in which he netted, he's already helped Egypt end a 92-year wait. But a knockout stage win over Australia, likely setting up a clash with Lionel Messi and Argentina in the Round of 16, would be something else.
Does he play, though? And if he does, just what sort of role can he play against one of the most physically imposing defences at the World Cup? Salah was forced off in the 57th minute of the Pharaohs' 1-1 draw with Iran that secured them progression, with what was later diagnosed as a hamstring strain. He immediately entered an intensive rehabilitation program to get him prepared for the Socceroos and resumed limited training on Tuesday. He won't be at 100% regardless, but 80% of Salah is still better than most attackers around the world, and one would think that if he's capable of standing under his power, he's going to make himself available to play.
Regardless of whether Salah plays or if he's limited, his absence will place a greater onus on Manchester City forward Omar Marmoush, who has yet to make his mark on this tournament and will likely return to the XI after being benched against Iran for Pyramids FC's Mostafa Ziko. They're both significantly bigger names than Alessandro Circati, Lucas Herrington, and Harry Souttar, but one imagines the international awareness of that trio, and especially Circati and Herrington, will only grow if they can shut the door.
And while there's a sense of destiny surrounding Egypt, on the last ride of Salah on this stage, there's also a reason to be hopeful for the Socceroos, reasons to believe that they can usurp the leading role and themselves book a place in Atlanta in the Round of 16.
On both previous occasions Australia has reached the knockout stages, they've faced off with a group winner. And not just any group winner, but, in Italy in 2006 and Argentina in 2022, a group winner that went on to win the whole tournament itself. Perhaps this will serve to provide an added bit of motivation for Egyptian fans of a more superstitious bent, but it shows that the Pharaohs - who finished second in Group G and were one disallowed Shoja Khalilzadeh 93rd-minute winner away from finishing third - are, impartially, the least credentialled.
On a more contemporary level, Opta, which provides as close as we're ever going to get to an objective measure, has given the African powers a 54.34% chance of progressing before a ball is kicked, compared to the 45.66% chance it gave the Socceroos. In other words, those without an emotional investment in the game see it as almost a complete toss-up, with no other game as tightly contested as this one.
And perhaps somewhat ominously for the Egyptians, given that Jordan Bos seemingly played himself into form on the right against Paraguay, left-back Ahmed Fatouh has suffered what team doctor Dr Mohamed Abou El-Ela described as a "hamstring tear" on the federation's website and is unlikely to play. Nice centre-back Mohamed Abdelmonem, meanwhile, was forced off early against the Iranians with a knee injury and is racing to be fit, while midfielder Mohanad Lasheen definitely won't play after picking up a suspension for yellow card accumulation. Hossam Abdelmaguid and Hamdy Fathy are also under clouds, but coach Hossam Hassan is confident the latter will return after missing the clash with Iran, telling BeIn Sports, "I have warriors. I have Egyptian players who are worthy of the trust placed in them."
Really, if the Socceroos are to claim victory, the formula is well established. They'll present a well-organised, desperate, and scrambling defence that will make an opponent work for everything. Their midfield will be workmanlike, winning duels, screening the defence, and then trying to arrive late into the box after linking defence and attack. And the frontline will attempt to exploit any moment of opportunity or weakness using its collection of exciting, game-breaking talent, with speed to burn and a boldness to back themselves. Given the size of the squad, set pieces will serve as a weapon, too, even if those guns have fallen silent as of late.
It probably won't be high-scoring and, if it is, it's likely going Egypt's way. The Socceroos haven't scored since their 2-0 win over Türkiye on the opening fixture of the tournament, and under Tony Popovic, they aren't a side built to chase games and engage with shootouts. It may very well come back to haunt them at some point (possibly as soon as this game), but this is a side built around doing enough, figuring out what he needs to do to win and then pursuing that goal with a collective resoluteness and belief that, on its day, is unassuageable. And it's got them into the knockouts so far.
And as much as Friday could be historic for Salah and Egypt, it could be momentous for Australia, too. Sure, there are quibbles to be raised between the Round of 32 in an expanded tournament and the Round of 16, but a knockout win is a knockout win. Did Japan's exit hurt any less because it came in the Round of 32? Would they have turned down the first knockout win in their history simply because of a format change? While football is a religion in Egypt, it's still a secondary sport in Australia, but with the country swept up in quadrennial World Cup fever, packing into live sites across the country and setting ratings records, a win on Friday (Saturday 4am AEST) would be one of the biggest in the nation's sporting history.
"It's a moment to create history," said Circati. "To create something that Australia won't forget as a nation."