Just one game stands between the remaining four sides left standing in the A-League Men and a Grand Final, and, in practice, they are in pretty much the same position they were in a week ago. After 1-1 draws at Mt Smart Stadium and the Sydney Football Stadium, Adelaide United and Auckland FC, as well as the Newcastle Jets and Sydney FC, will enter the second leg of their semifinal encounters level on aggregate and, thanks to football's shift from the away goals rule, completely level. But even stalemates carry their own ramifications.
Heading into the second legs at Hindmarsh Stadium and McDonald Jones Stadium, one would thus think it's advantage, Reds and Jets. Not only are they the two higher seeds in the matchups, but now they get to play the return leg -- which will carry with them the possibility of extra-time and penalties -- in front of their home fans. It's not a gigantic advantage, to be clear, and given that Auckland and Sydney were the second- and third-best away sides, respectively, in the league across the course of the season, there's still plenty of work to do.
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Yet given the stakes and the pressure that is being heaped across two young sides that probably didn't expect to absorb so much expectation when their campaigns began with relatively little fanfare, it's an advantage they'll likely gladly accept. The youngest (Newcastle) and fourth youngest (Adelaide) sides in the A-League Men this season, and both being led by rookie coaches, a level of unknown awaited both heading into the weekend. How would they perform under the bright lights of finals football, when the intensity and physicality ratchet up? How would they respond in the face of adversity, such as going a goal down?
Well, both came from behind to snatch an equaliser and gave as good as they got in bruising, high-intensity affairs. A small, if major, test passed.
Of course, don't try to tell Adelaide's first-year coach Airton Andrioli that teenager Harry Crawford's equaliser has given his side something of an advantage.
"I don't believe in favouritism," he said on Saturday. "I don't believe in underdogs. It's an equally matched game of football."
Given the nature of post-game press conferences, that was likely just as much a message for his own side as an attempt to deny bulletin board material to the Kiwis, exhorting them not to get too far ahead of themselves heading into this Friday's second leg in South Australia.
One nitpick with that, though, is that the two sides might not actually be all that evenly matched. When it comes to fitness, at least. While Craig Goodwin continues to build his minutes and co-Golden Boot winner Luka Jovanovic is back from suspension for the Reds, Steve Corica's side face the prospect of being without Guillermo May after the Uruguayan suffered a rolled ankle and was forced off in the first leg, while Hiroki Sakai, though able to get through 90 minutes, experienced problems with his groin in the warm-up. Francis de Vries is only just back from a calf-enforced absence, while co-Golden Boot winner Sam Cosgrove is playing with a ruptured ligament in his ankle.
Combine this with Auckland not having won a game inside 90 minutes since March, the Reds possessing the best home record in the entire A-League Men, and Hindmarsh already being sold out for the second leg, and it's no wonder Corica had his own views on where expectation lies.
"Next week, the pressure's on them," the coach said.
Now, one can't say that it's a free hit for Auckland, not when they're owned by a billionaire, packed with talent, and have clearly constructed a squad to win now, but they'll likely manufacture that spirit in the dressing room.
Indeed, if you had to pick, things are probably looking better for Corica's former employer heading into the weekend. Though Eli Adams swiftly cancelled out Apostolos Stamatelopoulos' opener, the Sky Blues will only need to make the short trek up the highway for the second leg of their semifinal -- ensuring that their fans will have a realistic opportunity to bring a presence. While one wouldn't say that Sydney FC been swashbuckling, or even pretty to watch, since Patrick Kisnorbo landed after Ufuk Talay's ouster, they are undefeated in all six-games the former Socceroos defender has led them in, and conceded just three goals across that stretch.
As one would expect, there's a greater level of physical application and organisation under Kisnorbo, and while Joe Lolley can't be counted on to carry a significant load after making his long-awaited return, the coach's moves to bring in Wataru Kamijo and Akol Akon over other, more experienced heads are being rewarded across the finals thus far. Reports suggest Sydney is locked in on a foreign coach for next season, but if Kisnorbo isn't able to make them change their minds, he's probably doing enough to ensure he'll get a look-in for A-League roles not based in Victoria in the near future.
Still, with the tie locked at 1-1, the Jets' pursuit of a domestic treble remains on track. Their crowds having increased 46% this season, McDonald Jones should be rocking for the second leg. And after Adams' equaliser, the dynamics of the game won't begin with them seeking to overturn a deficit, which could prove vital.
While the Jets do have the third-highest average possession in the A-League Men this season at 53.3%, their record in games in which they have less of the ball is actually far superior to when they do have it -- Saturday's semifinal was the first time all season in which they've failed to win a game after having 50% or less, after winning their previous nine fixtures. The Jets have picked up six wins in their remaining 17 games, but just one of those has arrived in a fixture in which they've had 55% of possession or more -- a 4-1 win over a free-falling Brisbane Roar in January -- compared to seven of their eight losses coming in such fixtures.
Correlation does not guarantee causation, of course. And there are individual nuances that go into deciding every game of football. On some occasions, for instance, the Jets will have won a game in which they had fewer possessions not so much because of this scarcity but because they were in a position to win and, thus, their opponents had to chase the fixture. But while the expectation will be that they're the proactive team in Saturday's second leg, Adams' equaliser ensures they'll be able to do so within a more familiar framework.
It's finely poised but the young Jets, and young Reds, have given themselves every chance.