Let's review. Bayern, the 10-time defending league champion, has managed to bring in major talent in this transfer window, but they also lost the best centre-forward in the world in the process. Meanwhile, the rest of last year's top four has either brought in exciting talent as well (Borussia Dortmund) or has actually kept its most exciting players in town for another season (RB Leipzig, Bayer Leverkusen).
Bayern could be ready to roll to another title in Julian Nagelsmann's second season in charge. Caesars Sportsbook gives the champs -500 betting odds, equivalent to an 83% chance, while FiveThirtyEight's projections, typically rather conservative at the beginning of a given season, still give them a 71% chance. (RBL has odds equivalent to about 8% from both the books and 538.) But on Saturday, we might learn a thing or two about the challenges the champs could face.
What last season taught us
Plenty has changed, but here are three relevant takeaways from last year's Bundesliga statistics:
RBL topped the table in 2022. Here is the top of the league table for the second half of last season, or Ruckrunde.
1. RB Leipzig: 36 points (+27 goal differential)
2. Bayer Leverkusen: 36 (+21)
3. Borussia Dortmund: 35 (+18)
4. Bayern Munich: 34 (+20)
5. Union Berlin: 30 (+4)
Injuries and plain-old iffy form rendered Bayern rather mortal in the new calendar year, particularly in midfield, and that remained the case even after their surprising Champions League quarterfinal elimination against Villarreal. Because they had built a nine-point lead at the halfway point, they were able to fend off any serious challenges and clinch the league title with three matches remaining.
But each of last year's other top-four finishers looked as strong as the champs for most of the home stretch. Can any of them parlay that into a full-season success?
(Probably not. But please keep reading.)
Christopher Nkunku was the best player in Germany. Lewandowski remained the best goal scorer in the Bundesliga, but Nkunku, playing as often as not as a left-centre forward alongside Silva, took his game to a new place. In 52 matches in all competitions, the 24-year old combined 35 goals with 16 assists from 90 chances created. All three figures were the best on the team.
RBL began the season in dreadful fashion, losing three of their first four league matches and heading into the midseason break both in 10th place in the league and already eliminated from the Champions League. But Domenico Tedesco both stabilized their defense and further unlocked Nkunku's potential -- 20 of his 35 goals came after the break -- and reaped the benefits. RBL won the DFB-Pokal, its first major trophy, and reached the semifinals of the Europa League before an upset loss to Rangers.
Bayern was vulnerable in transition. Here are last year's goal differentials in what I call transition possessions: possessions that (a) start outside of the attacking third and (b) last 20 or fewer seconds.
1. Bayer Leverkusen: +0.65 per match (0.94 scored, 0.29 allowed)
Granted, Bayern was only "vulnerable" in that it didn't rank first, but while it flashed plenty of brilliance in quick attacks, opponents were able to catch it out of position in defense. More to the point, both RBL goals during Bayern's 3-2 head-to-head home win in February were scored in transition possessions. Thus far, all of RBL's key transition players -- Nkunku, fellow forward Andre Silva, winger Dominik Szoboszlai, wingback Angelino -- return for 2022-23.
(Were these three takeaways all Leipzig-friendly? Absolutely. Virtually every other statistic was Bayern-friendly, so it was difficult to take anything useful from that.)
Meet the "new" Bayern
Bayern's key departures (stats in all competitions):
MF Ryan Gravenberch (Ajax): 3,110 minutes, three goals, six assists from 38 chances created, 200 ball recoveries
DF Noussair Mazraoui (Ajax): 2,691 minutes, five goals, four assists from 41 chances created, 188 ball recoveries
FW Mathys Tel (Rennes): 81 minutes, one chance created
Potential additions:
MF Konrad Laimer (RB Leipzig): 2,435 minutes, five goals, six assists from 30 chances created, 176 ball recoveries
At first glance, it seems Bayern has done an incredible job of improving last year's primary issues -- transition defense and midfield depth -- while potentially seeing its greatest strength diminished a bit.
The biggest occupier of football headlines in Bavaria in recent months was, of course, Lewandowski's departure for Barcelona, as losing him means losing the surest attacker in the sport. To be sure, Bayern still boasts a bounty of attacking talent -- new addition Sadio Mane, annual Bundesliga assists leader Thomas Muller, wingers Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman, teenage mini-Muller Jamal Musiala and, when the club deems him ready, the 17-year old Tel. But the center of gravity has certainly changed and, while you can come up with a list of potential replacements for most positions on the pitch, there aren't many 50-goal scorers in the world.
"Lewandowski was a big part of the team," left-back Alphonso Davies told ESPN during their preseason U.S. tour. "[He was] a goal-scoring machine. You give him the ball in the air, on the ground, and he'll finish it for you. He's gonna be missed, but I'm sure Julian [Nagelsmann] has a plan in his head."
"There are not so many world-class strikers around," Bayern CEO Oliver Kahn told ESPN, but as one does in the preseason, Kahn attempted to spin a potential negative into a potential positive: without Lewandowski, Bayern can attempt to become less predictable, too. "I think in our team we have so many options, so many possibilities. Additionally, when you look at Julian Nagelsmann, he's a very [tactically] savvy coach, he has many thoughts in his mind. We are very flexible, so this could be hard for our opponents."
