We're now about 36 hours out from the 2026 NFL draft ... and things are going to get wild. As I put together my final mock draft of Round 1, my biggest takeaway is this year is particularly wide open. I take a lot of pride in being as accurate as possible, but I also sort of love that no one has the firmest grasp on what is going to happen Thursday. It means we're going to see surprises. And who doesn't love surprises on draft night? It's reality TV at its finest!
Here's something to remember as we go through all 32 picks. One NFL general manager from a team picking early told me that we can throw positional value out the window this year. The best players in the class include a running back, an off-ball linebacker and a safety. There aren't a ton of elite offensive tackles, edge rushers, corners and receivers, and the only top-tier quarterback is a lock to go No. 1. That leaves chaos in the top 10 and beyond.
But let's try to make some sense of the chaos. Here are my final projections for every first-round pick -- including a few trades to shake things up even more -- based on my latest intel. You can catch me on "The Pat McAfee Show Draft Spectacular" (Thursday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+) to see how it all goes down.
More NFL draft coverage:
Top prospects | Latest mock drafts
1. Las Vegas Raiders
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Frankly, this pick could have been made in January, as soon as Mendoza won the national title and entered the draft. All final mock drafts start at No. 2.
2. New York Jets
David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech
I've had Bailey going to the Jets for the past month, and I have no further intel telling me any different. Ohio State's Arvell Reese is a great player, but I'm sticking with Bailey. New York needs his instant production (14.5 sacks last season) for its lackluster pass rush.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
This could be a trade-down spot, and I believe Arizona is listening. Teams like the Chiefs and Saints could have interest in getting into position to take Reese. But I also think the Cardinals could just take Love. Again, forget about positional value this year -- most people see him as the top player in the draft, and he could be a jolt to the Cards' offense. Love moves the needle for a team trying to get back in the mix in a crowded NFC West.
4. Tennessee Titans
Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
It would be hard for the Titans to not take Reese if he's still available, considering their need at edge rusher. But it'd also be hard for coach Robert Saleh to leave Styles on the board. He is seen as a near guarantee with exciting traits. And remember that Saleh loved having Fred Warner in his defense in San Francisco. Tennessee wants franchise cornerstones, and Styles can be just that.
5. New York Giants
Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State
I haven't seen many mock drafts having Reese slip this far, and maybe he won't. But I also remember Leonard Williams inexplicably falling out of the top five in 2015. These things happen. Edge rusher is not one of the Giants' holes, but the roster needs good football players. Choosing to add the blue-chip prospect makes sense -- especially if New York ends up trading Kayvon Thibodeaux. If the Giants can get Reese, I think they'd take him.
6. Cleveland Browns
Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
The Browns are certainly in the trade-back conversation as they look to add more draft capital. If they stay home at No. 6, there's some love for Fano, who can be a versatile blocker up and down Cleveland's revamped O-line. Fano has allowed just one sack in the past two years, he was a team captain at Utah, and he can be a culture-setter for that unit. But again, keep an eye on the Browns if one of those top edge rushers starts to slide; they could be fielding trade calls.
7. Washington Commanders
Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
There are a lot of good options on the board, including Ohio State safety Caleb Downs. But Washington has to help Jayden Daniels and get this offense back on track. The Commanders scored 20.1 points per game last season but didn't make many WR additions in free agency. The entire receiver class is available here. I think Washington could pair Tate with Terry McLaurin.
8. New Orleans Saints
Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
New Orleans needs a receiver, but it also lost a lot of talent on defense this offseason. Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia said on "The Schrager Hour" that Downs can be the face of a franchise and could immediately become the smartest player for an NFL defense. He had six INTs over the past three seasons and makes plays against the run. Brandon Staley got the most out of Derwin James Jr. in Los Angeles, and he can do the same for Downs in New Orleans.
Projected trade
Chiefs get: No. 12 and No. 20
Cowboys get: No. 9 and No. 29
9. Dallas Cowboys (via projected trade with KC)
Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
OK, our first trade! I could see this happening. After allowing 377 yards per game and letting opponents convert on third down 47.3% of the time -- ranking among the worst in the NFL in both -- Dallas has to get one of the top defensive prospects. It's a necessity. But there's no guarantee any of them -- Downs, Delane, Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. et al -- will still be there at No. 12. This is a chance to guarantee getting one of them and still have another first-round pick. Delane's coverage ability should help stop some of the big plays that doomed the Cowboys in 2025.
Check out some of the top highlights from LSU's Mansoor Delane.
10. New York Giants (via CIN)
Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
General manager Joe Schoen had dinner with Tyson at the end of last week, and I believe there's a chance the Giants take him at No. 5. Going fifth might be too rich, considering Tyson's durability issues (missed 17 of 51 possible games in college). But taking him at the back end of the top 10 with the pick coming back from the Dexter Lawrence II trade is a better value. Tyson could join Malik Nabers, Isaiah Likely and crew to give Jaxson Dart some real options in the pass game.
11. Miami Dolphins
Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Mauigoa has a herniated disk in his back, and teams will have to be comfortable with that. I still think he's a high pick. Mauigoa is an immediate starter, and new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan needs to find a bunch of those. There are a lot of directions Miami could go at No. 11. Right tackle Austin Jackson missed significant time last season, and there are questions on the interior. I could absolutely see this new Dolphins regime shoring up the offensive line and building out from there.
12. Kansas City Chiefs (via projected trade with DAL)
Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami
The Chiefs have done their homework on the edge rushers near the top of this class, and I could even see them trading up instead of down if Bailey or Reese slid just a little bit more. But moving back three spots (while moving up nine spots later in Round 1) and still getting a top-three edge rusher in the class? It'd be a huge win for Kansas City. Bain had 9.5 sacks last season and could slot in opposite George Karlaftis.
Projected trade
Rams get: No. 17, No. 118 and a 2027 second-round pick
Lions get: No. 13
13. Detroit Lions (via projected trade with LAR/ATL)
Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
Taylor Decker was released, and Proctor is still sitting there. So, general manager Brad Holmes might call up his old team and see if the Rams are open for business. Proctor would be a huge presence (6-foot-7, 352 pounds) at left tackle for Jared Goff and the Detroit offense, and taking a left tackle would mean Penei Sewell could stay on the right side.
14. Baltimore Ravens
Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State
The Ravens have always had great success drafting offensive linemen in the first round. And they can lighten the loss of one of those successes (center Tyler Linderbaum, signed in Las Vegas) by taking the best guard on many boards around the league. Ioane is a 6-foot-4, 320-pound mauler, and he could join John Simpson in cleaning up the guard position for Baltimore.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami
Yes, he's 25 years old. Yes, he has an injury history. But Mesidor produces in a massive way (12.5 sacks last season) and is at his best in the biggest games. I loved watching him in the College Football Playoff. Mesidor would immediately upgrade Tampa Bay's defense after that unit allowed 5.7 yards per play in 2025 (25th).
16. New York Jets (via IND)
Makai Lemon, WR, USC
If the Rams don't take Lemon at No. 13 (remember, I have L.A. trading back to No. 17), he could definitely still be here when the Jets are on the clock. He's a tough, smart receiver with a relentlessness to the way he plays. If things fall this way, that means the two New York teams each walk away from the top half of Round 1 with an elite pass rusher and a star receiver. Bailey-Lemon would be compared to Reese-Tyson in East Rutherford for years.
17. Los Angeles Rams (via projected trade with DET)
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
There's a lot of Sadiq intrigue in the Rams' building. They already have multiple contributing tight ends, but that depth chart could look different in a year -- especially since current TE1 Colby Parkinson is a free agent in 2027. Sadiq is an explosive pass catcher who could help Matthew Stafford in a key go-for-it year in L.A., and you know coach Sean McVay would figure out ways to get the ball in Sadiq's hands. This would be the second year in a row that the Rams took an Oregon tight end after going with Terrance Ferguson in Round 2 last April.
18. Minnesota Vikings
Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
The whole industry has been putting Thieneman with Minnesota at No. 18 for weeks. It makes sense. The Vikings need an impact safety, and Thieneman has the speed and instincts to thrive in coordinator Brian Flores' defense. But ... I also think Minnesota could consider Sadiq here if he's still available. T.J. Hockenson is entering a contract year.
Projected trade
Panthers get: No. 28 and No. 69
Texans get: No. 19
19. Houston Texans (via projected trade with CAR)
Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
With three offensive tackles already off the board and a few OT-needy teams coming up, Houston can flip its early Round 3 pick to move up nine spots in Round 1 and get an experienced, reliable right tackle. Miller is steady. And after another OL remake for the Texans, that's what they need. Miller is an immediate starter who can help open run lanes and keep C.J. Stroud clean.
Check out some of the top highlights from Clemson's Blake Miller.
20. Kansas City Chiefs (via projected trade with DAL/GB)
Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana
This would be an A-plus first round for the Chiefs, with Bain and then Cooper. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL, and the receiver room has some issues. Cooper caught 13 touchdowns last season, and I've heard some comps to Deebo Samuel for his toughness and versatility.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
The expectation is Aaron Rodgers will be back. Pittsburgh has to make sure the protection is right with a 42-year-old quarterback, even if Rodgers gets the ball out quickly again. Freeling started for only a season and a half in college, but he's athletic and has a lot of starter-level traits.
22. Los Angeles Chargers
Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn
Don't let the two sacks of last season fool you. Faulk can play. He has all the traits coaches want, and the potential is there. Plus, edge rusher depth is a key need for the Chargers after losing Odafe Oweh.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State
Iheanachor is still relatively new to football, playing it for the first time in 2022. But he is one of the players with the biggest upside in the first round. Considering he is still growing and learning, this could be a home run for the Eagles if they are patient. Iheanachor could be the heir apparent to Lane Johnson, who turns 36 in a few weeks.
24. Cleveland Browns (via JAX)
Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
We've talked about the Browns addressing offensive line and wide receiver in Round 1. They got the tackle at No. 6. Now they would have the choice between Boston and Texas A&M's KC Concepcion. I think Cleveland would prefer the big-bodied frame of Boston; he can be a key red zone target for an offense that mustered just four TD catches from its receiver room last season.
25. Chicago Bears
T.J. Parker, Edge, Clemson
Edge is a big need for Chicago. The Bears have to find someone to create pressure opposite Montez Sweat. We might see a little push for edge rushers at the end of Round 1, and Chicago could land Parker with the hope that he gets back to his 11-sack production of 2024 (he had five in 2025).
26. Buffalo Bills
Peter Woods, DT, Clemson
Buffalo was 30th against the run last season, averaging 5.1 yards allowed per carry, so it should be considering ways to improve that. Woods -- along with Parker, his Clemson teammate -- was getting a ton of buzz heading into the 2025 season, and although his production dipped, he has blue-chip upside. Concepcion would also be interesting here, but I think the Bills go defense.
27. San Francisco 49ers
Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
The 49ers got the Trent Williams contract situation figured out, but he's still going to be 38 years old when the season begins. Strengthening the offensive line in both the long and short term has to be a priority. Lomu didn't get the attention that Fano did at Utah, but he played left tackle for the Utes at a high level over 24 career starts.
28. Carolina Panthers (via projected trade with HOU)
KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
Carolina's trade back would still land the Panthers a do-it-all receiver to complement Offensive Rookie of the Year Tetairoa McMillan in an offense on the upswing. Concepcion went for 919 yards and nine scores last season.
29. Dallas Cowboys (via projected trade with KC/LAR)
Malachi Lawrence, Edge, UCF
Lawrence has quietly risen the board over the past two months, and I wouldn't be surprised if he hears his name late in Round 1. Dallas gets the defense-defense double up that has been predicted for a while, but it does it from two different picks than expected after the projected trade. Lawrence can boost the pass rush; he had seven sacks in 2025.
30. Miami Dolphins (via DEN)
Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
The concerns around McCoy's knee are real, so I think he does go a little later than previously thought. But ... I don't think he falls out of the first round. The Dolphins have 11 picks in this draft, and considering the state of their cornerback room, this is a swing worth taking. When healthy, McCoy can be a difference-maker.
31. New England Patriots
Zion Young, Edge, Missouri
Here's another late-rising edge rusher who should go in Round 1. The Patriots are out of range for an offensive tackle here, so attacking the edge rush makes sense. They had just 35 sacks last season and lost K'Lavon Chaisson in free agency. Young is able to get a ton of pressure on opponent QBs (48 pressures last season, 15th in the FBS).
Projected trade
Seahawks get: No. 34 and No. 183
Cardinals get: No. 32
32. Arizona Cardinals (via projected trade with SEA)
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
I took you all the way to the last pick of the mock draft, but yes, I have Simpson going in Round 1. To move back two spots, the Seahawks would happily add a sixth-round pick in a year when they have only four total selections. And the Cardinals would happily give up that late-rounder to (a) get Simpson and (b) get him with a fifth-year option. Simpson is slated to be in the green room at the draft, and though it might be a long night, I think he will come off the board on Day 1.