The game within the game of the NFL draft is forecasting how it will unfold. Teams build internal models to help figure out when they need to pick a player and how far forward -- or back -- they can trade. For us, it means using ESPN's Draft Day Predictor to figure out the fuller draft picture before it plays out -- and of course, to power our mock draft simulator.
But what is the Draft Day Predictor? It's a model that uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to predict the full range of selection outcomes for top prospects. The accuracy of those measures in past drafts informs the model's outputs for this upcoming draft. The model updates throughout the draft process as mock drafts and grades are updated. It also updates live during the draft as the picks come in -- which means if a player starts to fall, users can see how likely he is to reach their team.
So let's probabilistically break down some storylines ahead of this year's NFL draft using the Draft Day Predictor's latest values. Will Ohio State really have four players drafted in the top 10? How far up will the Cowboys have to move to get a premier defender? And where will consensus No. 2 quarterback Ty Simpson be selected? We get into all of that, plus an analytical look at 40-yard dash times vs. play speed and what it means for this class of receivers.
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Could Ty Simpson fall out of the first round?
Yes, it's possible. The Draft Day Predictor says Simpson has a 43% chance to be available at pick No. 33, the start of the second round. If the Alabama quarterback were to be selected Thursday, the most likely spots are at Nos. 16 (currently the Jets), 21 (Steelers) and 24 (Browns), though he could go at any pick as the result of a trade.
If he lasts until Day 2, pick Nos. 33 and 34 (Jets and Cardinals, respectively) are possibilities. The predictor believes there is a 91% chance Simpson is off the board before 7No. 50.
Is Jeremiyah Love a lock to go to the Titans at No. 4? If not there, where?
Love has a 45% chance to be selected at No. 4 (by the Titans or whichever team trades into that spot). That is a very strong number for any player to go at an individual pick, but it also means there's a better chance the Notre Dame running back will not be picked at No. 4.
So where would Love go if not at No. 4? Well, there's a real chance he's already off the board at that point, with a 21% chance he's picked before then. That echoes a report from ESPN's Adam Schefter on Monday that Love is in play for the Cardinals at No. 3. If he makes it past Nos. 3 and No. 4, then he would be a major candidate to go at No. 5. The predictor currently gives Love a 24% chance to be selected at No. 5 (currently the Giants), which is his second-most-likely landing spot.
How far would the Cowboys have to trade up to land Sonny Styles or Caleb Downs?
There's a sense the Cowboys could move up in the first round for a premium defender as they chase the ghost of Micah Parsons. In fact, that's what Mel Kiper Jr. had them doing in his latest mock draft. If Dallas is targeting the Ohio State standouts, how far does it need to trade up?
Right now, Styles is most likely to be selected at No. 5 -- currently the Giants' pick. The predictor thinks there's a 90% chance that the star linebacker will make it to that spot, so the Giants could be a potential trade partner, but that would require the Cowboys making an in-division deal and would mean New York would have to be willing to let Styles go elsewhere.
Given those ifs, the Cowboys might have to go all the way up to the Titans at No. 4 to virtually guarantee they could land Styles. Of course, Dallas could roll the dice and wait -- Styles has a 43% chance to last until the Saints at No. 8, for example -- but that strategy comes with no promises.
Downs would require a similar trade. There's a 92% chance he's on the board at No. 5, but the OSU safety is a candidate to be taken by the Giants there, too. His most likely landing spot is No. 6 (currently the Browns), with a 27% chance he's selected at that spot. Cleveland or Washington (No. 7) could be logical trade partners for Dallas, though the Commanders have the same intradivision trade concerns the Giants do.
Dallas probably can't wait longer than that because Downs has a more concentrated range of outcomes than Styles and has only a 24% chance to still be available at No. 8.
Stephen A. Smith and Mel Kiper Jr. discuss how the Cowboys can maneuver to select Sonny Styles in the NFL draft.
Will Ohio State have four players selected in the top 10?
The Buckeyes are chasing history in this draft, with a chance to have four players -- linebacker Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs and wide receiver Carnell Tate -- selected in the top 10. If they can pull it off, it would be only the second time in the common draft era that a school had four top-10 players selected in the same draft (Michigan State, 1967).
And Ohio State has a very good chance to do it. According to the Draft Day Predictor, there is a 76% chance the Buckeyes pull it off. In fact, there's a 31% chance they have four players selected in the top eight.
Can the Eagles find A.J. Brown's replacement at No. 23?
In light of Monday's news from Adam Schefter that Brown will likely be traded to the Patriots after June 1, the Eagles' first-round pick (No. 23) could easily be used on a wide receiver. But who will be available? The good news, according to the Draft Day Predictor, is that there is a 96% chance that at least one of Omar Cooper Jr. (Indiana), KC Concepcion (Texas A&M) or Denzel Boston (Washington) is on the board at that point.
In fact, that's so likely that the Eagles could probably afford to trade back and land one of those receivers. There is a 60% chance that at least one of them is available at No. 32.
That said, the Eagles would likely have to trade up if they want one of the higher-ranked wide receivers -- Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State) or Makai Lemon (USC).
Adam Schefter reports that the Eagles are likely to deal A.J. Brown to the Patriots after June 1.
Can the Browns wait until No. 24 to take a top-tier tackle?
Addressing tackle early would be a logical move for Cleveland, and the Browns have multiple first-round picks to work with. But if they want one of Francis Mauigoa (Miami), Monroe Freeling (Georgia), Kadyn Proctor (Alabama) or Spencer Fano (Utah), then No. 24 is likely too late. There is only a 9% chance any of those four players slips to No. 24.
That doesn't mean they can't take a tackle at that spot, but they might have to jump down a tier. Caleb Lomu (Utah) has a 76% chance to be available at 24 and Blake Miller (Clemson) is at 78%. Arizona State's Max Iheanachor (99%) would almost certainly be on the board, too.
The alternative could be for the Browns to take a tackle with their first pick and try to land a wide receiver at No. 24. But that comes with a similar dilemma, like we detailed above with the Eagles -- the top-tier wideouts will be gone by then. But the Browns should have a choice between Cooper, Concepcion and Boston if they want.
After trading Trent McDuffie, are the Chiefs better positioned to take a CB at No. 9 or 29?
The answer is probably both. If the Chiefs want to take the top cornerback in the draft, they are well positioned to do that at No. 9. That player is likely LSU's Mansoor Delane, who has a 79% chance to still be available, with Tennessee's Jermod McCoy (98%) almost certain to be on the board, too.
If the Chiefs wait, they'll be looking at a different caliber of player, but there should be several to choose from at No. 29. At least a couple of Tennessee's Colton Hood (64% chance to be available), Clemson's Avieon Terrell (77%), San Diego State's Chris Johnson (77%) or South Carolina's Brandon Cisse (93%) could be options. That kind of flexibility means Kansas City could look at other positions at No. 9.
Which fringe first-rounders could sneak into Day 1?
If we're looking for some players who are long shots but still feasible first-rounders, here is who the predictor sees as having a 10% to 20% chance to go in the first round. That group includes Oklahoma edge rusher R Mason Thomas (20%), Georgia DT Christen Miller (20%), Brandon Cisse (13%), Clemson edge rusher T.J. Parker (13%), Max Iheanachor (13%) and Vanderbilt tight end Eli Stowers (11%).
If anything, that's probably light on Iheanachor at the moment, given that his betting line is -320 to go in the first round, according to DraftKings, even higher than players such as Ty Simpson and Denzel Boston.
Which fan bases have fallen most in love with a prospect?
Our draft simulator, powered by the Draft Day Predictor, lets fans make selections for any team. And we can see how often users select each player at each slot. So which players are constantly being selected by their armchair GMs?
Rams users selected Lemon at pick No. 13 a massive 43% time, which stood out. As did the 42% of Vikings users who picked Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman. But the number that really jumped out to me was the 49% of Texans fans selecting Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald at No. 28. That's a heck of a consensus for trench play that deep into the first round!
Quick hitters!
What are the chances multiple running backs are selected in the first round? 5%.
What are the chances either Tyson or Lemon last to No. 16 (Jets)? 40%.
Which of these edges is most likely to be a first-rounder -- Keldric Faulk (Auburn), Zion Young (Missouri) or Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)? Faulk (70%).
Who will be the No. 2 pick (presumably by the Jets)? The Predictor leans Reese (64%) over Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey (28%).
When will LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier be selected? The predictor gives him a 65% chance to be selected in Round 3.
Telemetry: 40 speed vs. game speed
Puka Nacua's 40-yard dash time at his 2023 pro day (4.56 seconds) wasn't particularly impressive. That's especially true considering pro day 40s are often a couple hundredths faster than those at the combine, making Nacua's time more akin to a 4.59 or 4.60 at the combine. It's possible that was one of the reasons the then-BYU receiver wasn't selected until the fifth round of that year's draft.
But while Nacua certainly wasn't fast for a soon-to-be NFL wide receiver, what if there were signs that his 40 time was underestimating his speed? Because in 2022, Nacua ranked in the 91st percentile in play speed, according to Telemetry Sports, a third-party player-tracking analytics platform that is part of Teamworks.
That metric allows us to create a play-speed-adjusted 40 times for wide receivers. For Nacua, that would have been a 4.53 combine equivalent. That number wouldn't have made him a first-rounder, but could it have bumped him up a few picks? It's possible.
Play speed is a composite of several performance metrics such as top-end speed, speed over expected and acceleration. And a model that combines it with 40 times better predicts NFL speed -- in this case, the average of a wide receiver's five fastest speeds on pass plays in their first four seasons -- than 40 times alone. We can then convert that prediction back into a 40-time scale. Players who ran only at their pro day had their times increased by .034 seconds, the average difference among wide receivers in our dataset who ran at both the combine and their pro day.
The differences aren't often drastic, but they can be notable. For example, Brandon Aiyuk ran a 4.50 at the combine in 2020 but had a play-speed-adjusted 40 time of a 4.43. On the flip side, another 49ers first-round draft choice, Ricky Pearsall, ran a 4.41 at the combine in 2024. But his play-speed-adjusted 40 time was 4.60 -- the largest downturn for any player in our dataset (dating to 2020).
On the chart below, players to the right of the center line had a faster play-speed-adjusted 40 time than their actual 40 time. Players to the left of the center line had a slower play-speed-adjusted 40 than their actual 40 time. Past predictions were made out of sample (meaning the model didn't know the results in advance).
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) April 20, 2026
So, what does this mean for the class of 2026? Two of the top receivers stand out in this measure.
Cooper ran a 4.42 at the combine this year, but his play-speed-adjusted 40 time is 4.36. Lemon ran between a 4.46 and a 4.53, according to reports, but even if the model assumes that his pro day time was a 4.46, it makes his play-speed-adjusted 40 a 4.56. Speed alone isn't everything, but if we think of Cooper as a 4.36 player and Lemon as a 4.56 player, does that alter their NFL forecast a bit? Probably!
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) April 20, 2026