We're down to the final day of the regular season and still have two playoff spots to decide. The Cleveland Guardians clinched the AL Central on Saturday night while the Philadelphia Phillies are trying to avoid an epic collapse in the NL wild-card race.
Let's run down what's at stake on the final day, in the playoff races and on the individual side of things.
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Playoff races
NL wild card
San Diego Padres: 90-71 (vs. Arizona)
Chicago Cubs: 88-73 (vs. Boston in Tampa)
Philadelphia Phillies: 87-74 (vs. Tampa Bay)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 86-75 (at San Diego)
Tiebreakers: Cubs over Phillies; Diamondbacks over Phillies
The Padres clinched the No. 4 seed with their win on Saturday night over the Diamondbacks, snapping Arizona's six-game winning streak. That means the Padres get to host the wild-card series against the Cubs, a clear advantage since San Diego is 50-30 at home and 40-41 on the road. Clinching before Sunday was big as well, since they can now rest all their top relievers for a couple days before the playoffs begin Tuesday.
The Cubs can't be too happy. The game against the Red Sox had been rescheduled for Tampa due to the storm pelting the Northeast, but since the Cubs own the tiebreaker over the Phillies, it's now a completely meaningless game for both teams.
Boos rained down on the Phillies from their home fans in a sorry 12-1 loss to the Rays on Saturday. They've scored three runs in losing four games in a row, have gone 9-14 in September, and have hit just .220/.299/.341 in the month, the worst OPS in the majors. But they still control their own destiny. Unfortunately, not clinching means they now have to start Zack Wheeler on Sunday, which will make him unavailable for the wild-card series, unless he starts Game 3 on short rest. Cristopher Sanchez started Friday, so he presumably won't be ready until Game 2, leaving Aaron Nola -- who started and pitched one inning on Saturday, allowing three runs -- as the likely Game 1 starter among currently healthy options if the Phillies get there. Manager Don Mattingly added that Jesus Luzardo, who hasn't pitched since Sept. 7, could be used on Sunday, which would make him available for the wild-card series if he isn't used.
The Diamondbacks need to beat the Padres and have the Phillies lose to get in. The Diamondbacks and Phillies split their season series, but the Diamondbacks own the tiebreaker by virtue of a better intradivision record. (They're 32-19 against the NL West while the Phillies finished 28-24 against the NL East.) The Diamondbacks played a sloppy game on Saturday, with outfielders losing two balls in the lights, and will send Michael Soroka to the mound Sunday against Randy Vasquez for the Padres. Arizona ace Eduardo Rodriguez started Thursday, so he's lined up for Game 1 of the wild-card series if the Diamondbacks advance.
AL West race
Houston Astros: 80-81 (at Athletics)
Texas Rangers: 80-81 (at Twins)
Tiebreaker: Astros over Rangers
Well, we're guaranteed a non-winning division winner for the first time in MLB history. The worst record for a division winner belongs to the 2005 Padres, who took the NL West with an 82-80 record. The Astros win the division with a victory on Sunday or a Rangers loss. Houston did win 13-2 on Saturday -- but haven't won two games in a row since Sept. 2-4.
The Astros start Peter Lambert against Seth Johnson, in a bullpen game for both teams. Lambert started on Thursday against the A's and threw 62 pitches, allowing four runs in 2⅔ innings, so he'll be pitching on two days' rest, hoping to go a couple of innings before the Astros turn the game over to their bullpen. No doubt, Joe Espada will try to get more than one inning from his top relievers, Bryan Abreu and especially Josh Hader.
The Rangers will start MacKenzie Gore, who allowed two runs in five innings in his last start but has had abbreviated outings of late, pitching just 11 innings across his three previous starts. Expect a run of relievers for the Rangers. Their top guys all pitched in Saturday's win over the Twins but weren't needed in Friday's blowout loss, so there are no major usage issues to worry about there.
AL Central race
Cleveland Guardians: 85-76
Chicago White Sox: 83-78
The Guardians clinched on Saturday with a win over Kansas City combined with the White Sox losing to the Rockies.
Winning the division was huge for Cleveland. First, the Guardians get the No. 2 seed and a bye into the division series and the opportunity to rest their pitching staff. It also saves manager Stephen Vogt from having to decide whether to use rookie ace Parker Messick on Sunday to clinch the division. Conceivably, Messick might have started and the Guardians still could have lost the division which would have left Messick then unavailable for the wild-card series. Now he'll be more than ready for Game 1 of the ALDS.
The White Sox, meanwhile, will give all their top pitchers some much needed rest to get ready for the AL West winner on Tuesday.
National League seeding
Milwaukee Brewers: 102-59
Los Angeles Dodgers: 99-62
Atlanta Braves: 94-67
The Brewers clinched the top seed last Thursday and will play the winner of the Padres-Cubs series while the Dodgers will play the winner of the Braves and Phillies/Diamondbacks.
How has the top overall seed done in the postseason? While baseball's playoffs are widely regarded as more of a random tournament than other sports, over the past 10 seasons, four of the top teams did win the World Series and two others reached it. Of course, there have always been the anomalies like 2021 when the Braves won it all after finishing the regular season with the 12th-best record in the majors, or 2023, when we had a wild-card matchup between the Rangers (tied for sixth-best record) and Diamondbacks (tied for 12th).
Jacob Misiorowski will start Sunday for the Brewers. He last pitched a week ago, when he threw 44 pitches in three innings while pitching on four days' rest for the first time since July 7. The first game of the NLDS won't be until next Saturday, so that would give Misiorowski five days of rest before his Game 1 start. Like his last outing, it might be an abbreviated outing to keep him as fresh as possible for that game.
Of note: The NL division series schedules have one fewer off day than the AL series, with off days after Games 2 and 4, so Misiorowski would likely return in a potential Game 5, pitching on five days' rest. In the AL, the Game 1 starter could return for Game 4 on four days' rest. For the Brewers, that also means they will need four starters in the NLDS, when only Misiorowski and Logan Henderson look dependable right now. Dustin May hasn't gone more than three innings in any of his past three starts, which could push Robert Gasser into the No. 3 hole. Kyle Harrison did pitch two scoreless innings on Saturday, but he had been so bad in recent outings that he's likely just a candidate for the bullpen.
What else is at stake
Yordan Alvarez tries to lock up the MVP
A few weeks ago, this was a Triple Crown chase, but now the Astros slugger will likely have to settle for the MVP Award instead. The question: Do the Astros need to win the division for him to win? I don't think so. While we're likely to see a scattered vote, with Alvarez, Junior Caminero, Bobby Witt Jr. and maybe Cam Schlittler all receiving first-place votes, Alvarez is probably the only player who is going to land first or second on just about every ballot. Alvarez (.316) does hold a 10-point lead over Chandler Simpson (.306) for the batting title and is one home run behind Pete Alonso, so he could still take two of the three Triple Crown categories.
Other statistical races
AL home run race: Alonso has 43 while Alvarez and Caminero have 42. Ben Rice has 41.
NL home run race: Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Schwarber are tied with 45. Schwarber is looking to lead for the second straight season and third time since he joined the Phillies in 2022. He's one of those Phillies mired in a deep slump, though: He hasn't homered in 10 games.
NL batting race: Gabriel Moreno (.311) has overtaken Luis Arraez (.310), who hasn't played since spraining his ankle on Thursday. Arraez is going for his fourth batting crown while Moreno would be the first catcher to lead since Buster Posey in 2012.
Alonso chasing history: With an eight-RBI lead over Alvarez, he'll become the first player to lead both leagues in RBIs after leading the NL with 131 in 2022 while with the Mets.
NL RBI race: Alec Burleson (116) leads Sal Stewart (111) after driving in runs in four consecutive games. Stewart was trying to become the first rookie to lead his league since Walt Dropo of the 1950 Red Sox (some guy named Ted Williams is the only other rookie to do it).
MLB strikeout leader: Cleveland's Gavin Williams leads Misiorowski, 248 to 247, so Miz should pass him even with an abbreviated appearance on Sunday. Misiorowski also leads Schlittler for the overall MLB lead in ERA, 1.86 to 1.94.
A swing and a miss: Colston Montgomery has already broken Mark Reynolds' strikeout record, whiffing 225 times to Reynolds' 223.
Saying goodbye to Justin Verlander ... and now Max Scherzer?
Justin Verlander had an emotional goodbye on Saturday in Detroit and now Sunday may be the final appearance for Scherzer, who will start for the Blue Jays. Scherzer has yet to announce his retirement, saying this week that he's going to make his decision in the offseason.
"I've gone through ups and downs throughout the season, I get it, but I've gotten to the point where I'm pretty healthy," he said on Saturday. "I've talked to everybody in my inner circle and we all kind of feel the same way. We don't need to make a decision today. Get to the offseason and see how things unfold."
Verlander looked like a potential 300-game winner back in 2019, when he had 225 wins through his age-36 season and was coming off a 21-win and Cy Young season for the Astros. But he pitched just once in the COVID-shortened 2020 season before his elbow surrendered to time and then missed all of 2021. Remarkably, he came back and won another Cy Young Award in 2022 with an 18-win season and career-low 1.75 ERA. Three hundred wins remained a possibility -- and a goal.
But he would go just 22-27 over the next four seasons so finishes with 266 wins, tied with Bob Feller and Eppa Rixey. After Scherzer and his 224, next on the active wins list are Gerrit Cole at 163 and Chris Sale at 159. We're not only not going to see a 300-game winner for ... well, who knows when ... we may not see a 200-game winner for a long time. Indeed, Verlander and Scherzer will go down as perhaps the last of the true workhorses, guys who pitched 200-plus innings -- and more at their peak -- year after year.