ESPN's basketball daily cheat sheet is your pregame destination before you lock in daily fantasy and betting decisions for that night's games. Here you'll find our top insights for the slate, including players to target for your daily fantasy rosters, along with game-by-game injury reports.
Game 5 projections and injury reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs
8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Knicks +5.5 (-112) | Spurs -5.5 (-108)
Money line: Knicks +160 | Spurs -192
Total: 216.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Spurs by 2.3, straight up 57%, 216.6 total points.
Injury report:
Knicks: None reported
Spurs: David Jones Garcia, (OFS - Ankle)
The New York Knicks won their last NBA title back in May 1973. That was 2,770 weeks, or 19,392 days, ago. The San Antonio Spurs will seek to extend that drought at least a few more days as they host a must-win Game 5 on Saturday night.
This marquee matchup, which airs at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC, features two healthy and supremely motivated rosters. The Spurs, famous for getting off to fast starts in this series and throughout the postseason, enter as 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Knicks remain sizable title favorites (-500), but given the odds, there is still work to be done.
A driver of Game 4's comeback was the Knicks' success running Victor Wembanyama into ball screens with Jalen Brunson probing for angles. The volume of those actions created advantages for Brunson and his teammates, taxed Wemby's energy, and pulled him away from protecting the rim. A major early factor will be how the Spurs adjust to that workload and navigate the added gauntlet of screens New York is likely to deploy.
Even as the series sits at 3-1 in New York's favor, the Knicks are up just eight points in the aggregate, signaling how competitive each game has proved to be. This series marks only the third time in NBA history that the first four games of a Finals were all one-possession games in the final two minutes. If there is one consistent element in this series, it is the presence of clutch-time scenarios.
When it comes to evaluating rotation patterns for player props and DFS decisions, the Spurs run the tighter and more predictable rotation. The Knicks, evidenced by Game 4's unexpected inclusion of Jose Alvarado, have a more diverse and challenging set of lineup outcomes to consider.
With an eye toward uncovering compelling betting angles and daily fantasy decisions, let's take a look at the night ahead.
McCormick's bets for Saturday
Josh Hart over 8.5 points (-113)
Save for Game 2's foul-riddled outlier, Hart has averaged 34 minutes and 16 potential rebounds in the other three matchups with the Spurs. We can expect Hart to play a major role in this important fifth matchup. Hart serves an important two-way role as a glue guy and connector, but most relevant to this play, as a physical and freelancing rebounder known for dashing around the court for loose balls. With the minutes and rebounding opportunity rates in his favor, a more up-tempo environment in San Antonio could aid Hart's work on the glass.
Total over 216.5 points (-110)
Both teams have shown volatile shooting and improved efficiency since Game 1. Pace and shot quality are expected to rise, especially with a louder home environment and more urgency from San Antonio. The Spurs have been elite to open games and have struggled to maintain success in second halves of this series. The key is the team's ability to get into transition and set the tempo more readily at home, where splits suggest such trends could surface. Even as the strategic adjustments and defensive effort and positioning have been excellent in this series from both teams, we are due for some positive regression in offensive efficiency and even transition volume.
Top Daily Fantasy values of the day
$15,000+ Salaries
Jalen Brunson, PG, New York Knicks ($16,500)
The clear chalk play is building around Wembanyama for nearly 25% more than Brunson, but I'm letting recency bias play a role. Wemby has floated around 60 DraftKings points ever since that epic series-opening opus against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference finals. Brunson, meanwhile, nearly hit 60 fantasy points in Game 4, and again has a path to volume given the team's newfound screening success. Finding a way to go "stars and scrubs" with both superstars is an intriguing, if very challenging, path.
$11,000-$14,900 Salaries
Stephon Castle, SG, San Antonio Spurs ($13,200)
Through four games, Karl-Anthony Towns has been the more productive secondary option. Castle, however, is due for a big line. Not only are the touches and usage there for Castle to deliver, but it's likely we'll see more downhill rim pressure from him to punish the Knicks' lack of traditional rim protection in most lineups.
$1,500-$10,900 Salaries
Josh Hart, SG, New York Knicks ($10,500)
The irony of Hart being listed at shooting guard is not lost on me. After all, Hart is the guy who can make a massive impact in real and fantasy terms without needing much shooting. Then again, he will have to shoot given the Spurs' neglecting to shade or close-out against him in the half-court on catch-and-shoot looks. Which is to say, Hart will get open looks and play out his energy role on both sides of the floor.