MLB betting tips for Sunday: Stick with Michael Busch against the Giants outfield

Michael Busch faces a favorable matchup with the San Francisco Giants' outfield defense. Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Sunday's top batter prop bets

Matt Chapman | OVER 0.5 HR (+640)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.26 EV

Mike Trout | OVER 0.5 HR (+374)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.54 EV

Michael Busch | OVER 0.5 RBI (+207)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.75 EV

Bryan Reynolds | OVER 0.5 RBI (+219)
Projection: 36% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.68 EV

Blake Perkins | UNDER 1.5 TB (-113)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.62 EV

Sunday's top pitcher prop bets

Bubba Chandler | UNDER 2.5 ER (+101)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.97 EV

Trevor McDonald | UNDER 4.5 K (-139)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.15 EV

Griffin Jax | OVER 4.5 K (+117)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.40 EV

Cade Cavalli | UNDER 4.5 K (-125)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.22 EV

Jacob deGrom | UNDER 1.5 ER (+109)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.54 EV

The BAT X Team Projections

Top Betting Trends

San Diego Padres Game Total UNDER:
Seven straight Padres home games have gone under the total. (+7.00 Units / 93% ROI). Current odds: 7.5 @ -103

Washington Nationals Moneyline:
The Nationals have won this bet in 13 of their last 20 away games. (13-7) (+9.95 Units / 50% ROI). Current odds: +109

Houston Astros Team Total OVER:
The Astros have won this bet in 12 of their last 15 games. (+9.15 Units / 54% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ +105