All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Saturday's top batter prop bets
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+620)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $35.07 EV
Jo Adell | OVER 0.5 HR (+508)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.86 EV
Miguel Vargas | OVER 0.5 RBI (+195)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.02 EV
Curtis Mead | OVER 0.5 RBI (+229)
Projection: 35% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.58 EV
Edmundo Sosa | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+108)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.99 EV
Saturday's top pitcher prop bets
Braxton Ashcraft | UNDER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.31 EV
Aaron Nola | OVER 5.5 K (-152)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.37 EV
Kyle Freeland | OVER 4.5 K (-111)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.43 EV
Chase Burns | UNDER 2.5 ER (-151)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.74 EV
Luis Castillo | UNDER 5.5 K (-147)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.92 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.
Cincinnati Reds Game Total OVER:
The past seven Reds games have gone over the pregame total.
Philadelphia Phillies Game Total OVER:
The past five Phillies home games have gone over the pregame total.
New York Yankees Run Line:
The Yankees have covered the pregame run line in 15 of their past 20 games