All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Friday's top batter prop bets
Marcell Ozuna | OVER 0.5 HR (+920)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Wrigley Field has the ninth-shallowest fences in the majors. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallower fences.
Jose Altuve | OVER 0.5 RBI (+231)
Projection: 34% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Altuve has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season, up to an average 87.2 mph from last season's 85.1.
Carter Jensen | UNDER 0.5 H (+200)
Projection: 44% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.45 EV
One reason to bet this: The Chicago White Sox have the fourth-strongest infield defense in MLB, which should help to limit hits.
Friday's top pitcher prop bets
Chase Burns | UNDER 1.5 ER (+109)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.18 EV
One reason to bet this: Burns has had some very poor luck with his ERA since debuting last season as his 3.81 rate is inflated compared to his 2.69 FIP.
J.T. Ginn | UNDER 1.5 ER (+109)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Citi Field profiles as the No. 26 park in MLB for batting average.
Dustin May | OVER 4.5 K (-126)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.17 EV
One reason to bet this: Expected starting catcher Pedro Pages grades out as a good pitch framer.
Patrick Corbin | OVER 2.5 ER (+124)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.67 EV
One reason to bet this: As a unit, Minnesota Twins batters have recorded a 15.6-degree launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced stat to measure power skills) since the start of last season, fourth-best in MLB.
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top Betting Trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.
Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
Toronto has gone under for this bet in nine consecutive games. (+9.05 Units / 76% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -125
Atlanta Braves Game Total UNDER:
The Braves have seen the game total go under in eight straight home contests. (+8.00 Units / 90% ROI). Current odds: 8.5 @ -105
St. Louis Cardinals Team Total OVER:
The Cardinals have outscored the team total in five consecutive games. (+5.10 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +120
Cincinnati Reds Team Total UNDER:
In nine of their last 10 home games, the Reds have fallen short of their team total. (+7.65 Units / 58% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ +100