All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Wednesday's top batter prop bets
Willy Adames | OVER 0.5 HR (+630)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.30 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to center at 11.5 mph in this game, second-best of the day for bats.
Jo Adell | OVER 0.5 HR (+470)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.66 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all MLB stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.
Jorge Polanco | UNDER 0.5 H (+150)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.78 EV
One reason to bet this: Citi Field profiles as the No.29 stadium in MLB for lefty BABIP, via my projections.
Wednesday's top pitcher prop bets
Cole Ragans | UNDER 6.5 K (+112)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.46 EV
One reason to bet this: Ragans has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 13.94 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 11.50.
Michael McGreevy | UNDER 3.5 K (+113)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.41 EV
One reason to bet this: It is expected that we will see a huge hitter's umpire (Scott Barry) calling pitches in today's game.
Kyle Bradish | UNDER 6.5 K (-160)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.58 EV
One reason to bet this: The No.3 venue in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, according to my projections, is Guaranteed Rate Field.
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top Betting Trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.
Cincinnati Reds Moneyline:
The Reds are on a five-game road winning streak. (+6.05 Units / 121% ROI). Current odds: +113
Cleveland Guardians 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
Cleveland has gone under in this bet in seven consecutive home games. (+7.20 Units / 97% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -115
New York Yankees Team Total OVER:
The Yankees have outscored the listed team total in each of their last six games. (+6.35 Units / 99% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -120
Washington Nationals Team Total OVER:
Washington has won this bet in six consecutive games. (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -125