The biggest single betting event of the year is here. The Seattle Seahawks will take on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8.
Entering the season, both teams were long shots to win the Lombardi Trophy at 60-1 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yet, here we are. The Patriots will be trying for their seventh title, which would break a tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most Super Bowl wins. The Seahawks are playing in their fourth championship and first since falling to the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX. Seattle won its only Super Bowl the previous season.
The game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, should keep bettors and sportsbooks busy. With an abundance of betting options, here's a one-stop shop where we break it all down and give you the best intel to make your picks.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
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Offensive prop plays | Defensive prop plays
Matt Bowen's QB breakdown
An accurate thrower who delivers the ball with precise location, Drake Maye completed a league-best 72.0% of his passes during the regular season in Josh McDaniels' system. With schemed concepts that open voids in the middle of the field, plus the catch-and-run targets, Maye can play in rhythm while using his high-end pocket mobility to reset his throwing window when he gets pressured. And given his dual-threat traits, Maye produces on designed carries while creating conflict for defenses on scramble attempts, having posted 450 rushing yards this season and another 141 so far in the playoffs.
On the other side, Sam Darnold is an easy fit in coordinator Klint Kubiak's offense, a system that mirrors the run and the passing game on the wide zone action. This allows Darnold to play on schedule at a higher rate, using defined reads to find second- and third-level voids, and he has an elite target in wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Plus, with Darnold's mobility, he can get on the edges on boot concepts, and Kubiak will also set up his quarterback for vertical shot plays.
Bowen's best bets
Darnold OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (-122)
Darnold threw multiple touchdowns in eight regular-season games, and he dropped three on the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game. I like this bet because of Kubiak's ability to script concepts in the high red zone, and Smith-Njigba can create his own separation when the Patriots play man coverage.
Maye OVER 19.5 completions (-108)
The Seahawks are a heavy Cover 2 defense, playing it a league-high 33.1% of opponent dropbacks. That shell coverage limits vertical routes, but it also allows quarterbacks to take the throws that are available underneath. Maye averaged 20.8 completions this season, and he could be forced to throw with more volume if New England trails in the second half.
Darnold longest completion OVER 35.5 yards (-115)
Darnold had two completions of 40 or more yards in the NFC Championship Game and 17 this season of at least 36 yards (including the playoffs). As I said above, Kubiak will scheme those vertical throws. Take your shots to Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed here.
Maye OVER 39.5 rushing yards (-114)
Maye rushed for 65 yards against the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game and has topped the 40-yard mark in three of his past four games. He plays with really good ball carrier vision when he breaks contain, and I believe he will need to make some difference-making plays as a runner to win critical moments versus this Seattle defense.
Darnold OVER 2.5 rushing attempts (+106)
Darnold had only 35 rushing attempts in the regular season (2.1 per game). However, can we get one scramble out of Darnold, plus a couple of kneel-downs at the end of the half or end of the game? Remember, those kneel-downs count as rushing attempts. And I'm taking Seattle to win. Let's make this bet.
Maye anytime TD (+320)
Let's take a shot here, given the juice at +320. Maye rushed for four touchdowns in the regular season, and he added another score in the AFC title game on a designed carry (QB draw). McDaniels can scheme for his quarterback in the low red zone area of the field.
Maye/Darnold combined 450+ pass yards (-119)
Yes, we are looking at two very good defenses in this matchup. But this number feels low, so let's get in on this now before it starts to climb closer to game day. This season, Maye averaged 258.5 passing yards, while Darnold checked in at 238.1.
Mike Clay's most likely TD scorers
Rhamondre Stevenson (+160)
My projection suggests this one should be at +106, so we're getting some nice value on New England's lead back. That lead back designation became very evident last week against Denver when Stevenson played 94% of the offensive snaps (second highest of his career), while handling 25 carries and a pair of targets. Stevenson has yet to find the end zone during the playoffs, but that's somewhat unlucky, as he has 58 touches and the team's lone goal-line carry during the three games.
The Seahawks haven't allowed many touchdowns to running backs this season, but backs have generated a ton of yardage against them lately (124.4 yards per game over their past seven outings), Kyren Williams found the end zone against them last week and opposing backs were targeted a league-high 127 times during the regular season. Don't get me wrong, this is a tough matchup, but that's why we're getting +160 on a player who is a near lock to get the rock when New England approaches the goal line. Interestingly, I also think there's value on TreVeyon Henderson (+550 money line vs. +402 implied), as he should play a larger role in the Super Bowl than he did last week. He averaged 14 touches in his prior eight outings in which Stevenson also played before seeing only three Sunday.
You can find more picks and the full list of odds here.
Ben Solak's offensive prop plays
Drake Maye 20+ completions (-106)
The Seahawks' defense is structured to force checkdowns and prevent the big play. Maye has been an explosive passer this season, but no defense has forced a shallower depth of target than Seattle's 6.5 yards. If the Patriots stay dropback heavy, expect Maye to take more checkdowns in an effort to build offensive rhythm in a way he hasn't achieved during the Patriots' snowy offensive days so far this postseason. Since the Patriots are underdogs, a trailing second-half game script and increase in underneath space is more likely for their offense than the Seahawks.'
Sam Darnold OVER 6.5 rushing yards (-106)
The more Darnold rolls out, the more likely he is to take a free access scramble for a few yards. Darnold also ran the ball far more during the second half of the season than he did in the first half. In fact, 25 of his 38 rush attempts (66%) have come in his past 10 games. Some of those rush attempts are kneels, but if we remove those, the disparity becomes even bigger, with 19 of his 25 rushes (76%) coming in the second half of the season. Darnold over 2.5 rushes is also an interesting bet at +107, as the Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites over the Patriots and, accordingly, the more likely team to kneel the football.
TreVeyon Henderson OVER 24.5 rushing + receiving yards (-113)
The explosive rookie vanished from the game plan against the Broncos, as his three touches for five yards were his lowest since an October contest against the Tennessee Titans. Henderson has some mental busts in pass protection, and I think the coaching staff was fearful of overexposing him to the blitz-happy Denver defense. But the Seahawks don't blitz nearly as much, and I'd wager Henderson gets a few designer touches -- as well as his standard menu of carries -- in an effort to find big plays without pushing the ball downfield. This is a generic bet on Henderson getting an increased role, but we can also get home on few touches because Henderson is just that fast.
Hunter Henry UNDER 39.5 receiving yards (-110)
I generally love Henry as a solid three-down tight end, but this isn't the game for him. Henry is much more productive against single-high defensive shells (2.34 yards per route run) relative to two-deep shells (1.30 yards per route run), as the Patriots love to use him as a seam or deep corner/crosser runner. Henry will see plenty of impressive rookie Nick Emmanwori in coverage, and though the Seahawks' defense gives up more tight end targets than the average defense, it's only marginally so.
George Holani OVER 11.5 receiving yards (-107)
Kenneth Walker III continued his excellent postseason carrying the football in the Seahawks' win over the Rams, and he has increased his damage as an early-down pass catcher on screens as well. But to keep him fresh in Zach Charbonnet's absence, the Seahawks often pulled him on late downs, sticking Holani in as their third-down back. Holani had 14 routes against the Rams to Walker's 15 and collected four targets for 27 yards in the game. Even though Holani is not a well-known name, an 11.5-yard line for a dedicated third-down back in what should be a close game is simply too low and should be bet accordingly.
AJ Barner to score a TD (+255)
I really like betting Barner to score a touchdown, as he is the designated tush push sneaker for the Seahawks' offense. On the season, Barner has 12 sneak carries; Darnold has five. It is worth noting that Darnold's sneak carries have been more frequent in the second half of the season, but on a third-and-goal from the 1-yard line, you have to feel better about the 6-foot-6, 251-pound Barner in that spot.
The Patriots had one of the worst goal-to-go defenses in football this season, but they have largely avoided red zone drives because of their excellent play between the 20s. The Seahawks' offense should give them a much stiffer challenge than they've faced all playoffs, so I'm interested in Seattle's team total touchdown overs as well. I expect the Seahawks' scoring drives to end in seven points, not three.
Seth Walder's defensive prop bets
Elijah Ponder OVER 0.25 sacks (+483)
More than anything else, this bet hinges on Harold Landry III's injury status and playing time. Landry has been dealing with a knee injury that has reduced his workload or caused him to miss every game since Week 16, including the AFC Championship Game. Ponder has received major playing time.
An undrafted rookie free agent, Ponder has 4.0 sacks this season and a 10.9% pass rush win rate at edge (a bit below average for a starter), but at these odds he hardly needs to be amazing. And similarly, given the major plus-money here, this bet does not require Landry being inactive to make it worthwhile. It's a good bet whether Landry is out or playing roughly half his normal workload, as has been the case for more than a month. And I'm quite willing to take that chance.
Milton Williams UNDER 0.25 sacks (-194)
Williams is coming off a heck of a season in which he recorded a 13% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, which would have ranked sixth if he qualified. But the "at defensive tackle" part is crucial for sack forecasting here because interior rushers simply sack the quarterback less frequently. Williams is indicative of this, logging 5.5 sacks in 15 games despite having such a great season.
And this game is less likely to produce a Williams sack than most because the Patriots are underdogs. So much of sack production is driven by circumstance, and a huge variable is which team is losing. The losing team will be forced into clearer passing situations, which allows defensive players to forget about run responsibilities and simply get after the quarterback. But as an underdog, that is simply less likely in the Super Bowl than most Patriots games this season. My model prices this Williams under at -302.
Coby Bryant to record 1+ interception (+950)
This is a new model I worked up just for the Super Bowl because who doesn't want another long shot to root for? And I'm glad I did, because it found one interception player prop it loves: Bryant to record a pick. It sees three things that Bryant has going for him to record a pick in this game:
1. The Seahawks are favored. That means more expected pass attempts for Maye and possibly more desperate pass attempts.
2. Bryant has four interceptions this season. As random as interceptions can be, I've found there is signal there, so that boosts Bryant's pick probability in the Super Bowl.
3. Bryant plays safety almost exclusively. Interceptions occur most often when a player is playing safety, but some safeties spend their time playing elsewhere on the field. Not Bryant. He plays almost every snap, and 94% of those snaps are actually as a safety, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
The result? My model puts the fair odds on a Bryant pick at +535. If it's right, then we've got ourselves a value.
Devon Witherspoon UNDER 6.5 tackles + assists (-137)
A 6.5 combined tackle line for a corner is very high. And I get it because Witherspoon has really high tackle rates for his position. He has recorded a tackle or assist on 10.6% of his defensive snaps, fifth highest among all outside corners with at least 300 snaps this season.
But my model is well aware of that fact, and it still thinks the under is the play. Why? The power of the base rate. As many tackles as Witherspoon has had over his 14 games this season, we have far, far more data points of corners across the league. And only 12% of games played by outside cornerback starters resulted in them recording seven tackles or more.
Byron Murphy II UNDER 0.25 sacks (-216)
His 7.0 sacks this season are impressive for a defensive tackle, though his advanced pass-rushing metrics aren't quite as favorable, with a 9.2% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (17th best among qualifiers) and 6.7% pressure rate (ninth best).
I'll confess this bet scares me a bit because Maye's biggest weakness all season has been taking sacks; his 8.8% sack rate is fifth worst among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks. But my model makes this price -309, and I'm always inclined to trust the numbers, especially in what is by far my most successful category.