What has happened to our stars?
OK, OK, Aaron Judge -- fantasy baseball's No. 2 overall pick on average, and two-time defending American League Most Valuable Player -- has been fine. But take a gander at the remainder of the preseason's biggest projected superstars, and you might find yourself disappointed in the returns.
Nine of the top 20 picks on average in ESPN leagues find themselves on pace to score at least 100 fewer fantasy points than initially projected, and another five are at least 50 points off pace. Even the great Shohei Ohtani hasn't hit nearly as well as he did during his three consecutive National League MVP campaigns of 2023-25, registering his worst OPS since the COVID-shortened 2020. But hey, at least Ohtani is excelling on the pitching side of things, making a legitimate case for Cy Young Award consideration in his first full season back following elbow surgery.
It's not only the individuals, either. More teams than usual have greatly deviated from their preseason expectations.
Three of the eight teams with 16-1 odds or better to win the World Series back on Opening Day find themselves ranked among the 10 worst teams in terms of winning percentage (New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays), and another two have sub-.500 records (Philadelphia Phillies; Seattle Mariners). Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays (80-1 on Opening Day) entered play on Tuesday with the second-best record in baseball, improving their championship odds to 20-1.
Yes, it has been a topsy-turvy baseball season and, while one can opine in response that "doesn't it seem like every season goes topsy-turvy," this year has a decidedly different flavor of unexpected.
So what can fantasy managers possibly do about this unpredictability?
Recent history offers some blind optimism as, in the past three seasons (2023-25), 18 out of the 60 top-20 overall fantasy baseball picks found themselves more than 100 points below their seasonal projections and four of those rebounded to finish within 43 points of said projection come year's end. Still, a 4-in-18, or 22% recovery rate amongst that group, doesn't offer a whole lot of encouragement for managers dealing with a slow-starting early pick.
As is often the case with fantasy baseball analysis, a case-by-case examination is the only way to steer successfully through. With that in mind, let's break down these 14 underperformers. (Fantasy point paces are through Monday's games.)
More than 100 fantasy points below projection
1. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (105 under)
Perhaps the most head-scratching underperformer of them all, Ohtani has been everything we could have imagined as a pitcher, but nearly as ordinary a hitter as we've seen in his nine seasons in the States. But here's the crazy part: He's still on pace for 806 fantasy points, which is 158 more than the next-closest player. It's a reminder of how extraordinary a performer he is in ESPN standard leagues.
Sure, Ohtani hasn't been getting as many DH starts on days he has pitched, but maybe that's a good thing? It makes our lineup decisions easy and, besides, he hasn't hit quite as well thus far on the day of or day after he has pitched, averaging 0.60 fantasy points per game in those compared to 2.69 the rest of the time. This is still the A-number-one player to roster in ESPN leagues, and even modest improvement restores his cheat-code status.
3. Juan Soto, OF, Mets (306 under)
It's not only the calf strain contributing to his underperformance, considering 74 hitters have scored more fantasy points than him since his April 22 return to action. That said, Francisco Lindor's absence has contributed to a lackluster Mets offense, which has affected Soto's numbers, and Soto himself also got off to a sluggish start to last year, batting .224/.352/.393 through his first 55 games. He probably has the best chance to close the gap between his results and preseason projection of anyone on the list.
6. Tarik Skubal, SP, Detroit Tigers (134 under)
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Surgery to remove a bone chip from his elbow is almost entirely responsible, as he ranked seventh among pitchers in fantasy points at the time he got hurt. Here's hoping the Tigers don't rush him back out of sheer standings panic, but there's an excellent chance he'll vie for the most points among pitchers from July 1 forward (an estimate on his return date).
8. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves (179 under)
Injuries have been a persistent problem for the now-28-year-old, who has had multiple ACL reconstructions and now made eight career trips to the IL. He's an excellent player, albeit slightly better for rotisserie than points-based play, and one whose career-ending stat sheet is going to look awfully unusual -- huge, great years surrounded by shortened ones. Acuna isn't a player to just give away, certainly not with perhaps only a week or so remaining on his IL stint. But if he rattles off a hot streak shortly thereafter, would I trade him? You bet I would.
9. Garrett Crochet, SP, Red Sox (353 under)
He is sidelined due to a shoulder injury. As he is coming off a 2025 that saw him increase his innings pitched total by 50-plus for the second straight year (and 65-plus if you include his wild-card round start), it heightens concerns about his ability to smoothly rebound. Unfortunately, there's not much to do here other than cross your fingers.
11. Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners (264 under)
The leading candidate for fantasy bust of the year, he is reflecting career worsts (among full seasons) in batting average (.157), strikeout rate (31.4%) and isolated power (.163). Raleigh's chase rate is up over 5%, and he's struggling mightily against elite velocity, with a career-worst 40% whiff rate against 95-plus mph pitches. A richer catching talent pool also diminishes the impact of his contributions. Raleigh's case presents a host of warning signs, and yet, I see a modest rebound in his future. One reason: Other than last year, he has typically performed better over the season's final four months (.257 ISO) than in its first two (.241).
12. Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, San Diego Padres (196 under)
He was the headliner of last week's column, and since then he has rocketed another four batted balls of 100-plus mph ... and somehow has still not put one over the fence. I stand firm on my "trade for him NOW" stance.
14. Ketel Marte, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks (135 under)
Ditto, although Marte's injury history provided last week's only note of caution. The Diamondbacks are making a trip to Colorado's Coors Field this weekend, by the way.
19. Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles (114 under)
He is chasing bad pitches substantially more often, and his 35% chase rate is easily a career worst, but the bigger complaint with Henderson is his continued struggles against left-handed pitching which eventually could lead to lost starts against southpaws. He's young enough (he turns 25 on June 29) to straighten things out, and I'd lean sharply in that direction if you've got a trade opportunity -- but his ceiling might now be shy of the first round.
Between 50-99 fantasy points below projection
7. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians (71 under)
He has now been on pace to finish 60 or more fantasy points beneath his season-long projection in three of the past five seasons, yet he finished among the top 11 in scoring in each of 2023-25. Enough said.
10. Kyle Tucker, OF, Dodgers (77 under)
Though his fantasy production is down, almost all of his underlying metrics are in line with the past couple of seasons, except for his Barrel rate (6.9%, down roughly 4% compared to his career number). Tucker could still be adapting to his new surroundings, however, and the healthy return of Mookie Betts should only help deepen the Dodgers lineup and lead to bigger numbers for Tucker and his teammates.
15. Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks (51 under)
His launch angle has dipped to 2023-24 norms, but he's otherwise reflecting similar underlying metrics to his career rates. Carroll's numbers hardly look like those of a significant disappointment, and he should close that points gap soon.
18. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays (78 under)
He's fourth in the majors in expected batting average (.312), so it's difficult to take issue with his early returns. Besides, injuries have hit the Blue Jays lineup hard over the first month-plus, which could have a lot to do with Guerrero's numbers.
20. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners (65 under)
A perennial slow starter, J-Rod has already hit .350/.381/.775 with five home runs in his 10 May games. The opportunity might have already passed, but consider this our last-last call to make a trade for him.