In Sunday's late kickoff, the Los Angeles Rams travel to Seattle for their third tilt of the season with the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.
Matt Bowen breaks down the matchup, looking at both sides of the ball, and offers his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder share their best bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
When the Rams have the ball
Bowen: Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for a total of five touchdowns in the two games versus Seattle this season, utilizing play-action throws and boot concepts that led to explosive gains. That's a major part of Sean McVay's offense, as is creating catch-and-run targets for Puka Nacua and isolation throws to Davante Adams. Plus, with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, McVay has two running backs who can handle volume between the tackles while using their short-area speed and contact balance to push through the second level.
Edge: Rams
Best bet: Kyren Williams OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-113). Williams had at least 70 yards rushing in both matchups versus Seattle this season, and he logged 23 carries in the Week 16 Thursday night game. A volume grinder, Williams has the traits -- and the scheme -- to hit the over on Sunday.
When the Seahawks have the ball
Bowen: We know how the Seahawks' offense operates under coordinator Klint Kubiak, as the run and pass game mirror each other. This creates defined throws and vertical shot plays for quarterback Sam Darnold, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba uses his high-level route running to uncover at all three levels of the field. And with Zach Charbonnet down for the rest of the season with a knee injury, Kenneth Walker III is now in line to see heavy volume on Kubiak's zone-run scheme versus the Rams' defensive front, one of the best in the league.
Edge: Seahawks
Best bet: Kenneth Walker III OVER 23.5 receiving yards (-110). With the absence of Charbonnet, Walker will see more usage in the pass game, too. Walker has at least 29 yards receiving and three or more receptions in three of his past four games. Checkdowns, screens, throws to the flat versus the Rams' zone coverages. Take the over.
Staff picks, best bets and props
Total points OVER 46.5 (-115)
Maldonado: The Rams play fast and efficient, ranking near the top in yards per play and offensive success rate, which forces opponents to respond. Seattle's offense spikes when trailing, and we've already seen that script with fourth-quarter surges. Both quarterbacks are meaningfully better off play-action, and both coaching staffs are willing to stay aggressive in pressure spots. Add in special teams upside and red zone defensive efficiency that sits closer to average than elite, and this game looks like an over play.
Matthew Stafford UNDER 22.5 completions (-104)
Loza: Stafford completed 20 passes in an overtime game against the Bears and 24 in a close game at the Panthers the prior week. He's dealing with a hurt finger and a sizable amount of exerted energy heading into this game. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are rested and playing at home. Seattle's defense held opposing QBs to an average of 22 passing completions during the regular season.
Stafford OVER 35.5 passing attempts (-119)
Moody: Stafford has surpassed this line in six consecutive games, including his most recent outing against the Seahawks. Seattle's defense has been formidable all season, but it's hard not to see Sean McVay lean heavily on his veteran quarterback and one of the league's top wide receiver duos in Nacua and Adams.
Terrance Ferguson 15+ receiving yards (-113)
Solak: Ferguson had a season-high five targets against the Bears last weekend, and most of his targets are big throws down the field -- he also set a new season high in unrealized air yards with 62. This creates a smash spot for us at the low number of 15 yards. He can get there on a low volume of targets with just one catch, as his catches are often for big gains, and he can hit some of the alts if he reels in a few big ones. I'll be laddering him up to 40+ yards.
Devon Witherspoon UNDER 5.5 tackles + assists (+115)
Walder: This is a high tackle line for a cornerback with plus-money to the under, but it's easy to see why. Witherspoon has some of the highest tackle rates in the league for a corner. He has recorded a tackle on 11% of opponent pass plays and 10% of opponent run plays, which ranks seventh- and fifth-highest, respectively, among outside corners with at least 300 coverage snaps. My model, which prices the under here at -161, is essentially betting that while Witherspoon's history is noteworthy and useful for forecasting his future performance. This line deviates too much from the base rates for the position to ignore. I'm inclined to buy that reasoning.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Loza's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($16,500) cleared 95 receiving yards in both of his regular-season meetings with the Rams. He also found the end zone last week versus the 49ers despite being barely utilized (relatively speaking). The Rams' corners are susceptible to big plays, which is what Smith-Njigba does best.
Also in my lineup: Seahawks D/ST ($4,600). The Seahawks' defense allowed the lowest yards per attempt over the regular season. Mike Macdonald's crew, admittedly, faltered versus the Rams in Week 16, but I don't see this unit making the same mistake twice in a row. Not with so much on the line and working in its favor.
Maldonado's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Puka Nacua ($18,000) is the Rams' volume engine and their best answer against the Seahawks' coverage looks. If Stafford is throwing 40-plus times, Nacua's target share plus YAC gives him the highest outcome.
Also in my lineup: Kenneth Walker III ($9,600) is the game-flow hedge. Seattle leans on him early and often, and his efficiency keeps drives alive even if the pass game stalls. He brings touchdown equity, receiving involvement and late-game volume if Seattle is protecting a lead or trading scores.
Solak's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Walker ($14,400). An enormous, enormous opportunity awaits Walker with Zach Charbonnet now shelved for the season. Walker will be used heavily in the passing game, as he often is in the Seahawks' biggest games, and he'll take the lion's share of the carries as Seattle endeavors to shorten this game and play the field position battle, protecting Sam Darnold from too many picks. With huge names like Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba also available in this slate, I love Walker as a captain.
Also in my lineup: AJ Barner ($4,800). If Walker isn't getting the goal-line rushing touchdown in Seattle, it's likely that Barner is, as the tight end is also the designated sneaker in Seattle's offense. Accordingly, I love carrying Barner as a flex, especially in lineups in which I cannot fit Darnold, but Barner also was productive as a receiver (4 catches, 49 yards and a TD) against the Rams in the past outing.
Walder's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Kyren Williams ($15,000). I think this will be a close game, but the game outcome that I think will be undervalued is a Rams blowout. The reason I feel this is because of Darnold's poor play from Week 11 (the first time he faced the Rams this year) on, a span in which he ranked 27th in QBR. If the Rams were to win in a blowout, what would that look like? Probably a lot of volume for Williams.
Also in my lineup: Rams D/ST ($3,600). This is a correlated play to my captain playing off the Rams-in-a-blowout script. If Darnold were to throw a pick-six -- and I think he's plenty susceptible to do so -- that would likely increase the workload for Williams.