September is both thrilling and misleading. The proverbial September Heisman winner almost never wins the actual Heisman, and in the past 21 seasons the team ranked No. 1 in Week 5 went on to win the national title only three times.
There are plenty of shake-ups to come, in other words, and they might start this weekend. Week 5 isn't as loaded with obvious headliners as Week 4 was, but eight of the top 12 teams in the AP poll are playing on the road, and three are favorites of less than a touchdown. Per SP+ projections, there's twice as good a chance of three favorites losing (23.9%) as there is of all eight winning (11.9%).
The aesthetics are pretty pleasing throughout the weekend: We get a matchup of the game's two most exciting young quarterbacks, and Iowa-Ohio State gives us a chance to reminisce about a huge 2017 upset. We also get a great Friday night slate, desperate home games for USC and Texas A&M and maybe the biggest UMass home game ever.
We're going to take down some favorites, and we're going to have some fun. Here's everything you need to follow in Week 5.
Note: All times are Eastern.
Keelon vs. Kamario! Yes!
No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (noon, ABC)
Mississippi State and Alabama have met as ranked foes 14 times, and the Crimson Tide are 14-0. MSU's Kamario Taylor has created magic this season -- and won the September Heisman -- but is he ready to end an all-time losing streak? And can he outduel maybe the second-most exciting young QB in the country in Keelon Russell?
Based on preseason SP+ projections, Mississippi State was looking at an average of 2.0 wins through four games; instead, the Bulldogs are 4-0. Only the glorious UMass Minutemen overachieved more in September.
Alabama also handled September with aplomb -- they're almost a full win ahead of schedule.
Bama's offense looked like the finished article last Saturday, gaining 489 yards at 8.6 yards per play in a 49-18 win over South Carolina. Russell was 13-for-15 for 234 yards and four touchdowns in the first half alone, and five players caught at least one pass of 20-plus yards. The Crimson Tide's run game has improved, and the passing game is fantastic. Meanwhile, Mississippi State ranks just 67th in yards allowed per dropback and gave up more than 400 total yards to both South Carolina and Missouri.
Taylor and the Bulldogs have been incredibly prolific, and they've done it despite lulls, spotting South Carolina a 16-0 lead over the first 20 minutes and getting outscored 24-3 in the middle two quarters against Missouri. Despite dialing in for only 30-45 minutes per week, MSU is averaging 43 points and 533 yards per game.
On paper, Alabama's defense is the best the Bulldogs have faced, but the Tide have sprung a few more leaks than expected. The run defense is excellent -- though it'll have its hands full with yards-after-contact machine Fluff Bothwell -- but the pass defense is suspect. The Tide D ranks just 81st in yards per dropback, and 22.7% of opponents' completions have gained 20-plus yards (125th). Rain could make this game more run-based, but Taylor is still incredibly dangerous.
This is a rough run of games for both teams. MSU is in the second of a five-week run of SP+ top-30 opponents; three of the next four are top-10. For Bama, four of the next five opponents rank 18th or better. Both have overachieved thus far, but the challenges have only begun.
Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 5.4 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.0
Iowa goes for the double
No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
In 1962, Jerry Burns' Iowa team went just 4-5, but the last two of those wins came in Iowa City by matching 28-14 scores -- first against Ohio State, then against Michigan. It's the only time the Hawkeyes beat both Big Ten heavyweights in the same season, but now they have a chance to do it in a two-week span.
This is somehow the Buckeyes' first visit to Kinnick Stadium since their incredible 55-24 loss in 2017. In the last 40 years, only the Buckeyes' famous 1998 loss to Nick Saban and Michigan State came as a heavier favorite.
Iowa was extremely fortunate to beat Michigan last week. Generally, getting outgained by 1.5 yards per play and giving up twice as many red zone trips as you create is a pretty ineffective method for winning a game, but red zone magic on both ends, and an improbable last drive, got the job done. The recipe for another Hawkeye win might take shape in similar fashion: Hold Ohio State to field goals, stay within reach as long as possible and hope the Buckeyes' memories of recent close losses come into play late.
Jeremiah Smith & Co. will probably just be too damn good for Iowa. The Hawkeyes' defense will make some stops because it's excellent, but their offense ranks 73rd in points per drive thanks to general inefficiency and a lack of big pass plays. Ohio State's defense isn't as impenetrable as last year's, but the Buckeyes are 15th in points allowed per possession despite having played two top-25 offenses (Texas and Illinois). The run defense is merely solid, and Iowa running back Kamari Moulton could enjoy a decent game, but major passing success for Iowa's Hank Brown is likely out of reach.
Strangely, this is a bigger game for the Buckeyes than the Hawkeyes. The Buckeyes have already spent a mulligan with the loss to Texas, and they still face trips to Indiana and USC and a home game against Oregon. They can't really afford to drop this one, but Iowa, somehow with only one SP+ top-25 opponent left after this, is in great position for a run at 10-2.
Current line: OSU -14.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 11.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 13.5
Which other top-15 road teams might be in trouble?
Six other top teams also face road trips of varying degrees of trickiness. Who is in the most danger of going down?
No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Almost no offense is perfect, and a bunch of well-paid defensive coordinators will find ways to frustrate pretty much everyone at some point. But no one's managed to frustrate Florida just yet.
The Gators are first in points per possession, grinding away with Jadan Baugh and a great run game, drawing up wide-open passes for Aaron Philo and playing almost perfectly in the red zone. But Missouri held down Kamario Taylor and MSU for a couple of quarters and forces three-and-outs and turnover opportunities well. Can the Tigers become the first team to ding an imperious attack?
Mizzou has been good in the field position and turnover departments, but when the Tigers needed one more score late against MSU, Austin Simmons & Co. couldn't get it done. They still don't have a great run game, and while Simmons has been pretty good on passing downs, he has faced a few too many. Florida has allowed at least 21 points against all three FBS opponents it has faced and ranks just 78th in success rate* allowed. The Gators pounce on impatient mistakes, but what happens if they need to force the issue?
(Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Current line: Florida -5.5 | SP+ projection: Florida by 2.3 | FPI projection: Florida by 7.3
No. 10 BYU at TCU (7 p.m., ESPN)
Over Sonny Dykes' first four years at TCU, the Horned Frogs won three games while allowing at least 36 points. The Horned Frogs can generally hang in a track meet, but in their first two 2026 games against power-conference opponents, they allowed 36 total points ... and went 0-2. They allowed 17 tackles for loss, committed five turnovers and managed two touchdowns in eight red zone trips. Offensive mistakes ruined two strong defensive performances.
BYU's offense ranks first nationally in success rate. Running back LJ Martin runs mean as hell, and freshman receiver Legend Glasker is a scary deep threat. More importantly, the Cougars' defense is creating two takeaways per game and preventing big plays and easy scores. TCU still has potential, but the Frogs have so much to clean up.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 5.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 7.4
No. 12 Texas Tech at Colorado (7:30 p.m., Fox)
Colorado has pulled off only half a turnaround. The Buffaloes' defense has become far more aggressive and disruptive and they can challenge a Tech offense that boasts strong efficiency numbers (15th in success rate) but doesn't make loads of big plays, turns the ball over too much and is dealing with O-line injuries.
Only one half of the matchup is intriguing, however -- there's little reason to think the Buffaloes will actually score. Tech's defense isn't as strong as last year's, but Colorado ranks 115th in points per drive, getting only random bursts from the run game and nothing but nibbles through the air. It appears Utah transfer Isaac Wilson will start over blue-chip youngster Julian Lewis, but he didn't do much against Baylor last week. It will take serious Boulder magic for this to become interesting.
Current line: Tech -12.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Tech by 21.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 16.1
No. 4 Miami at Clemson (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Since Clemson's Week 1 humiliation against LSU, the Tigers' defense has allowed just 0.8 points per drive (seventh nationally) and 4.2 yards per dropback (sixth). That has allowed them to win three straight despite a moribund offense.
Miami is obliterating opposing run games, and Clemson QB Tait Reynolds will likely see far too many passing downs. But this could still be a solid test for a Hurricanes offense that hasn't faced a top-60 defense (per SP+). Miami ranks first in yards per play (8.5), second in points per drive (4.3) and third in success rate (58.0%), and Darian Mensah has completed a preposterous 89% of his passes. But Clemson should defend soundly enough -- especially with rainy conditions -- to give the Canes a dose of adversity.
Current line: Miami -16.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 18.3 | FPI projection: Miami by 16.5
No. 3 Notre Dame at North Carolina (noon, ESPN)
UNC has had a disjointed start to the season with a Week 0 game and two bye weeks close together. Now come nine straight games starting with a visit from Notre Dame. The Tar Heels have the best pass rush CJ Carr has faced, and if the Fighting Irish aren't running the ball particularly well and Carr is facing third-and-longs, that might become an issue.
That's probably the only path UNC has to an upset, though. Notre Dame has lots of paths to victory. The Heels are 90th in points per drive and haven't faced a defense this good, and the Irish O-line has barely let Carr get touched. The Notre Dame offense has potentially discovered a new gear with Micah Gilbert reeling in deep balls, and the run game is efficient enough even if it lacks explosiveness.
Current line: ND -21 (down from -22.5) | SP+ projection: ND by 22.5 | FPI projection: ND by 20.0
No. 6 Indiana at Rutgers (8 p.m., BTN)
Indiana is working with the biggest spread here, but I like this test because the Hoosiers have suffered more defensive glitches than expected, especially in the secondary, and Rutgers' offense has actually come to life. Quarterback Dylan Lonergan is looking far stronger since returning to the lineup, and if IU's attention span continues to wobble at times, the Scarlet Knights could keep this close for a bit.
IU should eventually score far too much, but Rutgers will tell us if the Hoosiers' defensive glitches are a true concern.
Current line: Indiana -23.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 26.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 28.5
A sneaky-big Friday night
Northwestern opens its new/old stadium, and Virginia Tech plays "Enter Sandman" for a battle of unbeatens. Combine that with Liberty-Delaware and "Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives," and that's a delightful Friday night quad box!
Pitt at Virginia Tech (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
Virginia Tech and Pitt hadn't both started 4-0 since 2000, when Michael Vick was behind center for the Hokies and the Panthers' Antonio Bryant was posting otherworldly receiving numbers. Pitt has grown pretty used to fast starts -- 7-0 in 2024, 7-2 in 2025 -- but James Franklin has Tech playing at its highest level in a while. The Hokies weren't amazing in road wins over Maryland and Boston College (the latter in a rainy Nor'easter), but running back Jeffrey Overton Jr. is posting strong numbers despite a banged-up O-line, Ethan Grunkemeyer is completing 74% of his passes, and the defense leads the nation in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and sack rate. They attack and attack.
That's usually Pitt's thing. The Panthers are second in stuff rate, and though the pass rush isn't elite, they're still 19th in third-down conversion rate and third in points allowed per drive. Grunkemeyer and Pitt's Mason Heintschel will likely be in quite a few third-and-longs. Whoever makes more plays -- or better avoids disaster -- will move to 5-0.
Current line: VT -3 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: VT by 0.1 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.7
Penn State at Northwestern (8 p.m., Fox)
RIP to Northwestern's temporary football home by the lake -- Ryan Field reopens after an $800 million renovation, and the Wildcats will welcome a Penn State team that is suddenly reeling after last week's late breakdowns against Wisconsin.
Northwestern has overachieved against projections in each of its first three games and is one spot ahead of Wisconsin in SP+. That might be scary for Penn State, considering that the Badgers outgained the Nittany Lions by 1.9 yards per play and were trailing late only because of turnovers. But the PSU defense still seems pretty top-notch -- eighth in points per drive, third in yards allowed per dropback -- and the Nittany Lions are still favored. We'll need to see far more from Rocco Becht and the offense, though: They averaged a dismal 3.6 yards per play last week.
Current line: PSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 7.1 | FPI projection: PSU by 2.0
Group of 6 games of the week
Per SP+, there are six primary contenders for the Group of 6's automatic CFP slot: unbeaten James Madison, North Dakota State and South Florida and one-loss New Mexico, Boise State and Memphis. The next team in the pecking order after that group? UNBEATEN UMASS!! The Minutemen are playing in their biggest home game since joining the FBS, and South Florida hosts a competitive and frustrated Temple.
Eastern Michigan at UMass (3:30 p.m., ESPN+)
Joe Harasymiak's UMass Minutemen are 4-0 for the first time since 2007, and McGuirk Stadium will likely be sold out Saturday afternoon. Hell yes. Quarterback Pop Watson III is the Minutemen's best true playmaker in ages, and the defense has been solid against the pass and great against the run.
EMU has a veteran quarterback in Noah Kim and an offensive line that doesn't commit many penalties or allow many negative plays. But the Eagles have beaten only Lindenwood and Sacramento State -- by 18 fewer points at home than UMass did on the road -- and it would be a surprise if UMass didn't make it to 5-0.
Current line: UMass -6.5 (up from -4) | SP+ projection: UMass by 14.3 | FPI projection: UMass by 13.4
Temple at South Florida (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
USF is hard to figure out. The offense stays on schedule and manages turnovers well but has scored fewer than 20 points twice, including against a terrible Bowling Green defense. The Bulls' defense, meanwhile, barely stands out statistically but has allowed 17 or fewer points three times. The Bulls are projected favorites in every remaining game, but with such a low-scoring offense, they're vulnerable.
Temple has lost its past two games by a total of four points, and thanks to backs Keveun Mason and Samuel Brown and quarterback Ajani Sheppard, the Owls have one of the G6's more explosive run games. Their defense has disappointed, but if they can keep USF at 24 or fewer points, an upset is on the table.
Current line: USF -6.5 | SP+ projection: USF by 12.5 | FPI projection: USF by 6.7
Week 5 chaos superfecta
We're once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We're rolling this year -- we've taken down at least one favorite in three of four weeks, and last week, we took down two for the second time. Let's keep it going!
According to SP+, there's only a 33% chance that Houston (-10.5 vs. UCF), Wisconsin (-10 vs. Michigan State), Illinois (-10 vs. Purdue) and North Dakota State (-20.5 vs. Wyoming) all win this weekend. I like our chances!
Week 5 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Liberty at Delaware (7 p.m., CBSSN). Liberty is the Conference USA favorite after a couple of great performances, but Delaware is 7-1 at home since joining the FBS, and quarterback Nick Minicucci is a big-play hunter who could test an excellent Liberty pass defense. But can a decent Blue Hens run defense slow the relentless rushing duo of Kam Davis and Peyton Jones?
Current line: Liberty -7.5 | SP+ projection: Liberty by 10.8 | FPI projection: Liberty by 5.4
Early Saturday
Michigan at Minnesota (noon, Fox). Michigan's September began and ended with wild games that were decided with no time on the clock. Michigan's offense moved the ball well in the loss to Iowa -- its 6.3 yards per play were the most the Hawkeyes have allowed in the past 10 games -- but suffered red zone issues and bad breaks. An excellent Wolverines defense should keep Minnesota at 21 or fewer points, but the Golden Gophers could stick around if they hold Michigan to field goals.
Current line: Michigan -5.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 5.3 | FPI projection: Michigan by 9.6
Michigan State at Wisconsin (12:30 p.m., BTN). After its first top-15 road win since 2019, Wisconsin returns home to welcome a Michigan State team that lost its first two power-conference games by 35 combined points. RB Cam Edwards is out for the season, and hopes for an upset will hinge on MSU's defense forcing turnovers (the Badgers are pretty generous) and receiver Rodney Bullard Jr. reeling in some big gains.
Current line: UW -10 | SP+ projection: UW by 9.1 | FPI projection: UW by 6.1
UCF at No. 20 Houston (noon, ESPN2). UCF is five points from an unbeaten record and has only once allowed more than 13 points this season. But Conner Weigman and the Houston offense rank third in points per drive and can grind teams down with either the run or pass. UCF has gotten by with minimal passing, thanks in part to great work from RB Duke Watson, but QB Keyone Jenkins will probably have to make some big throws to score an upset.
Current line: Houston -11.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 5.9 | FPI projection: Houston by 8.1
Vanderbilt at No. 2 Georgia (12:45 p.m., SECN). Vanderbilt has underachieved against SP+ projections in every game and is a huge projected underdog here. The Commodores don't seem to have the offense, and freshman quarterback Jared Curtis is listed as questionable. Still, they have a good pass rush and efficient pass defense, so they'll give us a further idea of Gunner Stockton and the Georgia passing game's newfound upside.
Current line: UGA -25.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 25.2 | FPI projection: UGA by 26.2
Navy at Air Force (noon, CBS). The Commander-in-Chief's Trophy series begins! Devastating losses to FAU and UAB have wounded Navy's American Conference title hopes, and now the Midshipmen head to Colorado Springs, where they've lost five of six. Navy's Jackson Gutierrez has run a solid option attack in the injured Braxton Woodson's absence, just as Liam Szarka has for Air Force, but the game will be decided by which struggling defense shines.
Current line: Air Force -3.5 (up from -1.5) | SP+ projection: Air Force -2.8 | FPI projection: Air Force by 5.3
Saturday afternoon
Virginia at Florida State (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). It's make-or-break time for Mike Norvell at FSU: Five of the Seminoles' last eight games this season are projected within one score, and they might need to win them all for Norvell to keep his job. Virginia has been excellent in three games but couldn't stop West Virginia's run game in a surprising loss. That could be good news for FSU's Ousmane Kromah, but the Seminoles' struggling defense will still need to slow down a relatively mistake-free UVA offense.
Current line: UVA -2.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 6.2 | FPI projection: UVA by 2.9
Auburn at No. 17 Tennessee (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Auburn has faced one top-40 offense (per SP+) and gave up 44 points. Six of the next eight offenses the Tigers face rank 22nd or better. Against Texas last week, all of Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon's bad habits -- namely, his one-read-and-go scrambling -- were laid bare, and now, Vols guard Wendell Moe Jr. is out for the season. Can Auburn take advantage? And can Auburn score on an increasingly impressive Vols defense?
Current line: UT -7 | SP+ projection: UT by 8.8 | FPI projection: UT by 7.6
Louisville at NC State (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Louisville has allowed 30-plus points to all three of its power-conference opponents. The Cardinals create almost no disruption and lost to Wake Forest last week when the offense began settling for field goals. Now, quarterback Lincoln Kienholz is listed as questionable. Uh, oh. NC State's offense has rounded into form, but the Wolfpack defense might be even less disruptive than Louisville's.
Current line: Louisville -3.5 (down from -6) | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.9 | FPI projection: Louisville by 6.1
No. 24 Kentucky at South Carolina (4:15 p.m., SECN). In the past three halves, South Carolina has been outscored 76-29. Dylan Stewart is suspended, and the defense is getting rocked. If this game comes down to confidence, Kentucky has all of it. The Wildcats are ranked for the first time in three years, and backs CJ Baxter and Jason Patterson are running well. The defense is still vulnerable, though, if the Gamecocks are up for a track meet (and rainy conditions allow for one).
Current line: Gamecocks -3 | SP+ projection: Gamecocks by 2.0 | FPI projection: Gamecocks by 2.7
Maryland at Nebraska (4 p.m., FS1). Lou Holtz used to say you coach a different team every week, but Mike Locksley has to hope his team is very different from last week's: Maryland was a 1.5-point home underdog against UCLA and lost by 51. The 2-2 Terrapins are projected favorites in just two remaining games. It could get bad if they don't immediately rebound, and Nebraska has rolled to four straight comfortable wins.
Current line: Huskers -14.5 | SP+ projection: Huskers by 15.6 | FPI projection: Huskers by 21.7
Wyoming at North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., The CW). The Craig Bohl Bowl! NDSU moved to FBS in part because bored Bison fans wanted bigger home games, and FBS lifer Wyoming might be the biggest program to visit the Fargodome. The Cowboys played their best game of the season last week, but they really struggle to pass and stop the run. Can physicality and FBS aura help them pull an upset?
Current line: NDSU -17.5 (down from -20.5) | SP+ projection: NDSU by 23.0 | FPI projection: NDSU by 20.4
Saturday evening
Washington at No. 18 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC). These two have combined to underachieve against SP+ projections in eight of nine games. Jayden Maiava and the USC passing game are still awesome, and Washington ranks 55th in yards allowed per dropback despite not having played a top-60 offense (per SP+). Can Washington's banged-up offense score enough against USC's flawed-as-ever defense?
Current line: USC -9.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 8.2 | FPI projection: USC by 14.0
Arkansas at Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN2). Arkansas is coming off its best performance of 2026, a blowout of Tulsa. I wrote in last week's preview that WR Chris Marshall needed to come up big, and he went for 195 yards and a TD. He might do it again against an A&M defense that is constantly giving up chunk plays, but Arkansas' defense might be shaky enough for A&M's struggling Marcel Reed to find a rhythm. The Aggies have far more advantages here.
Current line: A&M -14 | SP+ projection: A&M by 11.7 | FPI projection: A&M by 16.0
Utah State at No. 22 Boise State (7:30 p.m., CBSSN). Wins over Memphis and Western Michigan have given BSU a solid claim to Best in the G6 status, but the Broncos don't have much margin for error with James Madison and NDSU, among others, unbeaten. Utah State's defense is improving quickly, especially in big-play prevention, but the Aggies will have to make lots of stops to buy time for an ineffective offense.
Current line: BSU -20.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 19.5 | FPI projection: BSU by 21.2
Late Saturday
Cincinnati at Arizona (11 p.m., Fox). The portal gives and takes. Cincinnati lost QB Brendan Sorsby, but transfers have transformed the backfield: Quarterback JC French IV and backs Gi'Bran Payne and Cole Tabb have crafted a great run game and efficient passing game. Arizona has the best run defense the Bearcats have seen, though, and the Wildcats are making plenty of big plays with Noah Fifita throwing to Tre Spivey. Cincy is rising, but Arizona has a better track record.
Current line: Arizona -6.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.1
Baylor at Arizona State (10:30 p.m., ESPN). After a week off following a win over Kansas in London, a refreshed ASU hosts a Baylor team that has finally figured out its defense but has misplaced its passing game. Coordinator Joe Klanderman's Bears are 10th in points allowed per drive and could frustrate an explosive but inconsistent ASU offense, but quarterback DJ Lagway was iffy in his return from injury, and the Sun Devils' pass defense is stellar.
Current line: ASU -4 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 2.7 | FPI projection: Baylor by 0.8
Smaller-school showcase
Let's once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are four games you should track.
FCS: No. 1 Montana State at Idaho (Friday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN). Friday night at the Kibbie Dome! One of the Big Sky's ESPN showcase games arrives at an odd time -- Idaho is 0-4 with three one-score losses, and Montana State has looked spotty for two straight games after a big FBS win over Nevada. MSU's offense is suffering too many turnovers, but though Idaho can move the ball, a poor defense will probably make it difficult for the Vandals to keep up.
SP+ projection: MSU by 23.5
D-III: Mount Union at Muskingum (Saturday, 1:30 p.m., FloCollege). There's no ranking next to Division III royalty Mount Union's name, and it isn't a typo. The Purple Raiders are breaking all the wrong kinds of streaks: They had won 85 straight regular -season games heading into 2026, but they've started the year 1-2. They hadn't lost to conference mate Heidelberg since 1988 but fell 37-34 to the Student Princes (!) in Week 3.
The Purple Raiders will likely dominate Muskingum (199th in D-III SP+), but they could be vulnerable in two or three more conference games, and their first playoff absence since 1991 is a real possibility.
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 45.8
D-III: No. 2 Wisconsin-River Falls at No. 7 Wisconsin-Whitewater (Saturday, 2 p.m., local streaming). Conference play finally begins in the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference -- the best damn conference in college football -- and we're starting with a WIAC doozy. (We actually have two top-10 matchups in Division III, with No. 8 Bethel visiting No. 5 Saint John's.)
Defending national champion UWRF has already thumped a pair of ranked teams, but old heavyweight Whitewater has surged to first in D-III SP+ after winning three games by a combined 187-21. Per SP+, the WIAC has four of the top-13 teams in D-III, and it's 1-versus-2 at Perkins Stadium. Hell yes.
SP+ projection: UWW by 4.4
FCS: No. 2 South Dakota State at No. 11 Illinois State (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN+). Illinois State moved to No. 1 in FCS SP+ for the first time but suffered an immediate upset loss to Northern Iowa. Now, the Redbirds have to face a Missouri Valley heavyweight. These teams boast serious offenses; ISU moves with service academy efficiency, but SDSU has gained 20-plus yards on 10.7% of its snaps (second in FCS) and ISU gave up loads of chunk plays against UNI. The Redbirds better figure out how to rein in receivers Grahm Goering and Jack Smith.
SP+ projection: SDSU by 0.9