Gerald Skinner used to work for NASA. He wrote papers with titles like "The Galactic distribution of the 511 keV e+/e- annihilation radiation" and "Antimatter in the universe and the PAMELA/FERMI/AMS anomaly."
But in 2009, he turned his attention to something a little more frivolous and presumably much easier to understand than the behavior of the invisible forces that shape the Milky Way: the game of soccer.
Along with a colleague, Guy Freeman, Skinner wrote a paper for the Journal of Applied Statistics to "consider what, if anything, can be deduced from the result of a match about the relative strengths of the teams."
Their answer is one of my favorites in all of academic literature. Skinner and Freeman make the claim that if the result of a soccer match tells us the true strength of each team, then we should never see a scenario in which Team A beats Team B, Team B beats Team C, and Team C beats team A -- what they call an "intransitive triplet." If the scoreline is truly representative of who the better team is, then this would never happen.
They then looked at every set of triplets, where three teams play each other, over the course of World Cup history from 1938 through 2006, and found that 12% followed the "intransitive" pattern they said shouldn't happen. That percentage might seem low -- until you realize that if the results of matches were completely random, we'd expect intransitive triplets to occur 25% of the time. The results of the World Cup were only slightly better than random.
So discouraged were the authors by their findings that they titled the paper: "Are soccer matches badly designed experiments?" They go on to say this about previous tournaments: "Even on very optimistic assumptions, there is less than one-chance-in-three that it was the best team that won the cup."
Then they suggest a couple of ways to make it so the results of matches aren't so random: (1) "The possibility of increasing the size of football (soccer) goal mouths" to increase the number of goals and thus confidence in the result, and (2) "One could imagine continuing the match with successive periods of extra time until the goal difference becomes large enough to yield a chosen level of confidence."
Seventeen years later, the goals remain the same size, and extra time is still only 30 minutes long. So, you know what that means?
It means the U.S. men's national team could win the World Cup. Tell your friends that NASA says so.
But rather than stopping there and saying that there is, in fact, a chance, let's look back through the history of the World Cup and tell you something more definitive. This article is going to tell you why the USMNT is going to win the 2026 World Cup.
Reason 1: The No. 1 FIFA-ranked team has never won the World Cup
In 1992, FIFA introduced a global ranking system for all national teams created by a pair of Swiss academics. The initial system was purely based on results and didn't account for opponent quality or match importance. Yet while the model has undergone significant changes since then, the following fact has remained true:
The No. 1-ranked team has never won the World Cup. So, congratulations to France, who lost to Ivory Coast in their penultimate pre-World Cup friendly and dropped from first to third in the rankings.
The past five pre-tournament No. 1s were:
• 2022: Brazil
• 2018: Germany
• 2014: Spain
• 2010: Brazil
• 2006: Brazil
None of them reached the semifinals, and two of them went home after the group stages.
The current pre-tournament No. 1? It's Argentina, who were third just a week ago, but also leap-frogged Spain because La Roja tied Iraq 1-1 in their second-to-last friendly before the tournament.
Thankfully for the Americans, they sit all the way down at No. 17.
Eliminated team: Argentina
Reason 2: The reigning Ballon d'Or winner has never won the World Cup
Though France avoided the ignominy of entering the tournament as No. 1 in FIFA's rankings, they have made the mistake of cultivating a soccer culture so vibrant, within a country so rich, that they are able to constantly produce players considered to be the world's best.
Since 1956, when the Ballon d'Or was created, the holder of the award has not won the World Cup a single time. This should tell us something about how important any one player can be for any one soccer team, but it obviously does not. These are the past five winners in the year before the past five tournaments:
• 2006: Ronaldinho
• 2010: Lionel Messi
• 2014: Cristiano Ronaldo
• 2018: Cristiano Ronaldo
• 2022: Karim Benzema
Ronaldinho's Brazil lost in the quarterfinals, as did Messi's Argentina. Ronaldo's Portugal didn't get out of their group in 2014 and lost in the round of 16 in 2018. Benzema, meanwhile, didn't even make France's World Cup squad.
The most recent Ballon d'Or winner, of course, was Benzema's former French national team teammate, Ousmane Dembélé. Meanwhile, no American has ever been nominated for the (men's) Ballon d'Or award, let alone won it.
Eliminated team: France
Reason 3: A debutant has never won
Outside of the first two World Cups -- which had limited participants because of recurring world wars and commercial air travel still not yet existing and were won by Uruguay and Italy -- a first-time competitor has not won the World Cup.
Unfortunately, that means Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan and Uzbekistan won't be winning this summer, either. The U.S. team, meanwhile, is playing in its 11th World Cup.
Eliminated teams: Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan, Uzbekistan
Reason 4: No playoff team has ever won
It's time for me to let you in on a little bit of soccer-nerd lore: If you want to win the World Cup, you have to qualify for the World Cup. An ever-expanding field has led to a proliferation of new pathways into the tournament, including additional phases of qualifiers and interconfederation playoffs.
But despite that, no team that has failed to qualify for the World Cup through their confederation's first phase of entry has won the tournament.
In Asia, that eliminates Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who qualified through AFC's second group stage. In Europe, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden, Türkiye, and Czechia all needed to win two playoff games to make it to North America. And then Congo DR and Iraq both qualified through FIFA's intercontinental playoff.
The U.S. automatically qualified for the World Cup as a host country.
Eliminated teams: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden, Türkiye, Czechia, Congo DR, Iraq
Reason 5: No manager has ever won both the Premier League and the World Cup
Being a successful club manager doesn't have as much crossover with international success as you might think.
Only two coaches have ever won the Champions League and the World Cup: Marcello Lippi with Juventus and Italy, and Vincente del Bosque with Real Madrid and Spain. Franz Beckenbauer won the Bundesliga and the World Cup, Didier Deschamps did the same in Ligue 1, and Lippi and Del Bosque also won their own domestic titles.
But no coach has ever won both the Premier League and the World Cup. While his focus on man management over rigid tactics might seem like a great fit for Brazil, unfortunately Carlo Ancelotti is the only manager in this summer's field with a Premier League title to his name, meaning Brazil won't be winning the World Cup.
The manager of the U.S. men's national team, Mauricio Pochettino, coached Paris Saint-Germain to a Ligue 1 title in France, but his stints in the Premier League were trophyless.
Eliminated team: Brazil
Reason 6: No manager in his 60s or older has ever won the World Cup
You might look at Germany's Julian Nagelsmann, with his oversized T-shirts and his skateboard, and think, "There's no way a millennial manager could win the World Cup." But you would be wrong: Uruguay won the inaugural World Cup under the guidance of 31-year-old Alberto Suppici. It won't be long before a World Cup-winning manager is bragging about tactics-maxxing and xG-mogging.
But we still haven't seen anyone who would be eligible for Medicare in the United States lift the World Cup trophy. The oldest manager to do so was 59-year-old Del Bosque with Spain in 2010.
And so, if winning the World Cup happens to be a young man's game, then we have to eliminate a whole bunch of teams.
Goodbye to Scotland's 62-year-old Steve Clarke, South Africa's 74-year-old Hugo Broos and Austria's 67-year-old Ralf Rangnick. It's also adiós for Colombia's 60-year-old Nestor Lorenzo, the Netherlands' 63-year-old Ronald Koeman, Spain's 64-year-old Luis de la Fuente and Iran's 62-year-old Amir Ghalenoei. Same goes for Uruguay's 70-year-old Marcelo Bielsa, Algeria's 62-year-old Vladimir Petkovic and Mexico's 67-year-old Javier Aguirre. So, too, must we bid adieu to Paraguay's 63-year-old Gustavo Alfaro, Belgium's 62-year-old Rudi Garcia and Ghana's 73-year-old Carlos Queiroz.
Pochettino, by the way, is 54. Phew.
Eliminated teams: Scotland, South Africa, Austria, Colombia, Netherlands, Spain, Iran, Uruguay, Algeria, Mexico, Paraguay, Belgium, Ghana
Reason 7: The only first-time trophy-winner since 1966 was a host nation
Since 1966, only one country has won its first major international trophy by winning the World Cup. That was England in 1966, when long-distance travel still hadn't been perfected and home-field advantage was heavier than it'll ever be again.
So, if you have never won either a World Cup or a continental tournament, then we must rule you out -- unless you're one of the hosts. But the two remaining hosts in this exercise, Canada and the U.S., have both won the Gold Cup, so it doesn't matter.
In Europe, Croatia, Norway, and Switzerland are all trophyless. In South America, Ecuador has never even reached the finals of the Copa America. In North America, the only Gold Cup winners are the three hosts of the 2026 World Cup, so Haiti and Panama are gone. In Africa, all five remaining sides (Egypt, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Morocco, and Tunisia) have won at least one Africa Cup of Nations, and the same goes for the remaining Asian federation teams (Japan, South Korea, and Australia). New Zealand, too, are the reigning OFC Men's Nations Cup victors.
Eliminated teams: Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama
Reason 8: England has never won an international tournament outside of England
Though it once was home, it has never actually come home.
England arrive to this World Cup as a heavy favorite, but history tells us the U.S. has nothing to worry about here.
Eliminated team: England
Reason 9: No team ranked worse than 18th in the FIFA rankings has won the World Cup
The highest-ranked team -- lowest-ranked team? -- to win the tournament since the rankings were introduced: France in 1998, when they entered the tournament as FIFA's 18th-best team in the world.
This spells the end for New Zealand (85), Egypt (29), Ivory Coast (33), Canada (30), South Korea (25), Australia (27), and Tunisia (45).
Again, with the U.S. at No. 17 in FIFA's world ranking, the Americans sit firmly in the zone of contenders.
Eliminated teams: New Zealand, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Canada, South Korea, Australia, Tunisia
Reason 10: No player over the age of 40 has ever won the World Cup
The oldest player to lift the World Cup trophy is Dino Zoff, Italy's 40-year-old starting goalkeeper and captain at the 1982 World Cup in Spain.
Barring a last-second injury, Cristiano Ronaldo will be Portugal's captain this summer and their starting center forward. He turned 41 in February.
The oldest player on the U.S. World Cup roster is Tim Ream at a mere 38. He'll make USMNT history as the oldest player to represent the Americans at a World Cup.
Eliminated teams: Portugal
Reason 11: Every World Cup winner since 1982 has employed at least one player from one of these top teams
In all of the past 11 World Cups, the winning team has featured someone who plays for one of these teams: Bayern Munich, AC Milan, Inter Milan or Liverpool.
From the past five champs:
• 2006: Gennaro Gattuso, Alberto Gilardino, Alessandro Nesta, Filippo Inzaghi, and Andrea Pirlo (AC Milan); Marco Materazzi (Inter Milan)
• 2010: Fernando Torres (Liverpool)
• 2014: Manuel Neuer, Philipp Lahm, Jerome Boateng, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Toni Kroos, Thomas Müller, Mario Götze (Bayern Munich)
• 2018: France: Corentin Tolisso (Bayern Munich)
• 2022: Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan)
Among the remaining five World Cup teams that haven't been eliminated by any of the previous reasons yet, neither Senegal nor Morocco have permanent members of Bayern, Liverpool or either of the Milan clubs.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has AC Milan's Christian Pulisic.
Eliminated teams: Senegal, Morocco
Reason 12: A team that has been eliminated from the group stages in two consecutive World Cups has never won the next World Cup
How much does past World Cup performance predict future success? Here's how the past five winners fared in the tournament before they won:
• Italy, 2006: lost in the round of 16 in 2002
• Spain, 2010: lost in the round of 16 in 2006
• Germany, 2014: lost in the semifinals in 2010
• France, 2018: lost in the quarterfinals in 2014
• Argentina, 2022: lost in the round of 16 in 2018
In fact, only one team has ever won the World Cup after being knocked out in the group stages in the previous edition: Brazil, in 1970.
However, Germany has been eliminated in each of the past two group stages, and no team has won the tournament after doing that -- though Italy did reach the final in 1970, where they, of course, lost to Brazil.
The U.S., meanwhile, was eliminated in the round of 16 at the last World Cup.
Eliminated team: Germany
Reason 13: Across the past 10 World Cups, no team has won without someone who has scored at least 17 international goals on the roster
Pretty much every team that wins the World Cup has some kind of star goal scorer -- except for France in 1998. Though Thierry Henry and David Trezeguet would go on to become stars, the 1998 tournament was just the start of their international careers. Hilariously, France's starting center forward for most of the '98, including the final, was Stephane Guivarc'h, a player who scored only one goal -- in his entire international career.
Guvarc'h scored in his France debut in a friendly against South Africa less than a year before the team won the World Cup, and then he never scored again. In fact, six of his 14 career caps -- 42% -- came in the 1998 tournament. (I suggest you watch highlights of the final against Brazil just to understand or remember how out of place he looked.)
Though seemingly every other contributing member of that France team eventually became a legendary figure in the history of modern soccer, Guvarc'h became a swimming pool salesman.
Without a goal from their starting striker, France's goal-scoring strength in '98 came, instead, from a pair of attacking midfielders in Zinedine Zidane and Youri Djorkaeff. The former scored twice in the final, and the latter was France's leading scorer coming into the tournament with 17 goals -- a substantially lower number than the pre-tournament leader on any winning team since 1986.
Heading into this summer, Japan's leading scorer Ayase Ueda with 16 career goals -- just under the mark they need. Pulisic, meanwhile, has scored 33 goals.
Eliminated team: Japan
... So, with just a single nation able to clear all 13 hurdles, this rigorous process of objectively selected historical factors leaves us with only one potential outcome: The United States is going to win the 2026 World Cup.