When it comes to the three previous World Cups hosted in North America, South America has a 100% record.
Brazil were memorable victors at Mexico 1970, Argentina came out on top in the same venue 16 years later, and it was Brazil again who lifted the trophy at the end of USA 1994. That tournament makes an interesting point of comparison with this year's competition.
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It would be inaccurate to say that the South Americans will be on home soil in the next few weeks. The distance between Buenos Aires and Mexico City is further than that between London and Mumbai. North America is huge, but some of the South American contingent will certainly feel at home.
This will not be an easy World Cup for traveling fans, but teams like Colombia and Brazil should be able to count on massive support from local communities. And teams that participated in the 2024 Copa América held in the U.S. gained some valuable experience, providing a blueprint of what to expect from a summer tournament held in North America, and this should give them a small head start over non-acclimatized opponents.
But it will not be easy.
Did the heat of the U.S. benefit the South Americans in 1994? Perhaps. But Brazil needed a penalty shootout to beat Italy, with Sweden and Bulgaria completing the podium. And there is little doubt that the top European teams are much stronger in 2026 than they were 32 years ago.
Spain has made giant strides since 1994, while France and England were at such a low point that they didn't even qualify. It is striking that every Brazil campaign since their last win in 2002 has ended as soon as they came up against a European side in the knockout rounds.
If South America fails, it will not be for lack of relevant experience. National team play on the continent essentially functions on a World Cup-to-World Cup cycle; there is a year or so to bed in a new coach, followed by 18 qualifying matches with a Copa América in the middle. Although plenty of teams make it through to the finals (six out of ten, with another having a chance in the intercontinental playoffs), qualification in South America is a relentless test, with no real minnows in the field and no easy away game. A total of 18 tough matches plus a tournament should leave the teams battle hardened and ready for the World Cup.
Two of South America's teams, though, appear to have peaked too soon.
Under coach Néstor Lorenzo, Colombia went on a 28-game unbeaten run beginning in March 2022 and ending in the final of that 2024 Copa América. Since then, they have not been as convincing, and head for North America with morale badly bruised by the mauling they took at the end of March by what effectively was the French reserve team.
Uruguay are another side that can look back on the Copa América as a turning point. Marcelo Bielsa seemed like a good fit for a national side needing a generational change. He had a core of players who seemed well suited to his dynamic high-pressing style and the early signs were hugely promising. There was an impressive win away to Argentina, a commanding victory over Brazil, and a flood of goals at the start of the Copa América.
Then it all seemed to go wrong. Luis Suárez retired from the national team and since then, the goals have dried up. Worse still, the chances have dried up. Bielsa's teams are supposed to make the opponents struggle in their own half of the field. Much to the concern of the coach, in recent times Uruguay have struggled to cross the halfway line, hitting a new low point with a 5-1 collapse against the United States in November.
Uruguay, then, are at a low ebb, but it could make them dangerous. This is a team that often responds well to having their backs to the wall, and the format of this year's World Cup allows them -- and Colombia -- a bit of breathing space to play their way into the competition.
Two other South American sides, meanwhile, head north on a high.
One is Paraguay, back in the World Cup for the first time since 2010. Two years ago, it seemed as if they were destined to miss out once more. Then, after a disastrous Copa América, came Gustavo Alfaro -- their third coach of the campaign -- and everything changed, with very few changes of personnel.
Alfaro gave the side structure and confidence. Traditional virtues of defensive resilience returned, added to flashes of skill from Diego Gómez and, especially, Julio Enciso. In his own low-key way, Alfaro has become a national hero, and hopes are extremely high that his team can keep grinding its way through the competition.
And Ecuador probably have an even more compelling case to be seen as dark horses. The country did not make its World Cup debut until 2002, but based on excellent player development, they are well on the way to being considered a genuine force -- as Saturday's UEFA Champions League final made clear.
With Paris Saint-Germain's Willian Pacho on one side and Arsenal's Piero Hincapié on the other, it is clear why the side have such a splendid defensive record. Going into the final warm-up friendly against Guatemala, they are 18 matches unbeaten.
It's true that such runs have a habit of coming to an end when the World Cup starts, but few sides will relish facing Ecuador. The problem? A lack of goals. The team remains dependent on the veteran Enner Valencia. But the format of this World Cup allows them to progress with little more than defensive solidity.
And that, of course, leaves the big two, the South American giants, for whom anything less than World Cup victory is seen as a failure.
Brazil coach Carlo Ancelotti has shrewdly got himself under contract up until 2030. If Brazil are not successful in North America, the deal might have been harder to negotiate. He has had little time to work, and his side is an enigma -- even more so after Sunday's friendly in Rio de Janeiro against Panama. A 6-2 win makes it look like a flawless farewell to their own fans, but the truth is more complicated.
It was a game of two halves, and in the first one, (center backs aside) Brazil were at full strength and produced 45 minutes of awkward, disjointed play. After the reserves came on at the interval, it was a different story -- which is a tale of systems rather than of names.
The opening idea, the way that Ancelotti has been constructing his side, was with four up front. Even though Matheus Cunha kept tracking back, it left the midfield duo outnumbered and outplayed. Panama had more possession and the same number of shots. After the break, Brazil played an extra man in midfield, with Lucas Paquetá and Danilo Santos on either side of Fabinho.
They enjoyed far more control and racked up the goals. Ancelotti confessed after the game that he was leaving with a head full of doubts. It is far better, of course, to get them out of the way in a friendly two weeks before the big kickoff. Brazil, then, are work in progress.
On the one hand, their midfield resources look light. On the other hand, if Ancelotti can balance out the side, then the array of attacking talent is frightening.
Reigning champions Argentina, meanwhile, already have both the formula and its variations. With one or two newcomers, this is essentially the squad that won in Qatar -- and have since followed it up with a Copa América triumph and an impressive qualification campaign.
Where other teams are looking to find a blend in the course of the competition, Argentina's key question is whether they can hold it all together for eight more matches. There might be some wear and tear in the machine -- in a Lionel Messi about to turn 39 this month, and in a defensive unit which often looks vulnerable and is essentially unchanged from the Qatar campaign.
Argentina are certainly going to shine in the World Cup. The midfield, full of players who are right in their prime, is well capable of weaving beautiful patterns all over the North American pitches.
They will provide us with some moments for the purists. But will it be enough to lift a second successive trophy? The challenge looks tougher than in any of the previous North American World Cups.