Forget Arsenal's Premier League wobble in the face of Manchester City pressure -- the most hotly contested title battle this season comes to a head this weekend when National League highflyers York City and Rochdale face off for a place in the English Football League.
After a long, gruelling season in the pyramid's fifth tier, Saturday's contest will decide who lifts the National League trophy, but potentially also impact the direction of travel for both teams moving forward.
York City require only a point to clinch the title, but Rochdale, who must win, have home advantage.
History shows success usually breeds further success for the winners, and missing out on promotion is an indication of future decline.
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How did York City and Rochdale get here?
York City and Rochdale have laid waste to the rest of the National League over the course of 45 matchdays, racking up 107 and 105 points, respectively.
While both have won 33 games, league leaders York City have a two-point cushion at the top thanks to their eight draws compared to Rochdale's six.
In November's reverse fixture, York City ran out comprehensive 4-1 winners thanks to braces from Ollie Pearce and Josh Stones.
York City thought they had clinched promotion last weekend thanks to their 3-0 win over Yeovil Town and Rochdale's seemingly imminent draw with Braintree Town.
But as the York City players gathered around a mobile phone watching a live stream of their rivals' match and waiting for the moment they would be crowned champions, Rochdale's Emmanuel Dieseruvwe scored a 99th-minute winner in Essex to put the champagne on ice.
Why is failing to win the National League title usually so damaging for the losers?
Since the playoff system and the availability of a second promotion spot was introduced to the fifth tier at the end of the 2002-03 season, the team that finishes second and misses out on automatic promotion has only gone on to achieve promotion via the playoffs six times out of 23.
For teams that narrowly miss out on top spot, the playoff presents a second chance -- but it's not one that is often taken.
In 2003-04, Hereford finished one point behind champions Chester City in what was then known as the Conference. Hereford, though, missed out on promotion through the playoffs as they were beaten by a Shrewsbury team that finished 17 points behind them in the table.
Wrexham amassed 98 points in 2011-12 but still finished five off Fleetwood Town. The Welsh side were quickly knocked out of the playoff semifinals and endured a series of midtable finishes before their Hollywood takeover a decade later.
York found themselves in this situation last year, earning 96 points but finishing six behind Barnet who look on course for a comfortable midtable finish in League Two this season. York were knocked out of the playoffs by Oldham Athletic who went on to secure promotion at Wembley.
The psychological impact of missing out on automatic promotion seems to have a particularly negative effect on runners-up in the National League. Additionally, the high turnover of players in the lower divisions of English football make sustained promotion challenges difficult to maintain for those who fall short of a spot in the EFL and those who miss out can spend years kicking their heels before returning for another shot at the big time.
Why is winning the National League title usually so pivotal for the winners?
In stark comparison to the fate suffered by those teams that miss out on an automatic spot in League Two, the National League champions tend to go from strength to strength.
Of the 43 teams promoted since the National League's 2002-03 playoff revamp, only 16 have dropped back outside the EFL. Equally, not a single team promoted to League Two has gone straight back down the following season.
Six teams have made it as far as the Championship and Luton Town even made it all the way to the Premier League (where they were relegated after a single season).
The situation York and Rochdale find themselves in this weekend is reminiscent of the meeting between Wrexham and Notts County in April 2022. Wrexham, recently taken over by actors Rob Reynolds and Rob Mac, were in second, behind their promotion rivals on goal difference with a game in hand. Both teams had 100 points each and had scored more than 200 goals between them and yet only one automatic spot was available.
In the end, Wrexham prevailed in a 3-2 thriller which gave them the boost they needed to eventually wrap up a return to the EFL for the first time since 2008. They have since risen through the divisions and are now seeking to secure a playoff spot that could see them playing in the Premier League in August.
It should also be said that Notts County did also secure promotion by the barest of margins -- beating Chesterfield on penalties in the playoff final. Unlike Wrexham, they have found the EFL a trickier task to navigate, but they are in contention for an appearance in the League Two playoff appearance this term.
Why did York City complain last season?
One automatic promotion place from the fifth tier has been available since 1987, with the second spot available to the playoff winners since the 2002-03 season.
Any change to the number of promotion places available from the National League to League Two would require a majority of EFL clubs to vote in favour of the change.
While extremely popular with clubs in the lower leagues of the English football pyramid, any change is very unlikely to be voted for as it would only increase the chance of EFL teams being relegated to the National League.
York City's failure to achieve promotion last season prompted co-owner Julie-Anne Uggla to write an open letter to the EFL and National League in which she described the current promotion system as having a "glaring imbalance."
A few months previously, the 72 clubs in the National League -- including those teams in the National League's North and South divisions -- launched the 3UP campaign that advocated for three teams to go up from the fifth tier into League Two.
York missed out on automatic promotion last season by six points and were knocked out of the playoffs by an Oldham team that finished 23 points and three places behind them in the league table.
"I am writing to express my deep concern and disappointment at the current promotion system between the National League and League Two, following a season where York City FC, despite finishing 28 points clear of seventh place and winning 12 more matches, were denied promotion," Uggla said in the open letter.
"Such a glaring imbalance not only undermines sporting merit but erodes the very foundations of fair competition.
"While I am aware of the historical basis for the two-up structure, it is no longer fit for purpose. The gap between the top National League clubs and the lower EFL clubs has narrowed, and in many cases reversed, making the case for three-up promotion beyond compelling.
"The '3UP' campaign rightly reflects the sentiment of every National League club and countless supporters."
