Liverpool will miss out on Champions League football next year. There were some really rough moments this season, they're losing sporting director Julian Ward (a disciple of Michael Edwards, who built the current squad before leaving a year ago), and there is some uncertainty with the ownership who initially put all or part of the club up for sale, only to later change their minds.
That said, we don't think they're that far away. Top to bottom, this is probably the second-best squad in the Premier League. They've been pretty forward-thinking with their signings and contract extensions (though they've had a couple of misses, too) and are not in a situation where they need major surgery this summer, provided they believe this past season was just a blip and they continue to have faith in Jurgen Klopp. (And, as we see it, they should.)
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The issue is midfield, as evidenced by their pursuit of Jude Bellingham. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, James Milner, Roberto Firmino and Naby Keita are all being released, which should free up some money to ideally bring in two players. Ogden is particularly bullish here, thinking that for less than what they would have spent for Bellingham, they could probably add a dynamic Ligue 1 midfielder and a proven Premier League player, like Alexis Mac Allister (who has a release clause) or Mason Mount (who is one year away from free agency).
(It seems like a move for Mac Allister is close to being announced and while that will help, they need more help in midfield.)
There's a big call to be made around Trent Alexander-Arnold, too. Do you convert him into a midfielder, which means finding a right-back who's ready for the first team? Do you work on the version of him we saw late in the season, stepping into midfield? Or are you tempted to move on if the right offer comes in?
Editor's Note: This is the third in a series of stories over the coming weeks applying the same "who to keep, who to extend and who to move on" approach to all the top clubs in the Premier League and Europe. You can find our Manchester City edition here, and our Arsenal edition here.
Goalkeepers
Alisson (30 years old, contract expires in 2027)
Verdict: Keep
Adrian (36, 2023)
MARCOTTI: He has been a good servant to the club but has slipped to No. 3 and, at his age, you imagine he wants to be at least a No. 2.
Verdict: Release
Caoimhin Kelleher (24, 2026)
OGDEN: The key question here is whether he wants to continue as Alisson's backup. He's battling Gavin Bazunu for the Ireland keeper role, and he has now been a backup for two seasons. Not playing regularly isn't going to help him. He might ask for a transfer, in which case I think Liverpool would be grown up about it and he could also fetch a good fee.
MARCOTTI: I broadly agree, though I wonder if he could be loaned to a Premier League team for a season to get playing time. It might also help if they were to move him on next summer.
You can view him as a long-term replacement for Alisson, but the reality is Alisson has plenty left in the tank. Kelleher is 24 and probably isn't going to want to wait around another five or six years. But of course, if he leaves, you either extend Adrian another season if he's happy to stay or you have to find a backup.
Verdict: Keep
Defenders
Trent Alexander-Arnold (24 years old, contract expires in 2025)
OGDEN: It's a huge question. If you keep him, you have to extend him. If not, this is the time to unload him, though his skill set is so unique that I'm not sure how many teams would be interested in him. It's down to how Klopp sees him. I'm not sure he's dynamic enough to play in midfield on a Klopp team, so the question is to what degree you trust him at right back.
MARCOTTI: I think what he gives you going forward is so important that I can live with his occasional defensive mishaps. Plus, he can improve. I agree: It has to be Klopp's call, and it's a big one, but I think he'll want to keep him. And that means you have to give him a long-term deal.
OGDEN: I'm not sure this is a decision you need to make straight away. He's a local lad, he's committed to the club, he's going to want to stay, I think you can wait to see how the new season unfolds with the new signings and make a decision in October or November.
Verdict: Split (keep and extend his contract/keep and wait)
Ibrahima Konate (23, 2026)
MARCOTTI: I think he has been exceptional.
Verdict: Keep
Virgil van Dijk (31, 2025)
OGDEN: He's totemic, you have to look to extend him.
MARCOTTI: I don't see any reason to extend him now. He's 32 in July, he has another two years, he's not the sort of guy who is going to grumble and try to force a move next summer when he has a year left or wind down his contract so he can leave on a free. I think you can bide your time, see where you are, see where he is and see what he wants to do.
Verdict: Split (Keep/Keep, but do not extend his contract)
Joe Gomez (25, 2027)
OGDEN: He's versatile, I just don't think he's very good on a consistent basis. He hasn't kicked on, but he's a good squad player.
MARCOTTI: I agree. Plus I'm not sure you'd get significant money for him.
Verdict: Keep
Joel Matip (31, 2024)
MARCOTTI: He's 32 in the summer, he's played very little in three of the past four years, I see no need to extend his contract.
OGDEN: I think you have to extend him, because the alternative is Nat Philips. Or, if you find a new club for him, you have to bring in another centerback.
Verdict: Split (keep/keep and extend, or find a new club)
Nat Phillips (26, 2025)
OGDEN: Klopp never plays him. He was on loan at Bournemouth last year, and this year he made two league appearances. Somebody will give them money for him; he did a job during lockdown after all. I think they can get £10m or £15m for him. Let's not forget, they got £17m for Neco Williams and £23.5m for Rhian Brewster in transfer fees, so they're really good at getting good money for their young players.
MARCOTTI: I assume he wants to play, so let him go and look to bring in a young center back whom you can develop and can then replace the depth he provides.
Verdict: Split (loan/find a new club)

