The break between the Champions League group stage and knockout rounds always feels a bit strange. The competition drives and dictates the European soccer season to the point where we follow the top-four races in the top leagues as closely as we do the title races -- or more so, due to the competitiveness of such races -- but we typically take an approximately two-month break from the competition in the winter months. This year, said break was 3½ months.
A lot's gone on in the soccer world since Nov. 2, when RB Leipzig and AC Milan stomped Shakhtar Donetsk and Salzburg, respectively, to claim the final spots in the round of 16. Barcelona established full control of LaLiga's title race ... after getting eliminated from the Champions League. Arsenal maintained its edge on the field in the Premier League. Bayern Munich pulled away from the Bundesliga field, only to get reeled back in a bit. Chelsea and Liverpool went from wobbly to worse. Manchester United released its most famous player and immediately surged. Oh yeah, and the entire club soccer world paused for weeks while Lionel Messi and Argentina won the World Cup.
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But now the competition's back, and damn if the pecking order doesn't seem a little blurry. From both betting and odds perspectives, Manchester City and Bayern are the clear favorites, but the former has won just three of its last six matches in all competitions, the latter one of four. PSG has lost Kylian Mbappe to injury in the short term and has shown spotty road form since returning to action.
Real Madrid is banged up. Liverpool and Chelsea are playing like mid-table Premier League teams, which they are. Benfica, good enough to top PSG in Group H last fall, lost its most exciting young player (midfielder Enzo Fernandez) to a big-money transfer in late January.
It's all a bit of a mess. Of the top seven or eight favorites heading into the round of 16, only one, Napoli, is playing all that well. Will that lead to some shocking results over the next couple of weeks? Will the sport's sleepwalking big names use the Champions League as a shot in the arm and find fifth gear again? We're about to find out.
To brace ourselves for the midweek matches ahead, let's walk through the remaining field. Who's favored? Why might each team win the competition? What's each team's most fatal flaw?
The action begins on Tuesday in Milan (Tottenham Hotspur at AC Milan) and Paris (Bayern at PSG).
The favorites
Manchester City
Caesars and FiveThirtyEight odds: +170 (equivalent to 37%) and 19%, respectively
Round of 16 opponent: RB Leipzig (Feb. 22 and March 14)
Why they will win: They might still be the best team in Europe. Erling Haaland has produced as expected (31 goals in 28 matches) since arriving last summer. But installing him at the top of City's attack has in some ways stifled its flow and creativity.
There have been just enough iffy results of late -- a 2-0 loss to Southampton in the League Cup, recent one-goal defeats to Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur -- to keep the Sky Blues five points back in the Premier League title race and prompt a series of "Is City worse off with Haaland?" takes. In this same iffy time period, however, they've scored wins over Arsenal and Chelsea (twice), and they've still averaged nearly two goals per match in all competitions since the restart.
Caesars still lists them as overwhelming Champions League favorites. For all of their wonky form, they still have Haaland, World Cup hero Julian Alvarez, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva and some of the best and most creative attacking talent in Europe.
Why they won't: Pep's in Tinker Mode. Pep Guardiola is searching for solutions to City's stolidness at the moment and with the pieces to hand, he'll probably find them. He hasn't yet, though, and his tinkering is taking City to weird places. Joao Cancelo found himself out of favor and took a surprise loan to Bayern. De Bruyne, City's engine, started the Spurs loss on the bench for "tactical reasons."
City's formation against Spurs was rather indecipherable -- it was kind of a 4-2-3-1, kind of a 4-4-2, kind of a 4-1-2-1-2, kind of a 3-2-3-2 -- and produced a passing map that could best be described as "What the hell is this?"
First-year City additions have often taken a while to gel and despite his productivity (which forces Guardiola to keep him in the lineup at all times), Haaland is no different. Guardiola will inevitably find the answers he's looking for, but Leipzig is catching the Sky Blues at a pretty vulnerable time.
Bayern Munich
Caesars and FiveThirtyEight odds: +600 (equivalent to 14%) and 22%
Round of 16 opponent: PSG (Feb. 14 and March 8)
Why they will win: They still have the most attacking upside in the world. When Bayern began its restart with a trio of 1-1 draws and a number of contenders inched closer to the 10-time defending Bundesliga champions at the top of the table, we overreacted as we always do to brief runs of mortal form. They miss Robert Lewandowski too much! The team chemistry is awful! Julian Nagelsmann is going to get canned if they lose to PSG!
Granted, that last part might still be on the table, but Bayern responded to this complete and utter collapse by torching Mainz and Wolfsburg by a combined 8-2. Their attention span waned against Wolfsburg and they almost let their opponents back in the match, but Jamal Musiala put things away with an otherworldly one-man show.
MUSIALA ALL BY HIMSELF 🤯🔥 pic.twitter.com/dCSuFF0hb4
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) February 5, 2023
For all of Bayern's supposed struggles, Musiala still has 14 goals and nine assists in all competitions, while Serge Gnabry has 10 and 10 and three other players have combined double-digit goals with at least four assists. (None of them are Thomas Muller or Kingsley Coman, who combined for three of the goals against Wolfsburg.)
This might not be 2020-level Bayern, but in a sea of contenders performing beneath their full capabilities, the German champs remain absurdly dangerous. (They have Cancelo now, too, who already has two assists in just 149 minutes.) And they should get the injured Sadio Mane back by the time the second leg against PSG rolls around.
Why they won't: Opponents take better shots. This team boasts some of the most impressive finishing skill in the world, but without Lewandowski as a center of gravity up front, Bayern's raw shot quality has suffered a bit. While they still attempt far more shots than anyone in the Bundesliga (0.20 per possession), their 0.11 xG per shot ranks only 10th in the Bundesliga; league opponents, meanwhile, are averaging 0.12 xG per shot (14th).
Is that a huge difference? No, but with Leo Messi, Neymar and (for the second leg, at least) Kylian Mbappe on deck, shot quality could quickly become a massive issue in Bayern's quest for a seventh European crown.
The hopefuls
Paris Saint-Germain
Caesars and FiveThirtyEight odds: +700 (equivalent to 13%) and 5%
Round of 16 opponent: Bayern Munich (February 14 and March 8)
Why they will win: The sum of the parts is still overwhelming. Messi. Neymar. Mbappe (eventually). Achraf Hakimi. Gianluigi Donnarumma. Marco Verratti. You get the point. When PSG ignite, it's pretty jaw-dropping.
They began the season outscoring their first six league opponents by a combined 24-4. Despite long battles with an iffy attention span -- plus injuries and a long easing-in process for stars following the World Cup -- they've still scored 85 goals and allowed just 27 in 32 matches. The three stars up front have 57 goals and 35 assists between them. The whole never seems to match the sum of the parts, but that doesn't mean the sum isn't immense.
Why they won't: We've been down this road before. There's a pretty reliable script for how a team with this many stars falls apart at the wrong time. First, because of injuries and load management (among other things) the three scorers aren't all on the field together much: Mbappe, Messi and Neymar have all played in just 17 of 32 matches. Second, the midfield's duties become overwhelming with the absence of any pressing presence up front. Third, the depth of talent still isn't what other clubs can boast, and aging veterans like Sergio Ramos (36), Verratti (30) and Juan Bernat (29) are being asked to play heavy minutes.
PSG brought in no new blood in the winter transfer window, while Marquinhos, Ramos and defender Presnel Kimpembe have all been in iffy form of late. They have only the third-best xG differential in Ligue 1 since the restart, they've lost to Lens, Rennes and Marseille on the road since Jan. 1, and while Mbappe will return for the second leg against Bayern, his absence in the home leg could put them in a bad position heading to Munich.
Real Madrid
Caesars and FiveThirtyEight odds: +1100 (equivalent to 8%) and 9%
Round of 16 opponent: Liverpool (Feb. 21 and March 15)
Why they will win: Come on, they're Real Madrid. If any team in this competition gets the benefit of the doubt, it's the defending (and 14-time) champions. The Blancos have been waylaid by injury of late; defenders Eder Militao, Ferland Mendy and Lucas Vazquez and (of course) midfielder Eden Hazard are out, while both forward (and reigning Ballon d'Or winner) Karim Benzema and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois have missed significant time. They had to jet to Morocco for the Club World Cup -- they beat Al Ahly on Wednesday and will face surprise finalist Al-Hilal on Saturday -- and their visit to Liverpool on Feb. 21 will be their 37th match of the season already. (Real Madrid players also topped 3,500 combined minutes at the World Cup.)
But ... they're Real Madrid! When they have to show up, they still show up in force. Benzema is rounding into form -- he has two goals and two assists in his past four matches -- and while they were only the third- or fourth-best team on paper in last year's Champions League, they beat PSG, Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool in succession, always putting together a charge when a charge was required. Until they don't, let's assume they still will.
Why they won't: There is a wear-and-tear limit here. Read that first paragraph again. This team is getting pushed around by age, injury and volume. They're scoring less than they did last season, and their close-game magic has dissipated. Before leaving for Morocco, they had won just three of their last nine matches in Spain. Vinicius Junior is the only steady presence in the lineup, and he's getting fouled and abused more than anyone in the game. This is a lot, even for Real Madrid.
Napoli
Caesars and FiveThirtyEight odds: +1100 (equivalent to 8%) and 8%
Round of 16 opponent: Eintracht Frankfurt (Feb. 21 and March 15)
Why they will win: Who's playing better right now? They lead Serie A by 13 points, having scored 10 more goals than anyone else while allowing the fewest. They outscored their first five Champions League opponents, including Liverpool and Ajax (twice), by a combined 20-4. Victor Osimhen has 20 goals and 17 assists in 21 matches, and revelatory 21-year old winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has 10 and 12 in 22.
Luciano Spalletti's squad tilts the field and dominates possession like a Champions League contender is supposed to do, but they've been nearly invulnerable to counter-attacks. They dominate set pieces, too.
Looking solely at production levels and not Transfermarkt player values, you could pretty easily conclude that this is, at worst, one of the two or three best teams in Europe. And while they've faced very little adversity this season, they've responded well to what they've faced: Their goal differential when trailing in league play is +4.2 per 90 possessions, as good as you'll ever see, and after losing to Inter in their first game after the World Cup break, they proceeded to destroy Juventus 5-1 and win five straight league matches.
This team is a wrecking ball, and while it's always fair to wonder if Cinderella's carriage will turn into a pumpkin at some point, they've given us no reason to doubt them yet.
Why they won't: Schedule strength. With AC Milan's recent collapse, Napoli have played only five matches this season against teams in the current top 20 of FiveThirtyEight's SPI ratings. They won their first three in resounding fashion -- 4-1 over No. 8 Liverpool, then 6-1 and 4-2 over No. 15 Ajax -- but Liverpool got revenge with a 2-0 win in the group stage finale, and No. 18 Inter indeed beat them 1-0 on Jan. 4. Their attack is drastically reliant on two players, and as the schedule strength increases, they might find their opportunities to score dwindling quickly.
Liverpool
Caesars and FiveThirtyEight odds: +900 (equivalent to 10%) and 5%
Round of 16 opponent: Real Madrid (Feb. 21 and March 15)
Why they will win: They still attempt far more shots than you (and regression to the mean is real). Jurgen Klopp's Reds are suffering some serious issues right now, issues that go beyond suffering some bad breaks here and there.
They have suffered a few bad breaks, though. They're sixth in the Premier League in xG differential (only decimal points out of fourth), and they still have the third-best attack in the league. They'll likely finish the season higher in the table than they currently are.
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Since the season began, Liverpool has beaten Manchester City (twice), Napoli, Newcastle, Spurs and Ajax (twice). The upside is there, even if they aren't showing it as much, and despite their pressure numbers suffering as they battle injury and midfield age and break in key new pieces up front, they still overwhelm you from a volume perspective: In Premier League play, they have attempted 0.17 shots per possession (third in the league) and allowed only 0.10 (third). That's six to seven more shots per match.
They don't create enough high-quality looks and they give you too many, but if you don't convert those chances, they'll still take you down. That becomes doubly true if or when key attackers snap out of finishing slumps -- Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez and newcomer Cody Gakpo have combined to score just four goals from shots worth 8.3 xG since the restart. That won't last.
Why they won't: No good team has worse transition defense at the moment. Okay, they don't just give you too many good looks, they give you too many great looks. Of the teams in the current SPI top 20, no one comes close to the 0.14 xG per shot that Liverpool allows in league play, and no one allows as many goals in what I call "transition possessions" -- possessions that start outside the attacking third and last fewer than 20 seconds.
As was the case two seasons ago during a run of center-back injuries, Liverpool is just getting shredded in transition. Not even shot quantity advantages can overcome that.
Chelsea
Caesars and FiveThirtyEight odds: +1400 (equivalent to 7%) and 5%
Round of 16 opponent: Borussia Dortmund (Feb. 15 and March 7)
Why they will win: They're unscoutable? In their first match after the winter transfer window closed, a 0-0 draw with Fulham, Graham Potter deployed 16 players, including substitutes. Five of them had been added to the roster in January (Enzo Fernandez, Benoit Badiashile, Mykhaylo Mudryk, Noni Madueke, David Datro Fofana), two more were added in the summer (Marc Cucurella, Raheem Sterling) and one returned from loan over the summer (Conor Gallagher). Two more newcomers (Kalidou Koulibaly, Carney Chukwuemeka) sat on the bench, and four others have recorded at least 300 minutes this season.
This is as new a team as you'll ever see in the Champions League knockout stages. That they made it here with ease -- after an initial upset loss to Dinamo Zagreb (which led to Thomas Tuchel's firing), they didn't lose again in the group stage -- is a reminder of their upside, as is the fact that they still have many of the players from 2021's Champions League title run.
Things clearly haven't clicked for Potter, and this overwhelming newness hasn't helped in that regard, but it's going to be awfully hard to scout and predict what Chelsea will do moving forward, and if they ever find a rhythm, they could make an unexpected run.
Why they won't: They're the 10th-best team in England. Chelsea is ninth in the EPL table and 10th in both goal differential and xG differential. They've beaten only Bournemouth and Crystal Palace since the restart, and wins by 2-1 over Salzburg and 2-1 over West Ham are their only victories against teams ranked in even the SPI top 35 this season. They've played six matches against the current Premier League top four, and they've taken a single point while getting outscored 10-1.
This isn't an out-of-rhythm team that's hinted at massive upside this season; it's just a plain old midtable Premier League team. Why would that suddenly change next week?
Benfica
Caesars and FiveThirtyEight odds: +1800 (equivalent to 5%) and 7%
Round of 16 opponent: Club Brugge (Feb. 15 and March 7)
Why they will win: Roger Schmidt has what he needs. We're used to the best teams in Portugal faring pretty well in the Champions League. At least one Portuguese team has reached the round of 16 in seven of the past eight seasons (two did in 2021-22), and at least one has reached the quarterfinals in three of the past four. Porto came achingly close to the semis in 2021, and now Benfica is favored to advance over Club Brugge.