Just like that, the field has been cut to four.
The postseason has arrived, and the semifinals are set as the race toward the 2026 NBL Championship enters its most unforgiving stretch.
The Sydney Kings and South East Melbourne Phoenix both surged into the playoffs riding late-season momentum and, from opposite sides of the bracket, appear on a potential collision course for the Championship Series. Standing in their way are the Adelaide 36ers, led by the league's now six-time MVP, and a Perth Wildcats squad that has already fought its way through the play-in games and arrives battle-tested with a chance to seize a short best-of-three series.
Two series. Four teams with very different paths to this point. And in the NBL's ruthless semifinal format -- where momentum can flip overnight and sample sizes shrink to almost nothing -- an entire season's body of work can come down to just two wins.
So, what will decide who advances? Here are the biggest questions hanging over each semifinal matchup.
Sydney Kings (1) vs Perth Wildcats (4)
Snapshot - Kendric Davis put together an MVP-level season - averaging 24.4 points and 6.7 assists per game - under now-seven-time Coach of the Year Brian Goorjian to lead the Kings to the No. 1 seed.
- The undermanned Wildcats quietly achieved, led by the two-way excellence of Kristian Doolittle, to earn the No. 4 seed and progress through the play-in tournament.
- The Kings have the league's No. 1 offence, No. 1 defence, coach of the year, MVP runner-up, and have been on a tear of late, winning 17 of their last 19, including 11 straight to end the regular season.
Schedule (AEDT)
Game 1: Wednesday, March 11 @ 7:30pm - Qudos Bank Arena
Game 2: Saturday, March 14 @ 8pm - RAC Arena
Game 3 (if required): Wednesday, March 18 @ 7:30pm - Qudos Bank Arena
Regular season results
Kings def. Wildcats 94-72 (Oct. 19), Kings def. Wildcats 108-79 (Dec. 12), Kings def. Wildcats 102-84 (Feb. 15).
Will the Sydney Kings amp up the ball pressure?
The Wildcats' undoing in their seeding qualifier was their inability to consistently bring the ball up the floor against the Phoenix's smothering full-court pressure. So, will the Kings follow suit?
It sure is a safe bet.
Like the Phoenix, the Kings possess the capacity and personnel to have their long and athletic guards and wings pick up full-court in an attempt to stifle ball-carriers, and this Wildcats team remains a perfect target. Henshall and Pepper and young, David Duke Jr. isn't a natural point guard, and asking Doolittle to take over ball-carrying duties isn't optimal given how much is asked of him across every game.
Look for the likes of Makuach Maluach, Torrey Craig, and Jaylin Galloway to apply a substantial amount of pressure up the floor, with everyone else - guided by Xavier Cooks - ready to plug gaps and reach in until there's a general reticence from Perth's entire roster to bring the ball up.
"We have a pride in our defensive ability," Cooks told ESPN.
"We started off the year so bad on that end, and then we started taking pride in being the No. 1 defence, because of what that means in the postseason. From there, the joy came back, playing through transition, everybody getting involved, so I think that started to click a new style of basketball for us."
That style of defence fuels the Kings' elite transition game, so ball security over this series will be paramount for the Wildcats, otherwise scores can often get out of hand quickly against this run-and-gun Sydney group.
Do the Perth Wildcats have any advantage in the series?
The Kings and Wildcats played each other three times over the regular season. The Kings won all of them by at least 18 points, so none were particularly close.
On top of that, the Kings were the clear-cut most effective team in the NBL all season long and generally won't beat themselves; they're the best defensive rebounding team and turned the ball over at the lowest rate.
So, not only are the Kings the favourites to win the championship, but they've also had the Wildcats' number - and by some margin - this season.
What gives? What's the reason to believe in the Wildcats?
We spoke to head coaches and assistant coaches around the league over the last few days, and there seemed to be a prevailing thought: the Wildcats' advantage is that this is a best-of-three series. That's not to patronise; it's just that the Kings have performed at an extremely high level this season, to the point where they're, historically, one of the most dominant regular season teams in NBL.
Yes, the Kings will enter the playoffs as the favourites to win it all... but all it takes is a pair of wins, and there are things the Wildcats do well enough to get over the line in two of three games. Their frontcourt duo of Kristian Doolittle and Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. are both extremely talented and can be the best player on the floor on any given night, head coach John Rillie has had his team guard at a high level over stretches this season, and the likes of Elijah Pepper, Dylan Windler, and Ben Henshall have the ability to going on a heater and string multiple threes together.
While the FIBA break will have helped some teams, the Kings were playing dominant, inspired basketball to end the regular season and were forced to halt that momentum with a 19-day layoff. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have just played a pair of competitive games going into Game 1 of this series, and let us remind you again, all it takes is two wins.
Simply put: sample size means nothing in a best-of-three series.
Adelaide 36ers (2) vs South East Melbourne Phoenix (3)
Snapshot
- Bryce Cotton won his sixth MVP trophy and ninth NBL scoring title, leading the Adelaide 36ers to a top-two finish in his first season with the franchise.
- The Phoenix were a top-three team all season long, playing with a high-intensity, defensive identity forged under head coach Josh King, a revived Nathan Sobey in the midst of one of the best years of his career, and the ever-persistent defence of John Brown III.
- The Phoenix play a high-octane style of basketball, so they rely on their depth; the highest scoring bench in the NBL. Angus Glover was named the Sixth Man of the Year, Ian Clark is an NBA and NBL champion, and Malique Lewis is a physical and athletic point of difference in the league.
- The output of the 36ers' frontcourt duo of Zylan Cheatham and Isaac Humphries dipped slightly as the season progressed, but they're two of the league's most talented bigs and have the potential to swing games. Throw in bench centre Nick Rakocevic, and the 36ers have arguably the most imposing front-line trio in the NBL.
Schedule
Game 1: Tuesday, March 10 @ 7:30pm - Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Game 2: Saturday, March 14 @ 5:30pm - John Cain Arena
Game 3 (if required): Tuesday, March 17 @ 7:30pm - Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Regular season results
36ers def. Phoenix 88-71 (Oct. 16), 36ers def. Phoenix 94-81 (Nov. 22), Phoenix def. 36ers 108-99 (Jan. 18), Phoenix def. 36ers 97-77 (Jan. 31).
How will the 36ers handle the Phoenix's ball pressure?
By now, every team knows exactly what to expect when facing the Phoenix.
Josh King's team is looking for as many extra possessions as possible and will do whatever they can to obtain them. That means picking up full court with a high level of intensity, being annoyingly handsy, and relentlessly crashing the offensive boards; all of those sentiments led by John Brown III - the NBL's recently-crowned Defensive Player of the Year - and high-work-rate guard Owen Foxwell.
All of that was on show in the Phoenix's seeding qualifier, where the Perth Wildcats - who aren't an amazing ball-carrying team at the best of times - struggled to get the ball over half-court during stretches of the matchup.
So, will the Phoenix deploy that play-style against the 36ers?
"What do you think?" King said sarcastically.
Over the season, the Phoenix led the league in opponent turnover percentage, at 17.4%, as well as offensive rebound percentage - 33.5% - so of course they weren't going to change anything against a 36ers team that they've had success against recently.
"We're gonna try to get after these guys," King said.
"It should be fun. I don't think I'm giving any secrets away; we're gonna try to push the tempo, push the pace. You're not gonna shut guys like Bryce and DJ and all of the players they have down, but you've gotta make them earn, that's the key. Make them work for their points."
For the most part, we've seen Bryce Cotton bring the ball up the floor for the 36ers, but they'd do well to not have the league's MVP turned multiple times - exerting valuable energy - before getting into their offence that's heliocentric around him. Look for the 36ers to rely on the likes of Flynn Cameron and Isaac White to assume some of those ball-carrying duties, to take some of the load off Cotton.
As for the Phoenix's hunt for second possessions, it's worth noting the 36ers finished the regular season as a bottom-four defensive rebounding team, at 69.6%. By the same token, however, they do have the best defensive rebounder in the NBL; Zylan Cheatham led the league with 28.9% DRB%.
On the other end, Nick Rakocevic enters the game as the league's best offensive rebounder - a 16.4% ORB% - so, with the Phoenix often going to a small lineup with Brown III at the five, there may be openings for the 36ers to flex their size. It's something Melbourne United did with much success in their final regular season win over the Phoenix, and the 36ers have the personnel to be imposing in a similar way.
How much of a difference will a rested Bryce Cotton make?
Here are some basic facts. Cotton led the NBL in minutes, averaging 37.9 per game. That's 1,213 total minutes over the course of the regular season.
The six-time MVP was also top-five in the league in usage - 29.1% - so this has been another strenuous season for the 33-year-old. Of course, he has the capacity to play at a high level, even with that level of mileage, but there's no doubt that a bout of rest will be helpful. That's where Adelaide finishing in the top-two became so vital; it meant they'd have 15 days between their last game - an Ignite Cup final - and Game 1 of this semifinals series.
"You can look at it two ways," King said. "You get a chance to play a game [and] they're gonna be sitting at home for about three weeks. But, you can look at it the other way and say they're super fresh and super ready to go."
We saw the value of rest for Cotton during the season, with the guard's production taking a slight dip toward the back portion of his campaign. Cotton shot it worse from beyond the three-point line, got to the free throw line less, and turned it over more, with his significant workload likely playing a role in that slight but still-noticeable drop-off.
"If you asked who needed that FIBA break more than anyone, it's Bryce Cotton," former NBL guard Jason Cadee on ESPN's Aussie Hoops Hour podcast. "I think it helps him refresh, I think it helps him get his body right, and I think it helps Adelaide retool... and refine what they're doing."
Though the regular season series between the 36ers and Phoenix is 2-2, Cotton has been able to put up his usual numbers in those matchups, averaging 25.8 points per game over those four contests. The next level for the 36ers will be to use Cotton's level of play to lift his teammates, including his talented frontcourt and the shooting prowess of John Jenkins and Dejan Vasiljevic that surrounds him.
The Phoenix have different bodies to throw at Cotton - from the length of Wes Iwundu to the peskiness of Foxwell - but he'll be well-rested going into Game 1, so the challenge will likely be greater than it was at any other point this season.