After years of anticipation and debate, all signs point to NCAA tournament expansion as imminent.
ESPN's Pete Thamel reported Tuesday that the NCAA has initiated the final steps to expand the men's and women's tournaments from 68 to 76 teams, beginning with the upcoming 2026-27 season -- prompting a litany of questions that will have to be answered when the NCAA makes its official announcement.
ESPN's resident Bracketologists Charlie Creme and Joe Lunardi can answer some of those now, though, starting with which programs stand to benefit the most.
Which programs benefit the most: power conferences or mid-majors?
Lunardi: NCAA tournament expansion continues a multiyear pendulum swing in favor of power conferences. It is a natural extension of the expanded conferences, as the current coalition of power conferences and the Big East comprises 79 schools compared with 73 a decade ago. Each of those programs expects to make the NCAA tournament every season, so the pressure for "bigger" was never going to subside, despite overwhelming sentiment that more teams won't necessarily make for a "better" tourney.
Those hoping for a glut of additional mid-majors in a 76-team field are likely to be disappointed. Outside the recent and extremely rare example of Miami (Ohio), the bubble has consisted primarily of mediocre power-conference members along with high-end contenders from mid-major leagues such as the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, American and West Coast Conference. We can also expect the reemerging Pac-12 to be part of the new at-large mix.
For better or worse, the days of Belmont or Middle Tennessee or Old Dominion earning at-large bids are likely gone. That only changes if the NCAA adopts a tournament eligibility floor, such as requiring conference records of .500 or better for at-large consideration, in which case they run the risk of the big boys breaking away to form their own tournament before agreeing to any such restrictions.
The more likely consequence of all this maneuvering is an extension of the uneasy peace between the haves and have-nots, as both power-conference dominance and all existing automatic qualifiers are preserved -- at least until the current tournament television contract expires in 2032.
Is the same true on the women's side?
Creme: The women's tournament is no different. While a few more mid-majors could sneak into the field on occasion -- the Ivy League got three teams into a 68-team field in 2025 -- expansion is another win for the power conferences. The system behind NCAA tournament selection is already tilted in their favor. Adding more teams doesn't change that.
As Joe pointed out above, the bubble -- even the teams on the wrong side of it -- is still largely composed of teams from the four power conferences.
Once January arrives and league play starts, teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC only play intraconference foes, which only helps to enhance the metrics the committee evaluates. The best mid-major teams have no opportunity to strengthen their résumé after the new year, whether it's improving a NET or Strength of Schedule ranking or having a viable eye test, because they are not generally playing other tournament-worthy opponents. That's why 10 of the teams between 45 and 60 in the NET at the end of the 2025-26 season were from Power 4 conferences. That is the same group to which the committee will be giving the longest look to add eight more teams for the NCAA tournament.
Joe mentioned it. If a minimum winning percentage standard for NCAA tournament eligibility came along with expansion, then it would be something the college basketball consumer would actually embrace. Otherwise, this move has just taken one of the purest pieces of our sporting culture that even casual fans understand -- the bracket -- and turned it into something even the die-hards will struggle to understand.
Which teams would have made the cut this past season?
Teams listed in order of "first four out" and "next four out"
Creme (women's): BYU, North Dakota State, Utah, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Stanford, Kansas, Indiana
The inclusion of North Dakota State would support the argument for expansion. The Bison went 26-4 to win the regular-season title wire to wire, so a bid to join Summit League "bid thief" South Dakota State would have been a nice reward. But a closer look reveals that seven of the eight teams above otherwise represent power conferences.
On the other side of the coin is Texas A&M, an SEC team that had a losing conference record and a 14-12 mark overall. The Aggies needed a five-game winning streak at the end of the regular season just to finish two games above .500, but could not win a game in the SEC tournament, and lost by 20 to McNeese in the Women's Basketball Invitation Tournament.
Lunardi (men's): Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, New Mexico, Indiana, Stanford, Cincinnati, Seton Hall
San Diego State and New Mexico have both been frequent NCAA tournament participants out of the Mountain West, so you'll note there are no "true" mid-majors in this group.
Which teams do you project would make the cut this season?
Teams listed in order of "first four out" and "next four out" groupings from the first editions of men's and women's 2027 Bracketology projections
Lunardi (men's): Oregon, Oklahoma, Providence, Xavier, Marquette, Utah State, SMU, Clemson
Again, only Utah State comes from outside the power conference and Big East coalition -- and the Aggies have been to four straight tournaments (and six of the past eight).
Creme (women's): Michigan State, San Diego State, North Dakota State, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas State, California, Georgia
While the conjecture on next year is never easy to pinpoint 11 months in advance and without any games to evaluate, the above list tells a similar story as 2026. The Bison and Aztecs, depending on how San Diego State should be classified based on its part in the rebirth of the Pac-12, are the only representatives of the non-power conferences. Adding the Spartans and Hoosiers to the field would mean 14 of the 18 Big Ten teams would be in the NCAA tournament. Logic says that teams finishing 13th and 14th in any league, no matter how big -- look at the English Premier League table, for example -- will be sub-.500 within that conference. Oregon and Nebraska, 11th and 12th this season, finished with losing Big Ten records and received at-large bids. Expansion projects to make it four next year.