OAKLAND, California -- For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. So says Newton's third law and so goes the Socceroos at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, where their gripping 2-0 victory over Türkiye was followed by a deflating defeat against the United States on Friday. Against the Turks, they were like iron, unbreakable and unyielding, before smashing through their foes in transition. When it counted against the Americans, though, they were forced back, hemmed in, buffeted and eventually broken, twice, by a relentless red, white, and blue onslaught. The yin and the yang, the alpha and omega, the good, the bad, and the ugly.
Well, hopefully not that last one, because that would imply that the ugly will come against Paraguay in Australia's third and final Group D fixture next Thursday. That's the game that will determine their knockout-stage fate; not just their chances of progression, which are looking pretty good regardless, but also who they'll face in the first-ever Round of 32.
With FIFA's new preference for head-to-head results over goal difference, the United States are now assured of top place in Group D, while Türkiye are locked into bottom place and looking at plane tickets back home. Tony Popovic's side can no longer finish any lower than third, and, with the eight-best third-placed finishers in this expanded 48-team tournament also advancing, that means that even just avoiding a heavy defeat against the South Americans will put them in a strong position to progress. A win or a draw, meanwhile, guarantees them second-place in the group and a more manageable Round of 32 fixture against the second-place finisher in Group G, as opposed to a group winner such as Germany or France as a third-placed finisher.
Don't expect many in Camp Socceroo, though, to be willing to dive into the various permutations that may govern their future in the weeks ahead. They'll all have taken a look at it, of course, and the coaching staff will have done a detailed dive on it, but acknowledging that isn't what you do as an athlete. Instead, all the talk and the lion's share of the focus will be on La Albirroja. And it won't just be on getting a result, one imagines, but putting in a performance that addresses the shortcomings of their defeat against the United States.
Because while making the knockout stages of the World Cup is an achievement and a privilege -- think of how many nations go generations without seeing a World Cup, let alone a knockout fixture -- it's just one step on a longer journey. Humility needs to mesh with ambition, with the goal of any nation that has made itself a regular part of World Cups, as Australia has, evolving into the aspiration to become a familiar face in its later stages, one that is capable of claiming a few wins once there. This is especially true in this new era of expanded tournaments, wherein there exists that added safety blanket of third-placed sides advancing. "I don't want to be the underdogs for the rest of my life," defender Alessandro Circati said last week. "I want to be a team which everyone faces and is like: 'Ah, we've got to play Australia.'"
And if 2026 is to be the tournament in which this process begins, the World Cup in which the Socceroos claim their first-ever win in the knockout stages (which would be historic, no matter your quibbles surrounding Round of 32 vs. Round of 16), their game against the United States needs to represent an aberration, a learning experience, and a cautionary tale.
As when the game was in the balance on Thursday, before Mauricio Pochettino's unit got the two goals their play deserved and were able to cruise to top place in Group D in the second half, the Americans were simply better against Australia. They ran harder, they were cleaner in possession, they won the second balls, they pressed with more intensity, they moved with more purpose, and they executed their plan with aplomb. Such observations are simply reflective of how the game went for Australia, just as the praise for a warrior-like performance against Türkiye was.
Under a fierce American press, a relatively inexperienced midfield was overrun, and a backline trying to step up was forced back on its heels. Passes were nervously misplayed, and uncharacteristic errors in skill emerged to the delight of a hostile crowd. Playing two pacey strikers that were ready to attack three centre-backs -- Ricardo Pepi replacing the injured Christian Pulisic in the starting XI -- the hosts were able to drag their foe's backline out of position and then ruthlessly exploit the space that was left. Neither of their goals was beautiful, but they were entirely keeping with the balance of play; if anything, a 3-0 halftime margin wouldn't have flattered.
"We were slow to every ball, and we couldn't really wrestle back any momentum, which made it difficult," said Popovic. "And we considered a couple of soft goals, really, for us, they were soft goals. We just looked flat and lethargic in the first half."
After gambling with his selections and being richly rewarded against Türkiye, the coach rolled the dice once more with Mathew Leckie and Nishan Velupillay in place of Connor Metcalfe and Nestory Irankunda, but this time came up snake eyes, with neither making a meaningful impact on the game before being withdrawn. Popovic undoubtedly had his own reasons for making the switch, but it's difficult to look at the outcome -- the World Cup the ultimate in outcome-based analysis, after all -- and not assess that the coach erred by not starting either of his two goalscorers from the Türkiye clash; pick the guy that scored a goal last time out, or failing that, pick the other one, you'd think. Especially in light of the immediate boost they both provided when they entered, alongside Cristian Volpato. The spotlight is bright at a World Cup, and harsh when things go awry.
Fitness-wise, perhaps neither Irankunda nor Volpato were able to start; Popovic remarked postgame that the former experienced cramps throughout the second half, and the latter was the last to arrive in camp and was described as being well-back of where he needed to be by the coach when he did. But as a whole, fitness can't be behind the collective sluggishness the coach mentioned, given they've experienced an extended pre-World Cup training camp and were playing on a six-day break.
"I think there's probably a number of different factors," Jackson Irvine said. "There's no one thing. I definitely wouldn't say it's the fitness aspect of the game; the boys are in top shape, as we've shown, being able to finish every game as well as we have. There's the opponent, it's the first factor -- the way that they approach the game, the way they came out in the beginning. Sometimes teams are going to have that spell, sometimes early, sometimes late, and they had their spell really early in the game, and we weren't able to find a way to take that momentum off them.
"I definitely don't think it's a fitness thing; maybe it's a little bit of a mental factor. But in the end, despite two, the two goals, they didn't really have a great deal of chances, watching from the side. I still felt very secure in our defence. I still think when we're in the box, and even though it seems like we're deep, the boys seem calm and comfortable in defending in those spaces as well.
"But maybe just in the other parts of the game, we can find a way to flick that switch and bring it back our way a bit, a bit quicker."
Regardless of the recriminations, however, focus now shifts forward. The performance against the United States may yet become a cudgel, but, for now, it still has the chance to be a learning experience. In keeping with recent trends, there was a decided improvement across the second half, one which both could have, if combined with a more favourable whistle, provided an avenue for something on the day and should offer a platform for Paraguay. But the task doesn't just end with the South Americans.