Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Tight end adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for tight ends:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Tight Ends (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Trey McBride , ARI 305 316 11 17 114 1227 11 2. Tyler Warren , IND 197 189 -8 17 74 762 6 3. Kyle Pitts , ATL 189 211 22 17 82 859 4 4. Jake Ferguson , DAL 188 188 0 17 70 690 8 5. Dalton Schultz , HOU 182 178 -4 17 78 752 5 6. Travis Kelce , KC 176 193 17 17 75 775 4 7. Harold Fannin Jr. , CLE 174 186 13 16 73 759 3 8. Hunter Henry , NE 163 179 16 17 56 654 7 9. Juwan Johnson , NO 162 180 18 17 72 751 3 10. Brock Bowers , LV 161 176 15 12 58 629 6 11. Dallas Goedert , PHI 147 185 38 15 57 597 5 12. Colston Loveland , CHI 143 165 22 16 55 620 4 13. Mark Andrews , BAL 141 131 -10 17 47 505 6 14. Oronde Gadsden II , LAC 128 131 3 15 46 544 5 15. Theo Johnson , NYG 127 128 1 15 45 570 4 16. Zach Ertz , WAS 123 126 3 13 48 572 3 17. Cade Otton , TB 123 122 -1 16 60 544 2 18. George Kittle , SF 123 162 38 11 47 495 4 19. AJ Barner , SEA 122 147 25 17 50 442 4 20. Chigoziem Okonkwo , TEN 122 124 2 17 58 552 1 21. Evan Engram , DEN 113 103 -10 16 55 465 2 22. T.J. Hockenson , MIN 111 113 2 15 50 443 3 23. Colby Parkinson , LAR 106 130 24 15 39 365 5 24. Mason Taylor , NYJ 102 89 -13 13 45 471 2 25. Brenton Strange , JAC 102 118 16 12 44 429 2 26. Jonnu Smith , PIT 96 85 -11 17 41 375 2 27. Dawson Knox , BUF 94 104 9 17 35 355 4 28. Dalton Kincaid , BUF 94 126 32 12 34 407 3 29. Gunnar Helm , TEN 92 92 0 16 38 375 3 30. Pat Freiermuth , PIT 89 114 25 17 37 383 2 31. Cole Kmet , CHI 85 79 -6 16 32 389 2 32. Jake Tonges , SF 84 93 9 17 33 315 3 33. Mike Gesicki , CIN 79 71 -9 13 25 337 3 34. Michael Mayer , LV 77 74 -4 13 36 329 2 35. Sam LaPorta , DET 74 107 33 9 33 341 1 36. David Njoku , CLE 74 86 13 12 29 317 2 37. Darnell Washington , PIT 73 73 0 16 32 286 2 38. Taysom Hill , NO 72 42 -31 13 12 98 0 39. Tucker Kraft , GB 72 117 45 8 31 296 2 40. Darren Waller , MIA 70 89 18 9 21 291 3 41. Noah Fant , CIN 69 75 6 15 31 251 2 42. Isaiah Likely , BAL 64 62 -3 14 26 269 2 43. Tyler Higbee , LAR 63 71 9 10 26 255 2 44. Ja'Tavion Sanders , CAR 62 54 -8 13 27 233 2 45. Tommy Tremble , CAR 59 64 5 17 28 232 1 46. Davis Allen , LAR 58 63 5 17 25 209 2 47. Terrance Ferguson , LAR 57 52 -5 14 12 263 3 48. Noah Gray , KC 57 39 -18 16 25 257 1 49. Greg Dulcich , MIA 56 63 7 10 24 222 1 50. Elijah Higgins , ARI 52 58 6 17 26 226 1 51. Daniel Bellinger , NYG 50 60 10 16 19 205 2 52. Luke Musgrave , GB 48 49 1 17 23 237 0 53. Austin Hooper , NE 47 59 13 16 18 202 1 54. Jeremy Ruckert , NYJ 45 47 1 17 22 174 1 55. Tanner Hudson , CIN 44 48 4 15 17 154 2 56. Mitchell Evans , CAR 44 48 4 17 19 157 1 57. Elijah Arroyo , SEA 42 37 -5 13 15 195 1 58. Adam Trautman , DEN 39 46 7 17 18 160 1 59. Jackson Hawes , BUF 37 53 16 17 14 143 1 60. Josh Oliver , MIN 35 55 20 15 15 124 1 61. Brock Wright , DET 34 37 2 11 18 124 1 62. Luke Schoonmaker , DAL 34 27 -7 17 14 163 1 63. Mo Alie-Cox , IND 33 31 -2 17 14 131 1 64. Hunter Long , JAC 31 33 1 9 13 103 1 65. Julian Hill , MIA 31 31 0 14 16 120 0 66. Drew Sample , CIN 30 32 1 17 16 114 0 67. Johnny Mundt , JAC 27 20 -7 16 14 125 0 68. John Bates , WAS 27 27 0 15 12 101 1 69. Charlie Kolar , BAL 27 36 10 17 11 115 1 70. John FitzPatrick , GB 26 25 -1 15 12 83 1 71. Connor Heyward , PIT 25 27 2 17 2 27 1 72. Grant Calcaterra , PHI 25 23 -2 15 9 98 1 73. Tanner Conner , MIA 24 18 -6 9 9 114 1 74. Cade Stover , HOU 24 20 -4 9 12 86 0 75. Brevyn Spann-Ford , DAL 24 24 0 17 9 104 1 76. Luke Farrell , SF 24 30 6 17 11 84 1 77. Ian Thomas , LV 23 24 1 15 11 92 0 78. Nate Adkins , DEN 23 17 -6 9 9 73 1 79. Ben Sinnott , WAS 22 28 7 16 9 100 0 80. Will Dissly , LAC 22 21 -1 9 11 98 0 81. Quintin Morris , JAC 20 18 -3 14 7 77 1 82. Jack Stoll , NO 17 17 -1 15 8 67 0 83. Anthony Firkser , DET 17 13 -3 7 8 71 0 84. Tyler Conklin , LAC 17 17 1 13 8 78 0 85. Foster Moreau , NO 15 13 -2 11 8 57 0 86. Kylen Granson , PHI 14 11 -3 17 7 64 0 87. Charlie Woerner , ATL 14 13 -1 17 7 52 0 88. Eric Saubert , SEA 13 9 -4 11 5 48 1 89. Josh Whyle , GB 12 15 3 8 5 42 1 90. Andrew Ogletree , IND 11 13 1 15 4 42 1 91. Stone Smartt , NYJ 11 12 1 15 5 57 0 92. Ross Dwelley , DET 11 3 -8 11 2 25 1 93. Albert Okwuegbunam , LV 10 9 -2 1 4 38 0 94. Ben Sims , GB 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 94. Ben Sims , MIN 10 6 -4 8 3 51 0 95. David Martin-Robinson , TEN 10 13 3 17 4 35 1 96. Shane Zylstra , DET 10 5 -5 6 3 36 0 97. Josiah Deguara , ARI 9 11 2 12 3 33 0 98. Durham Smythe , CHI 9 7 -2 17 5 42 0 99. Brenden Bates , CLE 5 5 -1 6 2 19 0 99. Brenden Bates , HOU 3 4 1 3 1 17 0 100. Payne Durham , TB 8 2 -6 17 3 26 0 101. Sal Cannella , CLE 8 3 -5 2 2 41 0 102. Harrison Bryant , HOU 8 3 -5 12 3 37 0 103. Blake Whiteheart , CLE 8 2 -5 17 3 47 0 104. Zaire Mitchell-Paden , BAL 5 1 -4 6 1 11 0 104. Zaire Mitchell-Paden , NO 2 2 1 2 1 8 0 105. Tip Reiman , ARI 7 5 -2 4 3 33 0 106. Lucas Krull , DEN 6 4 -2 3 3 27 0 107. Keleki Latu , BUF 6 8 2 5 3 24 0 108. Pharaoh Brown , ARI 6 2 -3 7 2 9 0
