Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Thursday: Harrison the latest Brewers pitcher on the rise

ESPN FantasyMay 13, 2026, 04:40 PM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. All fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball buzz.

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ESPN's 2026 Draft Guide | Betting notes for Thursday

STARTING PITCHERS FOR THURSDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
16.1	Nolan McLean	R	DET	93.9%	46%	6.1	6.5	1.6	6.9
13.4	Chris Sale	L	CHC	99.6%	45%	6.1	7.1	2.6	7.0
11.9	Luis Castillo	R	@HOU	59.1%	40%	6.0	7.3	2.5	6.0
11.7	Kris Bubic	L	@CWS	58.8%	40%	5.7	7.0	2.2	5.6
11.2	Jesus Luzardo	L	@BOS	89.0%	40%	5.9	7.4	2.8	6.4
10.8	Emmet Sheehan	R	SF	54.7%	29%	5.3	6.4	2.3	6.0
9.9	Keider Montero	R	@NYM	7.5%	20%	5.4	6.6	2.0	4.6
9.8	Chase Burns	R	WSH	93.2%	28%	5.4	7.0	2.8	6.2
9.6	Michael McGreevy	R	@ATH	29.9%	34%	5.9	7.3	2.8	4.7
9.6	Foster Griffin	L	@CIN	49.9%	22%	4.6	5.2	1.8	4.7
9.6	Landen Roupp	R	@LAD	61.5%	29%	5.2	7.0	2.2	5.3
9.4	Jacob Lopez	L	STL	0.6%	30%	5.2	6.8	2.3	5.1
8.5	Ranger Suarez	L	PHI	72.7%	25%	5.5	7.3	3.1	5.6
8.3	Mike Burrows	R	SEA	4.2%	23%	5.0	6.8	2.5	5.1
7.4	Sean Burke	R	KC	11.6%	22%	5.4	7.4	2.9	4.9
7.2	Chase Dollander	R	@PIT	23.9%	32%	5.3	7.7	2.9	4.6
6.6	Ben Brown	R	@ATL	4.8%	19%	4.8	6.6	2.9	4.8
6.5	Connor Prielipp	L	MIA	4.2%	20%	4.6	7.0	2.6	5.1
6.4	Griffin Canning	R	@MIL	2.9%	27%	5.0	7.4	2.9	4.5
6.2	Kyle Harrison	L	SD	25.7%	20%	4.8	7.1	2.9	5.0
6.1	Robby Snelling	L	@MIN	11.3%	27%	5.0	7.7	3.1	5.1
4.7	Carmen Mlodzinski	R	COL	4.8%	13%	4.3	6.6	2.7	4.1

Pitchers to stream on Thursday

The Milwaukee Brewers continue to unlock the next level for pitchers, with Kyle Harrison as the latest example. Harrison's walk rate is still high, but the lefty is fanning more batters while doing a better job of keeping the ball in the yard. It's subtle, but Harrison has stopped throwing his cutter and is instead throwing more change-ups, generating a career-high swinging strike rate. Next up is a home date with the San Diego Padres. Despite several accomplished right-handed hitters in their lineup, the Padres sport the fourth-lowest wOBA in the league when facing left-handers.
Only three of Chase Dollander's nine starts have been at home in Coors Field, and he has taken advantage with a 2.63 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the road. The Colorado Rockies visit the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving Dollander another chance to build on his road success. The Pirates are not a pushover, but Dollander's velocity is up this season, and so is his strikeout rate.
Streaming an opposing pitcher in Great American Ball Park is risky, but Foster Griffin merits the nod with the Washington Nationals visiting the Cincinnati Reds. The lefty is benefiting from a low BABIP and high left-on-base rate, but he is also pitching well, as evidenced by an above-average K-BB% and an xFIP and SIERA both below 4.00. The Reds sport the fourth-highest strikeout rate and 11th-lowest wOBA with a lefty on the hill.

Pitcher to avoid on Thursday

The initial plan was to feature Keider Montero as a streamer, but after researching the underlying metrics, using him when the Detroit Tigers visit the New York Mets feels like a trap. The right-hander benefits from a park upgrade and faces a struggling lineup, but his modest skills portend a steep fall from his 3.18 ERA, perhaps even worse than indicated by his 4.56 xFIP and 4.46 SIERA. Montero's main improvement is reducing his walk rate, but his strike percentage is down, which conflicts with a lower walk rate. He's inducing far fewer ground balls and line drives but isn't paying for it with an extremely fortunate home run per fly ball mark. His below-average 18.7% strikeout rate isn't sufficient to mitigate the regression risk.

Hitters to stream on Thursday

Through April 12, the Athletics struck out at the second-highest clip in the league when facing right-handers. Since then, they've fanned at the second-lowest rate. They should have no trouble putting the ball in play at home against Michael McGreevy and the St. Louis Cardinals. McGreevy's 2.18 ERA seems impressive, but based on the quality of contact, it should be over twice as high. Only Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers are rostered in over 80% of ESPN leagues. Brent Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom are close, but it could still pay dividends to check on their availability, along with that of Carlos Cortes, Lawrence Butler and Henry Bolte.