Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
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Reliever depth chart
Pitchers to stream Thursday
Gavin Williams yielded just one run over seven innings in each of his last two outings, dropping his ERA since the break to 2.19 to go along with a 1.05 WHIP and 51 strikeouts in 53 innings. Williams might not rack up his usual punchouts when the Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals, but he'll face the lineup with the eighth-lowest wOBA facing right-handers this season.
After serving as the opener for his 2025 debut in early August, Johan Oviedo quickly transitioned to a traditional starter and has posted a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his last four outings. Eight walks in 19 innings were a bit generous, but striking out 21 while allowing only two homers prevented most of the traffic from crossing the plate. Oviedo will face a lineup that striking out at an elevated clip down the stretch when the Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Baltimore Orioles.
Pitchers to avoid Thursday
Ian Seymour's ERA over his last three games is 1.29 with a 1.00 WHIP. He fanned an impressive 21 batters with just four walks over that 14-inning span. It should be noted that nine runs were scored when Seymour was on the hill over this stretch, but only two were earned. On the surface, Seymour appears to be a solid streamer with the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Chicago White Sox. Samples against left-handed pitching can be misleading, but extremes in small samples can be telling, and the White Sox have struck out only 15.2% of the time against southpaws over the last month, resulting in an above-average wOBA. Even on an abbreviated slate, it's best to consider other streaming options before trusting Seymour.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.52 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.61 ERA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.72 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.23 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: D | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.74 ERA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Mets hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: D | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.66 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Thursday
Two of McCade Brown's three MLB starts came at Coors Field, helping explain his 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP. However, he struggled on the road in his major league debut and carries limited, if any, prospect pedigree into the rematch with the San Diego Padres. The Colorado Rockies hosted the Padres last week; this time the teams meet at Petco Park. Ryan O'Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Gavin Sheets and Jackson Merrill make up the fourth through seventh spots in the Padres' order against righties, and all line up for productive games.
Hitters to avoid Thursday
Over the last month, the Detroit Tigers have surrendered the fewest steals while catching the most players attempting to steal. Meanwhile, the New York Yankees pilfered the third most bases in that span, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jose Caballero leading the way. Chisholm contributes across the board, so fantasy managers should keep him in the lineup. Normally, trying to cop a steal by using Caballero on an abbreviated slate is sage, but in this case it's best to look elsewhere for needed stolen bases.
Today's best matchups for hitters
San Diego Padres LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .339 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays LHB vs. Astros pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .336 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians LHB vs. Royals pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .332 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
New York Mets LHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .274 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners RHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Austin Wells | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the last two weeks, Wells' exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.6 mph over the course of the season to 98.6 mph in recent games.
Michael Massey | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.20 EV
One reason to bet this: Massey's launch angle this year (22.4 degrees) is quite a bit higher than his 16.7 degrees figure last year.
Pete Alonso | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Alonso has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 19.1% season-long rate to 25.6% over the past two weeks.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Ryan Weathers | OVER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $35.26 EV
One reason to bet this: Out of all starting pitchers, Weathers' fastball velocity of 96.5 mph grades out in the 95th percentile this year.
Ian Seymour | UNDER 5.5 K (-115)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.46 EV
One reason to bet this: With a 2.57 discrepancy between Seymour's 11.33 K/9 and his 8.76 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts. He should negatively regress in the future.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Angels @ Mariners | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $5.77 EV
Nationals @ Marlins | NRFI (-125)
Projection: 57% chance of NO RUN with a $3.32 EV
Tigers @ Yankees | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $1.51 EV