topsecretdailynotesfile

Jun 30, 2026, 08:06 AM ET

TODAY

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
16.0	Cristopher Sanchez	L	PIT	99.8%	53%	6.7	7.1	2.3	7.1
15.1	Joe Ryan	R	@HOU	97.9%	42%	6.2	6.7	2.1	7.3
14.5	Bryan Woo	R	LAA	97.9%	45%	6.0	6.2	2.1	6.3
14.3	Tarik Skubal	L	@NYY	99.0%	35%	5.9	6.1	1.9	6.6
14.1	Jacob deGrom	R	@CLE	98.3%	37%	6.2	6.8	2.4	7.1
14.0	Nolan McLean	R	@TOR	89.1%	51%	6.5	7.4	2.3	6.0
13.3	Cam Schlittler	R	DET	99.0%	39%	6.2	7.3	2.4	6.8
10.9	Connelly Early	L	WSH	34.1%	43%	5.8	7.4	2.7	6.0
10.0	Kevin Gausman	R	NYM	90.2%	27%	5.5	6.8	2.4	5.4
10.0	Landen Roupp	R	@ARI	29.0%	43%	6.2	8.5	3.1	5.9
10.0	Mike Burrows	R	MIN	2.6%	33%	5.8	7.4	2.8	5.6
9.7	Noah Cameron	L	TB	14.3%	44%	6.3	8.1	3.2	5.2
9.6	Matthew Boyd	L	SD	44.9%	24%	5.1	6.1	2.0	4.8
9.4	Tanner Bibee	R	TEX	66.0%	30%	5.6	7.2	2.7	5.4
8.8	Trey Gibson	R	CWS	0.0%	34%	5.5	7.7	2.8	5.4
8.7	Rhett Lowder	R	@MIL	3.0%	31%	5.9	8.1	3.0	5.3
8.5	Bubba Chandler	R	@PHI	22.2%	16%	4.6	5.8	2.0	4.7
8.4	Jose Soriano	R	@SEA	80.6%	19%	4.9	6.7	2.1	4.9
7.9	Brandon Sproat	R	CIN	5.8%	16%	4.3	5.3	1.9	4.1
7.7	Martin Perez	L	STL	14.7%	30%	4.8	6.4	2.4	4.1
7.7	JP Sears	L	@CHC	1.3%	29%	5.1	6.8	2.7	4.5
7.5	Brandon Pfaadt	R	SF	1.4%	26%	5.3	7.2	3.0	4.9
7.3	Griffin Jax	R	@KC	37.4%	28%	5.5	7.7	3.3	5.2
6.7	Erick Fedde	R	@BAL	1.2%	28%	5.3	7.3	2.9	4.1
5.4	Cade Cavalli	R	@BOS	11.0%	18%	4.9	7.4	3.2	4.8
5.0	Matthew Liberatore	L	@ATL	3.0%	13%	4.4	6.2	2.8	4.0
3.3	Eury Perez	R	@COL	60.8%	18%	4.3	6.5	3.9	4.7
2.8	Jeffrey Springs	L	LAD	11.3%	18%	4.5	6.9	3.9	4.1
2.3	Justin Wrobleski	L	@ATH	74.0%	16%	4.4	7.1	3.8	4.0
-2.1	Tanner Gordon	R	MIA	0.1%	15%	4.6	8.2	5.8	4.1

TOMORROW

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
16.2	Zack Wheeler	R	PIT	98.1%	44%	6.7	6.8	2.3	7.5
15.1	Paul Skenes	R	@PHI	99.9%	39%	6.2	6.5	2.1	7.1
12.1	Tatsuya Imai	R	MIN	24.5%	39%	6.1	8.0	2.6	6.8
11.4	Taj Bradley	R	@HOU	44.2%	31%	6.0	7.4	2.5	5.9
10.8	Troy Melton	R	@NYY	29.8%	29%	5.5	6.3	2.3	5.3
10.6	Will Warren	R	DET	58.0%	35%	5.9	7.6	2.7	6.0
10.3	Freddy Peralta	R	@TOR	84.2%	29%	5.4	6.6	2.3	5.2
9.9	Dean Kremer	R	CWS	2.3%	37%	5.9	7.5	2.9	5.2
9.7	MacKenzie Gore	L	@CLE	61.4%	28%	5.4	7.5	2.6	6.2
9.4	Andrew Abbott	L	@MIL	42.6%	29%	5.6	7.2	2.6	5.2
9.0	Patrick Corbin	L	NYM	1.0%	32%	5.6	7.3	2.6	4.9
8.6	Shane Drohan	L	CIN	3.2%	28%	5.0	6.9	2.5	5.4
8.4	Shohei Ohtani	R	@ATH	99.8%	40%	5.6	7.9	3.6	6.3
8.3	Colin Rea	R	SD	3.5%	26%	5.3	6.7	2.5	4.3
8.2	Michael McGreevy	R	@ATL	20.3%	35%	5.7	7.2	3.0	4.3
8.2	Payton Tolle	L	WSH	44.1%	35%	5.2	6.9	2.9	5.1
7.9	Trevor McDonald	R	@ARI	2.4%	31%	5.3	7.2	2.6	4.4
7.8	Joey Cantillo	L	TEX	23.1%	27%	4.9	7.0	2.6	5.2
7.2	Noah Schultz	L	@BAL	4.1%	14%	4.3	5.6	1.9	4.1
6.9	Shane McClanahan	L	@KC	46.5%	26%	5.2	7.3	3.0	4.7
6.7	Seth Lugo	R	TB	24.4%	29%	5.3	7.2	3.0	4.2
6.6	Walker Buehler	R	@CHC	9.8%	23%	4.8	6.9	2.6	4.1
6.6	Zac Gallen	R	SF	41.5%	25%	5.2	7.3	3.0	4.5
6.4	Reynaldo Lopez	R	STL	4.0%	24%	4.9	7.0	3.0	4.7
5.7	Andrew Alvarez	L	@BOS	1.3%	12%	4.2	5.7	2.4	3.9
3.1	J.T. Ginn	R	LAD	22.8%	22%	5.4	8.7	4.5	4.9
2.9	Max Meyer	R	@COL	85.3%	35%	5.8	9.3	5.7	6.2
0.5	Kyle Freeland	L	MIA	0.7%	27%	5.3	8.6	5.7	4.7

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@SF	-126	55.3	+0.71	-1.0	+106	+0.71	7.0	O -108	7.56	-0.01
Logan Webb	NYY	+104	44.7	-10.55	+1.0	-138	-10.55	7.0	U -112	7.56	-8.99

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@ SF	-126	55.2	0.66	-1.0	+106	0.66	7.0	O -105	7.57	1.64
Logan Webb	vs. NYY	+104	44.8	-10.48	+1.0	-138	-10.48		U -115		-10.37