topsecretdailynotesfile

May 11, 2026, 10:05 AM ET

TODAY

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
13.0	George Kirby	R	@HOU	98.3%	41%	6.2	7.0	2.3	6.0
11.5	Nathan Eovaldi	R	ARI	85.6%	39%	6.1	7.1	2.8	5.8
11.3	Kevin Gausman	R	TB	97.5%	42%	6.0	7.3	2.6	5.4
10.3	Drew Rasmussen	R	@TOR	84.6%	24%	5.4	6.2	2.2	4.7
9.1	Peter Lambert	R	SEA	13.0%	17%	4.8	6.4	1.9	5.2
8.8	Roki Sasaki	R	SF	18.3%	29%	4.9	6.2	2.2	4.7
8.8	Ryan Weathers	L	@BAL	42.2%	31%	5.1	6.8	2.7	5.5
8.0	Michael Soroka	R	@TEX	34.9%	26%	5.4	7.1	3.1	5.4
7.4	Joey Cantillo	L	LAA	24.1%	23%	4.8	7.1	2.6	5.4
7.0	Trevor McDonald	R	@LAD	8.2%	26%	5.5	8.1	3.2	5.2
5.3	Brandon Young	R	NYY	1.9%	24%	5.2	7.7	3.4	4.3
4.6	Alek Manoah*	R	@CLE	0.4%	13%	4.4	7.0	2.9	4.5

TOMORROW

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
15.3	Paul Skenes	R	COL	99.9%	49%	6.1	6.4	2.0	6.8
14.2	Freddy Peralta	R	DET	95.4%	42%	6.0	6.9	1.9	6.6
14.0	Bryan Woo	R	@HOU	97.5%	40%	6.1	6.4	2.1	6.1
13.8	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	SF	99.8%	43%	6.0	6.8	2.1	6.4
13.4	Zack Wheeler	R	@BOS	95.1%	46%	6.2	7.1	2.7	6.9
12.4	Jack Flaherty	R	@NYM	39.5%	26%	5.6	6.5	2.0	6.4
10.7	Tatsuya Imai	R	SEA	23.4%	30%	5.8	7.8	2.5	6.2
9.8	Bailey Ober	R	MIA	22.0%	31%	5.8	7.4	2.9	5.6
9.4	Stephen Kolek	R	@CWS	1.0%	38%	5.8	7.8	2.7	4.9
9.3	Patrick Corbin	L	TB	1.5%	36%	5.4	6.9	2.4	4.7
9.3	Will Warren	R	@BAL	70.6%	35%	5.5	7.4	3.0	5.9
9.2	Eury Perez	R	@MIN	71.8%	30%	5.2	6.7	2.5	5.3
9.0	Jeffrey Springs	L	STL	25.4%	31%	5.4	6.7	2.6	4.6
8.3	Erick Fedde	R	KC	1.3%	29%	5.6	7.4	2.8	4.4
8.2	Brady Singer	R	WSH	7.3%	34%	5.7	7.6	3.3	5.3
8.1	Shane McClanahan	L	@TOR	48.5%	20%	4.9	6.5	2.3	4.6
7.8	Adrian Houser	R	@LAD	0.5%	25%	5.8	7.7	2.9	4.3
7.7	Trevor Rogers	L	NYY	45.8%	26%	5.3	7.5	2.8	5.0
7.6	Zac Gallen	R	@TEX	54.2%	35%	5.6	7.9	3.3	5.2
7.3	Andre Pallante	R	@ATH	2.2%	30%	5.5	7.9	3.0	4.6
7.1	Grant Holmes	R	CHC	7.4%	27%	5.1	7.4	3.0	5.2
7.0	Colin Rea	R	@ATL	8.0%	28%	5.5	7.5	3.3	4.8
6.8	Matt Waldron	R	@MIL	0.2%	32%	5.3	7.6	3.2	4.7
6.4	MacKenzie Gore	L	ARI	62.6%	27%	5.3	8.1	3.3	5.3
6.3	Walbert Urena	R	@CLE	0.9%	22%	4.7	7.6	2.3	4.5
6.3	Brandon Sproat	R	SD	1.6%	18%	4.7	6.6	2.7	4.4
6.1	Miles Mikolas	R	@CIN	0.3%	24%	5.1	6.9	3.2	4.2
5.9	Michael Lorenzen	R	@PIT	0.5%	18%	5.3	7.8	3.1	4.5
5.8	Slade Cecconi	R	LAA	1.2%	26%	5.3	7.8	3.5	4.9
5.0	Brayan Bello*	R	PHI	4.5%	20%	5.4	8.4	3.6	4.7

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@SF	-126	55.3	+0.71	-1.0	+106	+0.71	7.0	O -108	7.56	-0.01
Logan Webb	NYY	+104	44.7	-10.55	+1.0	-138	-10.55	7.0	U -112	7.56	-8.99

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@ SF	-126	55.2	0.66	-1.0	+106	0.66	7.0	O -105	7.57	1.64
Logan Webb	vs. NYY	+104	44.8	-10.48	+1.0	-138	-10.48		U -115		-10.37