The Dallas Cowboys head into Week 5 at 2-2, coming off a 34-30 win in Houston. Dak Prescott is playing at an extremely high level for an explosive Cowboys offense, completing 70% of his throws (fourth highest in the league), while running this system like a point guard. CeeDee Lamb, who had a career-high 17 receptions (on 21 targets) in the win over Houston, paces the wide receivers room, while George Pickens offers big-play ability on the perimeter. Javonte Williams is the downhill hammer in the run game for a unit that is scoring 30.5 PPG. The defense, under new coordinator Christian Parker, has yet to form its 2026 identity, allowing 28.0 points and 389.5 yards per game, which both rank in the bottom five of the league. But this group has the talent -- and the scheme -- to match up with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense that will be without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield (thumb).
The 0-4 Buccaneers started undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels in the Week 4 loss to the Packers. We saw a lot of quick-game concepts, screens and defined reads for Daniels, but he did make some throws while bringing an added element as a dual-threat player on designed carries and scrambles (eight rushes, 55 yards). The Buccaneers will look to control tempo with Bucky Irving and the ground game against a Dallas defense surrendering 150.3 rushing yards per game (second most in the league), while the passing game will need to generate more vertical throws for Daniels. On defense, we know Todd Bowles' unit will try to heat up Prescott (38.2% blitz rate) with more zone coverage in the secondary to limit explosive plays over the top.
Betting outlook
I'm going to follow the trends and what we've seen from both clubs over the first four weeks of the season. As I mentioned before, the Bucs set up Daniels last week with throws that allowed him to make quick reads and play as a ball distributor in his first pro start. That should continue against a Dallas defense that has struggled to limit opposing quarterbacks (239.9 passing yards per game). And Irving should play a volume role on the ground.
The same can be said for Lamb and his consistent usage in the pass game (at least eight targets in each game). Look for throws that target coverage voids, which increase his numbers Thursday night. I like the Tampa Bay defense to hold Javonte Williams' yardage totals in check, though he might find the end zone. The Buccaneers are allowing just 78.5 rushing yards per game.
Game bets: Dallas -8.5 (-115), total points OVER 47.5 (-115)
I'm taking Dallas at home to cover versus a Bucs team that has lost 13 straight games against the spread. Dallas has too many explosive playmakers here. And I think Christian Parker's defense can create enough impact plays versus the rookie quarterback to win by two scores. Looking at the total, the Cowboys have hit the over in 10 straight games. I do see this Tampa route tree expanding in Daniels' second pro start, and we know Dallas can both score and give up points.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Jalon Daniels anytime TD scorer (+260)
Eric Moody: Daniels rushed for 55 yards on eight attempts in his first career start last week against the Packers. The rookie should have plenty of opportunities to use his legs with the Buccaneers nearly double-digit underdogs against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this season, giving Daniels a good chance to find the end zone.
Bucky Irving rushing yards OVER 51.5 (-115)
Bowen: Irving has rushed for at least 61 yards in two of his last three games, with at least 15 carries in all three. It's a positive matchup here, and Tampa needs to run the ball.
Javonte Williams receiving yards OVER 15.5 (-110)
Moody: Williams has cleared this line in three of four games this season. Tampa Bay has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game, so I expect the Cowboys to attack the Buccaneers through the air. Dallas' offensive line also ranks 31st in run block win rate, which could make running the ball difficult. Tampa Bay has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
Chris Godwin Jr. 30+ receiving yards (-112)
Moody: Godwin has cleared this line in three of four games this season and has seen at least four targets in three of those games. Even with Daniels under center, I like his chances of reaching 30 receiving yards due to game script with the Buccaneers big underdogs. Dallas has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.