Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our NFL betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation throughout each week of the season.
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Sept. 28: Betting buzz: 8.5 the magic number for underdogs
By Doug Greenberg and David Purdum
Big underdogs are having a historic start to the 2026 NFL season, and it's all revolving around one number.
On Sunday, the Washington Commanders upset the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks after coming into the matchup as 8.5-point underdogs. In Week 2, the New Orleans Saints defeated the Baltimore Ravens outright as 8.5-point underdogs and the Cleveland Browns beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as underdogs by the same number. And in Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals pulled off the first big upset of the season when they defeated the Los Angeles Chargers ... again, as 8.5-point underdogs.
The four straight-up wins by underdogs of eight points or greater is the most through three weeks of a season since 1978 when five teams accomplished the feat, according to ESPN Research.
Only one 8.5-point favorite has survived so far: the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won and covered against the Browns in Week 1. Additionally, the only two favorites of greater than 8.5 -- the San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) in Week 2 and the Kansas City Chiefs (-10) in Week 3 -- also won and covered, both against the Miami Dolphins.
Because public bettors generally like to back big favorites -- via straight spread wagers, teasers or money-line parlays -- the underdog wins have been a boon to sportsbooks. At DraftKings, Washington's outright win against Seattle during Week 3 was "a good outcome for the book" after the Seahawks became the sportsbook's fourth-most-backed team of the day, pushing the line up from 6.5 earlier in the week, according to a sportsbook representative.
"The Commanders' win was the most impactful result for the book," Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN over email. "The news throughout the week created a perfect storm for bettors to focus on Seattle. With Sam Darnold returning and Marcus Mariota starting for Washington, the Seahawks became the perceived 'free square' in parlays."
Through "Sunday Night Football," underdogs are 7-8 outright in Week 3. If the Chicago Bears win Monday night, it will be the first time that underdogs have gone .500 or better in a week since Week 5 of 2025, according to ESPN Research based on DraftKings odds.
For the third time in as many weeks this NFL season, the big underdog win also meant carnage for survivor pools: Seattle was the third-most selected team in ESPN Survivor with 11% of the picks, and the second-most selected in Circa Survivor at 12.9%.
Lawrence's costly kneel
With nearly nine minutes remaining in the Jacksonville Jaguars' blowout win over the New England Patriots, quarterback Trevor Lawrence pulled a bizarre move when he took a knee at the 1-yard line, allowing running back Bhayshul Tuten to score on the next play. Lawrence's kneel cost his fantasy owners and benefited Tuten's, but some bettors in Florida really paid the price.
At Hard Rock Sportsbook, Lawrence's odds to score a touchdown settled at +275 before the game and several bettors included him in long-shot parlays. One such parlay saw the first seven legs hit, and missed out on Lawrence getting in the endzone as the eighth and final leg. The $10 ticket would have paid out $11,323.72.
Another saw a $2,000 five-leg parlay hit on only four of its legs, including Lawrence over 16.5 rushing yards, but missed on Lawrence anytime touchdown, denying a $33,339.20 payday. Ouch.
Chi-Town quarterback shuffle
Six points -- that's how much the betting market believes the difference between Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams and third-string QB Case Keenum, who is expected to start when the Philadelphia Eagles visit Soldier Field on Monday.
The Bears were 1.5-point favorites over the Eagles in the early lines posted last week, before Williams went down with a leg injury in Week 2's game against the Minnesota Vikings.
The line reopened at Eagles -4.5 on Monday, dropped to -3 during the week as hopes of Williams being able to return surfaced. But Williams was ruled out Sunday and Keenum was named the expected starter. The line settled back at -4.5 on Sunday.
Sportsbooks reported around 75% of the bets and money wagered on the Monday night game had been on the favored Eagles.
Sept. 20: Most popular survivor pick loses for second week in a row
By David Purdum
The most popular pick in ESPN survivor contests lost for a second straight week.
In Week 1, it was the Los Angeles Chargers, who were upended by the Arizona Cardinals. On Sunday, it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they fell to the Cleveland Browns.
The Chargers were picked in 21% of ESPN entries last week. The Bucs were backed by 27% this week.
In the high-stakes Circa Survivor contest ($1,000 buy-in, $25 million prize pool), 6,601 entries backed the Bucs in Week 2. Only the San Francisco 49ers (versus the Miami Dolphins) were more popular.
The 49ers took care of their business, but the Buccaneers did not and lost to the Browns 24-19 at home in a game that featured a lengthy weather delay.
If it provides any solace for Tampa Bay supporters, 42 entries in the Circa contest failed to submit their picks by the deadline. Those entries are now worth the same as the 6,601 that had the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay, an 8.5-point favorite, failed to cover the spread in its 11th straight game, tied for the longest such streak in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Research.
Ahead of the primetime game, Tampa Bay was one of five favorites that lost outright Sunday, joining the Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Houston Texans and Chargers.
Sept. 13: Circa Survivor kicks off with $25 million grand prize, Jaguars lead Week 1 picks
By Doug Greenberg
The Circa Sports pro football contests are locked in for the 2026 season with a total of $38.7 million on the line.
Circa Survivor will begin the season with a record 25,017 entries, making a winner-take-all $25,017,000 prize pool. The contest exceeded its guarantee of $20 million with four days remaining before registration closed.
Grandissimo, Circa's $100,000-per-entry survivor contest, also easily met its $4 million guarantee and ended up with a record 77 entries vying for a $7.7 million prize pool. The casino's traditional $100,000-per-entry handicapping contest, Circa Million, did not meet its $6 million guarantee and ended up with 5,790 entries, creating an overlay of $210,000.
Circa Survivor is the largest legal pro football contest in the country. Contestants pick one NFL team to win outright each week, with the caveat that they cannot use that team again the rest of the season. The entries must survive all 18 weeks of the regular season, plus two "mini weeks" for the Thanksgiving and Christmas slates.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the most popular pick in the contest for Week 1, with 8,121 entries (32.5% of the pool) selecting them to defeat the Cleveland Browns. The Los Angeles Chargers come in next at 7,585 entries (30.3%) and the Pittsburgh Steelers round out the top three at 4,013 entries (16.1%).
Some entries opted to pick from the first two games of the season, with 174 (0.7%) getting through with the Seattle Seahawks and 10 (~0.0%) surviving with the San Francisco 49ers. On the flip side, 49 entries (0.2%) backed the Los Angeles Rams and 25 (0.1%) were on the New England Patriots, leading to their immediate elimination.
There were also 18 (0.1%) immediate eliminations via the dreaded No Pick designation.
Sept. 11: Rams suffer worst opening loss by preseason Super Bowl favorite in 50 years
By David Purdum
Preseason Super Bowl favorites have lost before, just not as badly as the Los Angeles Rams did Thursday in Melbourne, Australia.
The Rams lost 27-7 to the San Francisco 49ers, becoming the first preseason Super Bowl favorite to lose its opener by 20 or more in the past 50 seasons, according to SportsOddHistory.com. The 1993 Dallas Cowboys lost by 19, and the 2017 New England Patriots and 1987 New York Giants each lost by 15 in their season openers. Both the Cowboys and Patriots would play in the Super Bowl in those seasons, with the Cowboys winning and the Patriots losing, but the Giants failed to make the playoffs.
Los Angeles closed as a 3.5-point favorite over the 49ers and attracted the bulk of the bets and money from bettors. BetMGM reported that 60% of the money bet on the point spread was on the Rams.
The Rams have attracted more than twice as many bets to win the Super Bowl as any other team at DraftKings Sportsbook. They remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl, NFC and NFC West, but their odds dipped from 5-1 to 6-1 after Thursday's loss, and their odds to win the NFC West shifted from -105 to +164.
The 49ers, in turn, improved from +300 to +180 to win the division. The defending-champion Seattle Seahawks moved from +215 to +184 in the tightly contested NFC West. San Francisco improved from 19-1 to 14-1 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings.