South Africa's win against India at the Women's T20 World Cup 2026 on Sunday has opened up qualification possibilities in Group 1. Here's a look at the teams in contention, and what each one needs to do to make the semi-finals.
Australia
Played: 3, Points: 6, NRR: 4.391
Remaining matches: Pakistan and India
After three comprehensive wins, Australia are sitting pretty not only with six points, but also a mighty net run rate of 4.391. They aren't yet through to the semi-finals, though, as India and South Africa can both finish on eight points, while Bangladesh can theoretically get to eight points as well. Australia will almost certainly make the cut if they beat Pakistan on Tuesday, while a win against India will put them in the last four regardless of other results.
India
Played: 3, Points: 4, NRR: 2.511
Remaining matches: Bangladesh and Australia
The loss against South Africa has put India's semi-final chances in jeopardy. If they lose to Australia on Sunday, and if South Africa beat Netherlands and Bangladesh in their two remaining games, then India will be knocked out. Even if India beat Australia and Bangladesh, it will come down to net run rates if Australia and South Africa both finish on eight points as well. India currently have the advantage there, thanks to their convincing win against Pakistan - they beat them by 64 runs, while South Africa beat India with only five balls to spare.
South Africa
Played: 3, Points: 4, NRR: -0.546
Remaining matches: Netherlands and Bangladesh
Despite winning two out of three games, South Africa have a poor net run rate of -0.546, which could hurt them if it comes down to that factor. However, the win against India has significantly boosted their semi-final hopes: if they win their two remaining games, and if Australia beat India, then South Africa will qualify without net run rates coming into play. If it does come down to net run rate, they will need big wins against Netherlands and Bangladesh.
Bangladesh
Played: 3, Points: 4, NRR: -0.641
Remaining matches: India and South Africa
Bangladesh's win against Pakistan has been the highlight of their campaign so far, but they have two tough matches coming up - against India and South Africa. Their best bet to qualify will be if they win their two remaining matches, and if India lose to Australia. If Bangladesh beat India and lose to South Africa, they'll have to hope South Africa lose to Netherlands for net run rate to come into play.
With six games to go in Group 2, here's a look at the teams in contention and the qualification scenarios.
England
Played: 3, Points: 6, NRR: 2.490
Remaining matches: West Indies and New Zealand
England have had three comfortable wins in the tournament so far, which is reflected in their healthy NRR of 2.49. A win in either of their two remaining games will be enough to seal qualification. If they lose both, though, they could be tied on six points - either with Sri Lanka and New Zealand, or with Scotland, whose remaining matches are against Sri Lanka and New Zealand. If England lose to West Indies, only one place will be up for grabs as West Indies would have already qualified for the semi-finals, and that will bring NRR into play.
West Indies
Played: 3, Points: 6, NRR: 0.644
Remaining matches: England and Ireland
Like England, West Indies only need one win from their last two matches to secure a semi-final berth. If they lose both, they'll have to rely on net run rates to qualify, as England will then move up to at least eight points, leaving West Indies to fight for the second spot with two teams out of Sri Lanka, New Zealand and Scotland.
New Zealand
Played: 3, Points: 2, NRR: -0.063
Remaining matches: Scotland and England
To stand any chance of qualifying, New Zealand need to win their last two matches by fairly significant margins, and then hope that other results go in their favour. Their worst-case scenario will be if England beat West Indies, who in turn beat Ireland. In that case, New Zealand will be eliminated, and both England and West Indies will qualify with eight points. But if Ireland beat West Indies, New Zealand could qualify with six points as their two defeats have been extremely narrow ones, leaving them with a net run rate which is only marginally in the negative.
Scotland
Played: 3, Points: 2, NRR: -0.083
Remaining matches: New Zealand and Sri Lanka
Scotland have so far had an excellent tournament, beating Ireland by 40 runs and falling short by just seven runs against West Indies. Thanks to those result margins, their net run rate is only marginally below zero. However, to progress any further in the competition, they'll have to pull off two upsets against fancied opponents - New Zealand and Sri Lanka - and hope other results and the NRR factor go their way. Even for a team that has shown plenty of promise, that is probably a bridge too far.
Sri Lanka
Played: 3, Points: 2, NRR: -1.913
Remaining matches: Ireland and Scotland
Sri Lanka have a dismal net run rate of -1.913 as a result of big defeats against England and West Indies. Like New Zealand, their hopes of qualifying depend on other results as well as their own: they'll need to win their last two matches by huge margins, and then hope that both England and West Indies don't finish on eight or more points.