It was a solid opening for Gilas Pilipinas in the 2027 FIBA Basketball World Cup Asian qualifiers, sweeping Guam in the home-and-away games for a 2-0 record in the first window.
But sterner tests lie ahead, and Gilas will have to elevate its level once the competition tightens.
After a 40-year absence from the World Cup, Philippines made a triumphant return in 2014 following a runner-up finish in the 2013 FIBA Asia Championship under Chot Reyes. That breakthrough sparked three straight appearances -- in 2014 led by Reyes, 2019 under Yeng Guiao, and 2023 with the former back at the helm.
Now with Tim Cone steering the program, Gilas is aiming for a fourth consecutive World Cup berth. However, this path could prove to be the toughest yet.
Here's a closer look at why this campaign may be the most challenging of the four and what Gilas needs to do to secure another ticket to the global stage.
Can they steal one against Oceania?
Gilas faces a brutal draw in Group A, where it must navigate back-to-back matchups against Australia and New Zealand over the second and third qualifying windows.
While Philippines currently sit in a strong position after sweeping Guam, the reality is that finishing above .500 in Group A may be out of reach, especially with the Boomers and Tall Blacks ahead on paper.
No Asian nation has beaten Australia in official FIBA Asia/Oceania competition since the Boomers entered the region in 2017, underscoring how difficult it will be for Gilas to snap that trend -- particularly with experienced contributors expected to suit up for Australia.
That leaves New Zealand as the key target.
Philippines' lone FIBA win over the Tall Blacks came during the 2024 Asia Cup qualifiers -- a result Gilas will look to replicate, ideally at home. A split with New Zealand would give Philippines a meaningful cushion once the qualifiers shift to the second round.
If Gilas advances, Group A and Group C merge into Group E in the second round, where carryover results matter and every game counts.
The top three teams in Group E will automatically qualify for the World Cup, while the best fourth-placed team across both merged groups also earns a ticket as well.
Teams emerging from Group C, notably and Jordan, are likely to be Gilas' stiffest competition for that critical third spot in Group E.
In that light, stealing a win against New Zealand isn't just a confidence boost -- it could be a necessary step toward earning another World Cup berth.
Chances of Gilas becoming the best fourth-placed team
In the worst-case scenario, Gilas may have to fight for the best fourth-placed finish to keep its World Cup hopes alive. Even if this safety net exists, relying on it is a dangerous game -- especially with how competitive the other groups have shaped up.
In Group B, China absorbed back-to-back losses to South Korea in the opening window -- a surprising development given the former's consistent presence in the World Cup since 1978.
Historically one of Asia's powerhouses and a regular contender in continental play, China is expected to respond strongly in the succeeding windows even against perennial Asian powerhouse Japan -- which could tighten the race for positioning once the groups merge.
Meanwhile, Lebanon faced a challenge against Qatar, which has already secured its place in the 2027 World Cup as host nation. Over in the same group, Saudi Arabia opened its campaign with two victories against India, positioning itself well before facing tougher opposition in Lebanon and Qatar in the next windows that can also drag them down.
The margins elsewhere may be tight, and quotient could come into play if teams pile up wins in the other merged group.
But despite all the scenarios, Gilas still controls its own fate. Protect home court, steal a key win against a direct rival, and there will be no need to rely on tiebreakers -- the road to a fourth straight World Cup remains firmly in their hands