The focus on Scott Pendlebury's imminent breaking of the AFL games record certainly is intense, far more so than even 10 years ago, when current record-holder Brent Harvey surpassed Michael Tuck for games played.
It's not just been about in which game Pendlebury breaks the record with game 433, but the plan for him to wear a gold No. 10 on a special jumper for the occasion, or even a suggestion that two other AFL games which will overlap with the Pies' clash with West Coast change their start time to offer "clear air".
None of which is meant as a criticism of the Pies or the much-loved "Pendles" ahead of what is a significant football moment.
But I wonder whether it represents a subtle, subconscious shift in the mindset at Collingwood. In other words, an almost tacit acknowledgement that even the Magpies themselves no longer truly believe they're in the premiership race.
Plenty of people were happy to claim that was the case before this season even started, of course. But Collingwood has long specialised in defying the doubters. What matters far more is what they think. And the Pies increasingly look like a team which knows the gig is up.
When it comes to Collingwood, we talk a lot about the over-dependence upon the brilliant Nick Daicos, which is fair enough, too, given that he missed the game against Brisbane and the Pies were spanked by 54 points, then was more subdued than usual against Geelong on Saturday night when another nine-goal towelling ensued.
Skipper Darcy Moore's injury woes and now concussion have been significant defensively, too, of course, and the Pies are struggling to kick competitive tallies, a miserable 15th for points scored after the weekend (they were eighth for points scored in 2025).
But if you're looking for cataclysmic fall-offs in the numbers department for the Pies beyond those scoreboard numbers, you're not going to find many. Because the truth is that even in the glorious premiership year of 2023, Collingwood statistically never quite profiled like the powerhouse its achievements suggested.
In 32 categories measured by Champion Data that season, the Pies ranked No.1 in just two, and top six in only half. By contrast, Brisbane over the past two years has ranked top six in 28 and 26 of those same categories. Which only reinforces the sense that Collingwood's greatest asset hasn't been overwhelming talent so much as supreme belief and composure.
What's made the difference? As much as anything, I suspect the gradual slipping of Collingwood's cloak of self-belief, perhaps first evident only late last season when the Pies started to consistently lose those close ones they'd become famous for winning over a near three-year period.
Collingwood, for all the scepticism over its overall list quality even last year, was 14-2 after Round 17, having just dispatched of Carlton by 56 points. It then lost by six points to Gold Coast and by one point at home to Fremantle, and would go 3-6 (including finals) after that win over the Blues.
Throw in what we've seen so far in 2026 and that demarcation line of the Round 17 Carlton game is pretty bold, 14-2 over the first two-thirds of 2025, 7-10 and a draw since.
And close games? Well, Ken Hinkley, for some hard-to-fathom reason expressed on air last week, mightn't have thought the Pies ever had any better ability to manage the tight finish than their rivals, but the results sure suggested they once did.
From Craig McRae's start at Collingwood in 2022 until Round 17 last year, the Pies won 25 and drew two of 33 games decided by single-figure margins (in other words, didn't lose 82% of them). Since the Blues' belting last year, they've won only two of seven games decided by single figures (29%).
Now that IS a significant change in the numbers. It's one which effectively demonstrates how fine a line there is in today's AFL between success and failure. The other notable observation from the margins column is that when Collingwood now senses it is beaten, heads are more likely to drop.
"I'm excited for it."
— AFL (@AFL) May 9, 2026
Scott Pendlebury discusses equalling the V/AFL games record and the upcoming game 433.#AFLCatsPies pic.twitter.com/4lzkDfYEbK
Under McRae, the Pies went 94 games in which they lost by more than 50 points only twice. It's now happened three times in their past 14 games.
Collingwood can still occasionally eke out a terrific win against the odds, none better than their qualifying final upset of Adelaide on the road last September. Who can be 100% certain they won't even pull another one like that out against Sydney this week sans Pendlebury, Moore, and maybe Steele Sidebottom?
What you can be pretty guaranteed of now, though, is that they can't do it often enough for long enough. The writing is on the wall in letters too large for even the Magpies themselves to ignore. The bubble of belief has been punctured. So why not indulge the Pendlebury milestone for all it is worth?
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.