Manchester United will head into the summer off the back of their worst league campaign in more than three decades -- since 1989-90. Minority owner Jim Ratcliffe has made a lot of noise with his hiring of a new chief executive (Omar Berrada) and technical director (Jason Wilcox), cuts to what he considers a "bloated" non-playing staff and unveiled what a proposed new stadium would look like, but he has hardly won hearts and minds among the fans. (The even more unpopular Glazer family is still lurking in the background as majority owners.)
Replacing Erik ten Hag with Ruben Amorim in November has at least given supporters the sense that there is a plan, though results have largely been disappointing. Amorim's tactical system, the 3-4-2-1, is proving to be a slow burn, partly because most of the squad is unsuited to it, and because it's a major departure from Ten Hag's style (or, really, that of almost any other manager.)
Still, it feels as if there's a plan. It might not be the right plan, but the sense of drift has somewhat gone away, and Ratcliffe isn't a Glazer, which means most United fans are giving him the benefit of the doubt -- for now, anyway.
So much depends on whether United can win the Europa League. They're through to the semifinals, with the first leg at Athletic Club on Thursday. Winning the Europa League would mean qualifying for the Champions League, and that, in turn, could mean anywhere from £60 million to £120m in additional revenue. Not all of that would go straight into the transfer kitty, of course. That many United players have contracts with automatic 25% pay cuts if they fail to qualify for the Champions League would help if they fail, but being in the Champions League would be a tremendous boost in terms of prize money, signing more lucrative sponsorships and attracting more top players to Old Trafford.
We expect the club to have budgeted around £80m in net spend, which could grow to £130m or more if United qualify for the Champions League. They will likely save between £12m and £15m in the wages of players leaving the club, and the good news is there are very few upcoming extensions to worry about (possibly a reflection of how much United have underachieved.)
Editor's note: This is the second in this year's series, Keep or Dump, over the coming weeks on which players to keep, extend and move on from for all the top clubs in the Premier League and Europe. Find the article on Arsenal right here.
KEEP/DUMP GROUND RULES
Remember: This is our assessment of what we think the club should do, player for player, with the squad at its disposal. It's not what we think the club will actually do, though sometimes the two will align. That said, we take into account what we know of the club, coaching staff and player preferences, as well as its financial situation and any other factor that we think will impact personnel moves.
Where we disagree, or where we think our rationale is worth explaining, we've noted below.
Goalkeepers
André Onana (29 years old, contract expires in 2028, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He was signed by Ten Hag and he's an accident waiting to happen. You have to shift him if you can, though it's not going to be easy.
Marcotti: He hasn't had a good year, I'll grant you, but the club has a ton of other priorities and there's not a market for him among clubs that can afford the £30m-plus that's left on his amortization.
Verdict: Split between move on, and keep
Altay Bayindir (27, 2027, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He makes mistakes when he comes in. He was always a low-budget short-term fix, and he hasn't worked out. Move on.
Marcotti: He's only two years younger than Onana, so unless you think he's your keeper of the future, there's no point keeping him and hoping he becomes reliable. He wasn't a very expensive signing, so I think if you get any offer over £4m, let him go.
Ogden: With his injuries there are lots of question marks. I'd hold off on extending him until he shows he can stay fit and contribute in this system.
Verdict: Keep, do not extend his contract
Matthijs de Ligt (25, 2029, with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He has done OK, there's nothing you need to do ... also because there's nothing you can do. You're stuck with him. I don't see him as a long-term Amorim player because he is limited on the ball, but he has played his part in tough times this season.
Marcotti: They made their decision when they gave him a year extension. Amorim obviously rates him enough and, at that age, with those wages, he's not going anywhere.
Senior Writer, ESPN FC