Midway through college and high school baseball seasons, the 2026 MLB draft picture is starting to come into focus.
We're getting to the part of the spring when players are falling into consensus tiers for evaluators, and when I see MLB crosscheckers and scouting directors, they ask me when my first mock is coming out. This year's class has a clear No. 1 player followed by a pretty clear next-best prospect and then the potential shuffling picks up at No. 3, with several college players and a few standout prep prospects all in the mix to go in the top 10 picks.
The players below were ranked using the FV (future value) system that I applied for pro prospects. Here are my preseason MLB prospect rankings to see where these players would rank if they turned pro now, though the grades will change (and generally improve as we gain more information and certainty) throughout the spring.
We've all waited long enough, so it's time for a fresh rankings update and a mini-mock draft of the first 13 picks.
Jump to: Mini-mock | Draft rankings
Mini-mock draft: Projecting the first 13 picks
1. Chicago White Sox: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
This already seems to be down to Cholowsky and Grady Emerson. I think Cholowsky has a notable lead, but it isn't a slam dunk just yet.
Since almost everyone in baseball has the same report and outlook for Cholowsky, this pick then comes down to exactly what you think Emerson's potential is and if he's a quick mover. Some evaluators think Emerson has higher upside and if you think he'll also move quickly (Konnor Griffin debuted as a 19-year-old, Jackson Holliday at age 20, Kevin McGonigle at 21) then he could also look like a superior prospect in the minors within a year or so.
If he's both things and he comes at some bonus savings vs. Cholowsky, you can logically justify picking Emerson. Some teams I've spoken with see this decision as close enough to really dig in and the White Sox might be one of those teams.
We'll learn a lot more in the coming weeks; I heard a big White Sox scouting contingent, including GM Chris Getz, was in to see Emerson this week.
2. Tampa Bay Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS (Texas)
This is a pretty common connection, especially in light of the Rays pick history and the industry's read of the first pick. Some rival clubs picking in this area think the Rays will seriously consider Vahn Lackey and Jackson Flora if they get a sizable bonus savings, with those two prospects seen as the other players within the top group before things really open up.
Given the variability in evaluating high school players and how the Rays covet MLB-ready prospects, I buy the Flora/Lackey buzz, both as earnest interest and possible negotiating leverage with Emerson. I can't imagine Cholowsky gets past this pick if he doesn't go No. 1.
3. Minnesota Twins: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
There's still a bit of an empirical bias against pitchers at the top of the draft if talent seems to be similar between two players. Lackey seems to have a slight edge over Flora for most evaluators, due in large part to this, but both are common third- and fourth-ranked players on boards.
I think the Twins would take Emerson if he's available here, I think Flora would also get a long look, and there's some buzz Chris Hacopian would be an option here on a deal.
4. San Francisco Giants: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
The Giants would really like to get a shot at Emerson and I think they'd be happy to get Lackey or Flora, but they're also taking a very long look at Jacob Lombard, younger brother of Yankees' top prospect George Lombard Jr.
Lombard is polarizing in a very similar way to Ethan Holliday last year -- both have notable pro fathers and brothers, big power and struggled during the summer showcase circuit -- and accordingly, some teams have Lombard in the back half of the first round while others think he's a clear fit in the top 10 or even top five. It's safe to project that the Giants take the last of the top tier of four here, but there's a real chance for something more intriguing.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep HS (Florida)
This is perceived to be one of those landing spots for Lombard, along with the first spot for another toolsy prep hitter in Eric Booth Jr.
I don't know if it's perception or reality but after Konnor Griffin's swing adjustment went so well so quickly, teams think the Pirates will take another prep hitter with big upside and a swing/contact question. I think this is the floor for Lackey or Flora if there's a deal cut in the top four.
6. Kansas City Royals: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
Things start to open up here, as the top tier of four is almost certainly selected by now and the Royals have an extra pick at No. 30, so they could opt for an underslot deal here to spend more later. The Royals are always trying to compete and it wouldn't surprise me if they went with a potential quick-mover on a deal at this pick to then set up more typical high school picks down the board.
Peterson has been rising of late, but his sweet spot might be a few picks after this. I think this is also the first pick in which you could see a high school pitcher (Gio Rojas or Logan Schmidt) and that would also be on a cut-rate deal.
7. Baltimore Orioles: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
Lebron had stealth 1-1 buzz entering the spring because of his big tools, but it was stealth because of contact questions; he's hitting .230 in SEC play and .270 on the season.
He fits Baltimore's style (multiple sources said he was a "great fit" at this pick as their first response to this mock) and probably shouldn't last much beyond here or the next couple of picks. Booth also fits Baltimore's style if Lebron goes earlier.
8. Athletics: Eric Booth Jr., CF, Oak Grove HS (Mississippi)
Booth has had a ton of heat all spring as he has added significant strength (one scouting director compared his physique to that of an SEC running back) with plus bat speed and raw power along with plus-plus foot speed.
I see Booth's floor is No. 14 to Miami, but I think he'll go a good bit earlier than that. This is about the juncture of the draft where the next cut of college hitters start to fit: Hacopian, Ryder Helfrick, A.J. Gracia and Drew Burress.
9. Atlanta Braves: Chris Hacopian, SS, Texas A&M
Hacopian has one of the best hit/power/position combinations in the draft class, though he's probably a third baseman. He probably lands somewhere in the top 10 with Booth and Burress (Atlanta tried to sign him out of high school) both fitting here, too, and I think there's a shot that a prep pitcher (again, Rojas and Schmidt) also could be a cut-rate option.
10. Colorado Rockies: Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech
Burress should land somewhere around picks eight to 13. Some teams have soured a bit this spring as a harsher scouting report would have Burress moving to right field with 20-homer upside at 5-foot-9 while the rosier view would point out that he has hit 51 career home runs for the Yellow Jackets and never batted below .333 in any of his three seasons. The new Rockies regime is a little hard to read, but the belief is the team will go with an accomplished college player so Peterson also makes sense.
11. Washington Nationals Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
Helfrick has dramatically improved his contact rates, sliding in just behind Lackey as the second catcher expected to go in the top half of the first round.
The Nats also have a new regime entering its first draft, but the decision-makers largely came from Boston, so rival teams are expecting Washington to follow what has worked for the Red Sox in recent drafts. The bat speed of Booth and intriguing two-way potential of Jared Grindlinger could also fit that approach.
12. Los Angeles Angels: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
It's hard to not just give the Angels a quick-moving college player given their run of pushing players quickly to the majors. Depending on how he looks in a return from a February ribcage injury, Flukey could go in the middle of the top 10 or a bit lower than this, but he is a polished potential midrotation arm regardless. Gracia, Eric Becker, Chris Rembert and rising RHP Logan Reddemann could also fit.
13. St. Louis Cardinals: Jared Grindlinger, RF/LHP, Huntington Beach HS (California)
I'll cut things off at this pick as the group of names in contention is ballooning. Grindlinger just turned 17 and is within a few weeks of being the youngest early-round prospect in the draft (just behind Rocco Maniscalco). He's a real first-round caliber outfielder with plus bat-to-ball ability and above-average power/speed potential, along with a pitching evaluation somewhere in the top two rounds. There is still some disagreement on this report and where he goes as Grindlinger was only seriously scouted starting this spring after he reclassified late in the process.
By drafting him, a team would basically get two elite prospects in one and probably would let him do both (with a lean toward hitting) for a couple of seasons to see how things break. That appealing risk profile means I don't think he gets much past this pick even with the abbreviated eval period. The Cards are also tied to prep OF Trevor Condon, who is also rising up boards as he had been red-hot the last few weeks.
Top 85 MLB draft prospects
60 FV
1. Roch Cholowsky (21.3), SS, UCLA
Cholowsky is still the top prospect in the draft for the vast majority of teams. He's an above-average hitter for average and power with a good approach and an above-average glove at shortstop who has been productive for three college seasons (1.081 OPS and 44 homers in 154 career games) after getting multimillion dollar interest out of high school in the loaded 2023 draft class.
If you were going to pick nits (scouts are as good at this as anyone), he's not the long, lean type of athlete you'd prefer and you could argue he has a bunch of above-average to plus tools, but no plus-plus, standout ability. Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman are the names that come up most often as comparable players. The downside for Cholowsky is basically a really solid 2-3 win player who never has that breakthrough season, but there's legit 5-win upside, which would make him a franchise player. It's really hard to pass on that high of a floor with perennial All-Star upside.
You don't see this kind of prospect every year, so the top two players in this draft make it a great year to be picking really high. That said, the depth beyond that is lacking a bit, so it's a tough break if you're picking later in the top 10.
55 FV Tier
2. Grady Emerson (18.4), SS, Fort Worth Christian HS (TX), Texas commit
Emerson has been the top prep prospect in this draft class basically since anyone has been paying attention. The track record of that kind of prospect, especially when it's a left-handed hitting shortstop, is quite good. Scouts have Emerson as an above-average to plus hitter with above-average to plus power, along with a solid approach and feel to get to power in games. At this age and as a shortstop, that puts him right on the borderline of future star, depending on what side of that standard report you land.
He isn't the size of Corey Seager (Emerson is listed at 6-2, 180 pounds), but there are some evaluators who think Emerson's upside could be a player of similar value. With how quickly polished elite high school position players can move through the minors (Griffin, Holliday, McGonigle are the three I noted above in the mock), you wouldn't be doing your job as a scout if you didn't take a long look at putting Emerson at the top spot on your list; you can certainly imagine how that could be a common opinion a year from now.
50 FV Tier
3. Vahn Lackey (21.0), C, Georgia Tech
This is the tier that runs roughly 40 through 120 on a minor league prospect top 100 ranking, for reference. Lackey has been a revelation this year, posting a 1.274 OPS heading into this weekend's series with tools to match: an above-average runner with a plus arm who will stick behind the plate and has above-average power, pitch selection and bat control as a hitter.
There's not a 70-grade tool, he's new to being this elite, and catchers often take non-linear developmental roads, but Lackey is very easy to pick for any team no matter their preference in prospect style.
4. Jackson Flora (21.1), RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Flora was a common pick-to-click this spring because of his combination of lively stuff, clean arm action and a loose, projectable frame. He made the leap this spring with improved strike quality while still sitting 94-98 and hitting 100 mph, with an above-average changeup, and slider that's almost a sweeper at 83-87 mph.
He could be in a big league rotation pretty quickly and every team is looking for rotation depth; Flora is also a fit for almost every team.
5. Justin Lebron (21.7), SS, Alabama
Lebron is hard to rank because he still has above-average power, plus speed and an above-average glove at shortstop (a rare combination in college) but his in-zone miss rate and overall feel to hit have continued to be below average.
Some teams look more for traits than polish in position players because they think they can teach/mold a swing and approach more than others; Lebron fits well with a team like that.
6. Chris Hacopian (21.9), SS, Texas A&M
Hacopian has a track record of strong contact and strong production with plus raw power. The hesitations are that he's more of a third baseman than shortstop, he's not an elite athlete, he's older than the other college position players in this area of the draft (which empirically does matter), and his flatter swing plane means his power production doesn't match his exit velos right now. Translation: There's a pretty high floor but a more limited upside.
45+ FV Tier
7. Eric Booth Jr. (18.0), CF, Oak Grove HS (MS), Vanderbilt commit
8. Drew Burress (21.6), CF, Georgia Tech
9. Liam Peterson (21.1), RHP, Florida
10. Cameron Flukey (21.2), RHP, Coastal Carolina
Booth has been steadily rising all spring, with plus bat speed/raw power and plus-plus foot speed. There are two concerns: He'll need to tweak his setup/hand move a bit (seems doable to me) and he's patient to the point that if he's getting pitched around (which has happened a good bit), scouts need to go back for a second day to write a report. In the game I saw him this spring, he had three walks and a hit by pitch in a five-inning run-rule game. Luckily, I got to watch him hit off of a machine in the cage for a few rounds and he fouled off a few pitches in game, but I would've liked to have seen more that day. Some teams see the premium tools and salivate at what player development could do, while others see risk of the unknown they'd rather avoid at a premium pick.
The next three players are much more consensus talents and reports across all 30 teams. Peterson is 6-5, has an above-average fastball/slider combo headlining a four-pitch mix, projects as a starter and has been famous to scouts for about five years. Burress has been super productive, but his swing/contact rate regressed a bit early this year, his 5-9 stature limits his power upside and he is on the center/right-field spectrum for some. Flukey is a steady starter with a plus fastball and among the best starter traits in the draft. He also has two fringy breaking balls to the eye that play up a bit due to his other abilities, and his solid changeup isn't used much. He is expected to return from a rib cage injury next week.
45 FV Tier
There's not a lot of quality depth to the prep hitter demographic so Lowrance and Comeau are common picks to fill that vacancy in the 20s and 30s behind the Grindlinger/Condon/Lombard/Booth group. There's a lot of conversation about Grindlinger, Condon and Lombard as opinions on them vary widely, as mentioned in the mock draft above.
Lombard's summer contact rate trips up some models to where he doesn't project as a premium pick. Grindlinger simply hasn't been scouted anywhere near as much as the others in this range and has a two-way evaluation, so teams just haven't reached internal consensus, and Condon is a lower-variance type that teams just tend to value differently. Some whisper the name McGonigle when watching Condon.
Reddemann has been red-hot of late and seems to be the player currently filling the college pitching vacancy behind the Flora/Peterson/Flukey group with Dietz also rising (but with an injury history). Waechter and Hirschkorn seem to be the prep arms rising a bit from the jumbled group in the 30-50 area. The next tier of prep arms will often get pushed into the later rounds as overpays, but Waechter and Hirschkorn feel like players that a team will have in mind for their second pick when making an underslot first pick. The college hitter class is quite jumbled with medium-upside types that are performing well; teams aren't thrilled at the lack of upside after pick 15 or so with all of the position players.
40+ FV Tier
Bumila is 6-8 and has been regularly up to 100 mph this spring with interesting shapes delivered from a lower slot, but there are still questions about secondaries and quality of strikes. He has thrown only a handful of times this spring but could still rise from here. Duncan is a more polished prep lefty and has also been rising of late, getting into the mid-90s and mixing in a plus changeup.
I must mention that yes, Landon is the son of Hall of Famer Jim Thome. I've written about Contreras this spring and will continue to because he's polarizing with scouts in part because he's such a fascinating scouting and development theoretical question; I'll go into more detail on this soon. Blair is another intriguing talent who throws from a distinctive arm slot (almost sidearm) with distinctive shapes and elite control: 55⅓ innings, 38 hits, five walks, 71 strikeouts this spring. Williamson has one of the more pronounced bat wraps (coiling his arms around his head as he loads up to swing) but scouts think it's fixable and love his potential everyday tools.
40 FV Tier
I cut it off here with the idea being this represents the full first two rounds plus comp rounds, which is 75 picks, plus a handful more to make up for the high school players I have ranked who won't sign. This also feels around the area where you start getting lots of tough-to-sign high school players who all feel pretty similar in talent but some just aren't being scouted anymore and opinions vary a lot from team to team.
I'm not sure what it means but somehow, there's five LSU commits in my next 11 ranked high school players. One team gave me feedback on the last 10-15 players I have ranked and this team has two of them in the fifth round or later, then another team said I must leave them where they are because they're both easily getting seven-figure bonuses. That's how ranking high school players is, especially at this juncture of the spring, once you get out of the top 50 players or so.
Opinions are quite split on Maniscalco, originally a 2027 prospect who reclassified and is the youngest player in this ranking, narrowly ahead of Grindlinger. He wasn't very good at the plate early in the spring when I and many others piled in for first looks; many teams buried him in the third round, where he's likely not signable. Some teams are still considering him inside the top 30 picks, though, fueled by models that love young-for-the-class, switch-hitting shortstops.
It's worth noting in this section that the automated ball-strike system (ABS) changes in the big leagues will affect the draft. Getting a raw receiver, framer, and blocker who has the athleticism to block pitches is totally fine at a higher pick. Having a plus arm is more important, but the release time and accuracy can be coached whereas arm strength cannot. So if a college catcher doesn't call pitches and isn't a polished defender but is an above-average athlete behind the plate and has a plus arm, teams aren't that bothered about the finer points; some big league teams are calling pitches just like most colleges are. This generally helps Jackson, Tinney, and Brock (ranked 185th last year out of a junior college in this space), along with a sleeper name that's below them, but rising: George Washington C Robbie Lavey.