Manchester City are running hot. They have hit top gear and have the momentum. They are course and distance specialists. So, they will win the Premier League title, right?
Not so fast. Arsenal have blown a big lead and might look emotionally jaded, but the chance is still there for them to end a 22-year wait to be crowned champions for the first time since Arsene Wenger's "Invincibles." Now it is a sprint to the finish line.
The Gunners, runners-up for the past three years, have to free themselves from the apparent mental block that stands between them and their holy grail. Manager Mikel Arteta is preaching a message of "No Fear, More Fire" to players and fans, many of whom seem to have been overcome with a collective neurosis and fatalistic feeling about the task in hand. It feels like they expect the worst.
Arsenal had the chance to go 12 points clear when they faced Bournemouth at home on April 11. Instead, they got what Arteta called "a punch in the face" in a listless 2-1 defeat. That gave City an opening, and they barged the door open by winning the crunch game between the title rivals.
Now, as that brilliant TV commentator Brian Moore famously said, "It's all up for grabs."
- What's at stake in Europe's top leagues: Titles, relegation, more
- Laurens' Weekend Predictions: Man United-Liverpool, Hearts-Rangers
- Ogden: Why Premier League's sixth team could reach Champions League
City, of course, have been champions in six of the past eight seasons, and Pep Guardiola is so relaxed -- on the surface, at least -- that he sent his players on a four-day break this week, even reaching a fourth successive FA Cup final using a second-string team. "Go away. Do what you like. Just be back here by Wednesday afternoon for training," was Pep's message to the players. He says he now realizes that rest and relaxation can be more beneficial than another hard session at this late stage of the season. Less is more.
The break is another factor in City's favor. Their stars have been putting their feet up while Arsenal have been in an intense Champions League semifinal tussle with Atletico Madrid, with no such thing as an easy game against Diego Simeone's team. That said, the way the remaining fixtures fall might just give Arsenal an edge.
Arsenal will go six points clear if they can beat Fulham at home this weekend, albeit City will then have two games in hand. In an ideal world, the Gunners will not only win, but also start to find a more fluent rhythm than they did in scraping home against Newcastle last week.
The return to fitness of Bukayo Saka could be huge for Arsenal on the run-in, though one or two others -- notably the previously impressive Martín Zubimendi and Declan Rice -- look to be running on empty. The injury to Kai Havertz is a blow and means Viktor Gyökeres will presumably be recalled at a time when Arteta has lost a little faith in him.
Fulham will be no formality. They have kept clean sheets in both of their last two games at Brentford and at home to Aston Villa and still have European hopes of their own. But it is a match Arsenal must and should win as they face their former keeper Bernd Leno.
Two days later City return to action, possibly those six points adrift, with a tricky-looking game at Everton, who badly need the points to keep their own European ambitions alive. David Moyes' team recently beat Chelsea 3-0 in its plush new stadium but is coming off late defeats to Liverpool and West Ham.
City seem to have lost that occasional fragility they had earlier in the season since partnering Marc Guéhi and Abdukodir Khusanov in central defense. They have conceded only two goals on a six-game winning run in which Jérémy Doku and Rayan Cherki have given City's attack another dimension. They have scored in 48 of 54 games this season.
The odds suggest a hard game near the River Mersey but a probable City win.
The following night, next Tuesday, Arsenal face their return leg with Atletico, and who knows how they will emerge from such a huge night in the club's history. But before Arsenal return to their Premier League title quest, City play Brentford at home a day before the Gunners go to West Ham, who are waging an impressive battle to stay in the Premier League. It's worth recalling that the Hammers held City to a 1-1 draw at the London Stadium on March 14, making this a dangerous proposition for Arteta.
Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola brands World Cup tickets "so expensive", saying "football is for the fans".
City are not happy at having to play three games in seven days -- Crystal Palace at home, the FA Cup final against Chelsea, then a difficult trip to a bright Bournemouth team well capable of ruffling the feathers of big clubs. That will be a demanding period in which fatigue could be a factor for the men in sky blue.
Arsenal, meanwhile, finish up with a home game against relegated Burnley (surely three points) and a trip to Selhurst Park to play Palace, who might well have European matters on their minds.
City's last-day assignment is Villa at home, bringing back memories of the incredible finish in 2022 when City, 2-0 down after 76 minutes, scored three in five minutes to clinch the title. This could be something of a meaningless game for Villa, who will be in the Champions League next season one way or another in any case.
The run-in results are impossible to call with any confidence. It could even be decided on goal difference (very close at the moment) or goals scored (City just ahead).
My hunch? Manchester City are the team in better form and with the extra firepower and an improved defense at present. Arsenal need to step up, but who would really be surprised if there are one or two more twists in the plot.