With all of its layers of intrigue, there's really no underrating how much of a landmark event the 2026 FIFA World Cup could be for soccer in the United States, as well as the still-nascent American sports betting industry.
This year's iteration of soccer's most prestigious tournament will be the first in its history to include 48 teams, a step up from the 32 that have participated in each tournament since 1998 and double the number of squads from 1994, which was the first and most recent tournament hosted by the United States.
The 2026 World Cup will also be the first to be hosted by three nations, with Canada, Mexico and the U.S. splitting the responsibility, albeit with significantly more American cities hosting matches this summer.
Between the higher inventory of betting markets from more matches being played, advantageous time zones with all games taking place on North American soil, and generally increasing excitement for soccer from the maturing American betting public, the U.S. sports betting industry is expecting potentially record levels of betting handle. Betting industry analysts estimate approximately $2.9 billion will be wagered on the World Cup at legal American sportsbooks this summer and could reach $4.4 billion under the right conditions -- numbers that could eclipse betting on the Super Bowl and possibly even March Madness.
"The handle's going to be very large on this tournament overall," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "More games means more action, so we're wide-open arms and readily available to book these games. We've got more teams, which means it's going to be more excitement, more money bet, more teams to offer futures on, and other types of propositions."
Many American bettors are using this moment to back the home team. Several U.S. sportsbooks are reporting an outsized number of bets coming in on the USMNT to win the Cup, as well as other futures, such as to win their group or to advance to a certain round of the tournament.
Caesars and DraftKings both say their largest futures liabilities are with the Americans, while BetMGM reports 5.5% of World Cup winner tickets backing the USA, the most of any team outside of the six favorites. The championship futures odds for the team vary from 50-1 to 60-1 across the sportsbook marketplace.
"The way we approach this is that we're not going to take the U.S. and put them up at some ridiculously low price and gouge the customer," said Avello. "We're going to put them up at a fair price and we're going to let the bettors bet them because we know that's going to happen. And if the U.S. wins this, that's great for our country and we'll take our lumps."
Bookmakers also fully expect the betting public to back the United States on a game-to-game basis, likely beginning with their first match against Paraguay on June 12. BetMGM says that game has attracted six times more wagers than the other three opening matches combined, and USA moneyline has 11 times more bets than any other team's offerings.
The field
Of course, while the United States is garnering more attention than a usual long shot, the significant lion's share of tickets and money are going towards the favorites.
Outside of a slight hiccup surrounding superstar Lamine Yamal's injury news, Spain has maintained favorite odds across the sportsbook marketplace at a consensus +450. Some sportsbooks list France as co-favorites with Spain, while others have them in the second spot as long as +500.
Either way, those are the clear top options on sportsbooks' World Cup winner odds boards and bettors are acting like it, supporting La Roja and Les Bleus at an astounding clip. BetMGM reports over 30% of combined wagers and nearly half of combined handle backing them.
"I didn't realize that this would be a steady stream of money on these teams," said Avello. "Those are the two favorites that have been very popular throughout, especially lately. They were a little popular, but over the last week or so, those two are getting an influx of money."
The next tier of favorites, according to bookmakers, are not getting nearly as much attention. In particular, England (+700), Brazil (+900) and reigning champions Argentina (+900) have not caught the fancy of the betting public.
The one exception among the next tier is Portugal, who shortened from 10-1 to +850 amid some action from bettors, according to DraftKings odds. BetMGM lists the Portuguese as one of the book's largest liabilities, though they still trail France and Spain in that regard.
"I think they are rightfully the two teams to beat. Both in good form and have real depth of talent," Caesars Sportsbook soccer lead Mark Bickerdike told ESPN. "[The next tier] are still popular, but it is definitely a step down from those two teams."
It's worth noting that the pre-tournament World Cup favorite has only won it all three times: West Germany in 1974, Brazil in 1994, and Spain in 2010. The largest pre-tournament long shot to win it all was Italy, who came into the 1982 competition at 18-1, according to data from SportsOddsHistory.com.
Immediately outside of the top-six favorites, the Netherlands -- a staple in the international soccer landscape -- are also attracting some action at 20-1 at DraftKings, as is Senegal at 90-1. Host nation Mexico (65-1) has also proven to be popular, according to multiple bookmakers, with fellow host nation Canada (200-1) much less so.
And then there's Haiti, residing at the very bottom of the odds board in a tie at 2,500-1. Remarkably, Avello and Bickerdike both separately said Haiti was attracting some outsized action. Hey, everyone loves an underdog!
Parlays, player futures and possibilities
Aside from the inflated field inherently providing more volume for bettors, it also supplies a greater breadth of betting possibilities.
Bickerdike says he's seen bettors creating lots of futures parlays centered around group winners and qualifiers from the group stage. He explains that the addition of 12 teams -- "and let's be honest, 12 generally lesser teams," he adds -- makes for shorter prices in the group stage for many of the group favorites, allowing bettors to create more value by strapping those teams together in parlays.
With fields of 36 in the past, Bickerdike says he generally saw more straight futures. He also anticipates more parlays on a daily basis once the tournament gets underway.
"In terms of the activity we've seen, it's quite different," he said. "We expect to see a lot more parlays, particularly in the group stage, one, because you can have up to six games in a day, therefore you can build a good parlay, but equally due to those short prices as well."
The betting public will, of course, latch onto many of the big-name players for the major tournament awards in futures markets.
For the Golden Boot, awarded to the tournament's top goalscorer, bettors are gravitating towards many of the usual suspects who make up the favorites tier: Kylian Mbappé (+600), Harry Kane (+700), Erling Haaland (14-1) and Yamal (22-1), per DraftKings odds. Bickerdike also notes that Breel Embolo (120-1) has gotten some outsized action from bettors, noting that Switzerland could have a favorable draw should they win their group.
In general, sportsbooks are looking to offer more soccer markets than ever before because of the immense opportunity that the North American World Cup provides. Bookmakers expect same-game parlays -- often composed of anytime goalscorers, corner kicks and, yes, even sometimes yellow cards -- to be quite popular and form the basis for a potential record handle.