There are plenty of talking points after Round 16 of the AFL season, but the future of the Bombers continues to be one of the biggest. Is Essendon's list that bad we're not seeing whether Dean Solomon can actually coach?
Let's get to this week's overreactions column, where we judge the biggest takeaways as legitimate or irrational.
Dean Solomon is the right man to lead Essendon next year
The Essendon interim coach is in a tough position. Thrust into the gig after 12 weeks of footy, Solomon is still winless through four games and things are looking as dire as ever at The Hangar.
But do the Bombers need to stick fat and back the man to turn things around? Is Solomon a competent coach that needs time to build a competent list?
Verdict: Overreaction
Maybe he is the man, maybe he isn't. At this stage, we just won't know because the Bombers are that poor of a team, and that much of a poisoned chalice, that Leigh Matthews, Norm Smith, and Alastair Clarkson combined wouldn't be able to squeeze any 'bonus' wins out of them.
Let's look at some numbers. Under Brad Scott, the Dons were 18th for scores against. In Solomon's month in charge, they're 10th. But pressure, ball movement, and opposition scores per inside 50 are all bottom two, according to Fox Footy's First Crack.
By taking the caretaker role, Solomon has done himself a disservice. The squad isn't good enough to show off whatever philosophy the interim man is trying to implement, and by the end of the year, the win-loss record will be at a point where appointing Solomon would feel somewhat negligent by those in charge.
It's a catch-22; Solomon can't really prove himself as a coach because the playing list and weekly effort just isn't up to scratch, and the skills realistically aren't going to get any better over his 12-week reign. We just don't know what he'd be able to achieve with a competent best 23 on the park.
It's a classic case of the 'rebuild coach'. Think Brendon Bolton, Scott Watters, David Noble, Mark Neeld. Coaches that are thrust into dire situations, with clubs that need significant time for the list to improve. By the time a number of years have passed, the win-loss ratio might be 1:5, or worse, and they might well be on their way out. Basically, they're doing the hard yards before someone else can swoop in and reap the rewards.
Another question to ponder: will the next coach be in the same position? Essendon isn't a quick re-tool like Carlton seems to be. It'll be years of drafting, hard yards, and poor results ... who woul dreally want that job?
-- Matt Walsh
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