The 2026 AFL season is now two months old. Who are the flag favourites? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked each club in his May edition of tiers.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2026 season.
Flown the gates
1. SYDNEY
2. HAWTHORN
3. FREMANTLE
These three teams have done little wrong through the first third of the year, having spent much of it jostling for position inside the top four. They're a combined 20-3-1 and are all shorter than $7 with bookmakers to lift the premiership cup. The Swans have become a scoring juggernaut under Dean Cox, averaging a whopping 118 points per game this season, the Hawks have quickly dismissed suggestions its undermanned midfield would be exposed and are unbeaten since its opening round slip up in western Sydney, while the Dockers are on one of the greatest runs in club history, having won 19 of their past 22 home and away games.
Lurking in the shadows
4. BRISBANE
5. GEELONG
We haven't seen the absolute best of these two proven sides just yet, but you get the feeling it's probably coming. Both clubs are well placed after the first two months of the season, are expertly coached, littered with stars, and, perhaps most importantly, are proven quantities in September. The Lions started slowly with back-to-back defeats and then suffered a shock third loss to the Demons at the MCG. They've since rebounded to take hold of flag favouritism. Meanwhile, the Cats have suffered two significant losses and would be third on the ladder if not for Jack Gunston's late-game heroics on Easter Monday. Expect both to continue rising as the season progresses.
Anyone got a parachute handy?
6. GOLD COAST
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS
This could easily be the 'Tom Petty tier,' with both the Suns and Bulldogs in utter freefall after what were blistering starts to their respective campaigns. I had these two clubs ranked No. 1 and 2 in the first edition of this year's tiers, but since then they are a combined 2-6 and have both slid outside the top four. It's far more catastrophic for the Bulldogs, who lost star forward Sam Darcy to a season-ending ACL injury and have been beaten in four consecutive games to sit a worrying 12th on the ladder. The Suns suffered back-to-back losses to the Demons and Swans, very nearly lost to Essendon(!) and were belted by the Hawks. A win over the Giants this past weekend was needed to arrest the skid, but questions over their legitimacy remain.
Got 'wildcard team' written all over them
8. MELBOURNE
9. COLLINGWOOD
10. ADELAIDE
11. ST KILDA
Four finals wildcard spots available. Four teams I'm just about pencilling in for them. These are your classic middling teams in 2026. They'll each accumulate 12 or so wins throughout the year, including a seismic upset or two along the way, but are they truly feared by the teams ranked above them? I'll let you make up your own mind. The Demons have been a fun story under new coach Steven King and are playing arguably the most exciting brand of footy in the competition, the Magpies just continue to bat above their average and outproduce what many would expect from an aging list, the Crows have crashed back down to earth after an out-of-the-box 2025 campaign, and the Saints, well, this is where they live, right?! Good enough teams? Sure. But not scary.
Do they believe in themselves?
12. NORTH MELBOURNE
13. PORT ADELAIDE
14. GWS
Forget what we all think, what do these clubs actually think? Do they truly believe in themselves? The Kangaroos have started the year brightly but haven't featured in finals in a decade, which is something that simply has to weigh heavily on both the playing group and fanbase the longer the season runs. The Power have a new coach at the helm in Josh Carr, their star player Zak Butters has one foot out the door, and they are coming off a season in which Champion Data's premiership standards report suggested they were as far away from a flag as the likes of the Tigers and Eagles. And then there's the Giants. Much was expected of Adam Kingsley's side at the beginning of the year, but a slew of key injuries has changed the whole equation. Are they good enough to stay afloat until reinforcements arrive?
And here's your bottom four...
15. CARLTON
16. ESSENDON
17. WEST COAST
18. RICHMOND
All four clubs have been diabolical this season and it now feels a near certainty that they will finish the home and away season occupying the bottom four spots on the ladder. The Blues have been arguably the biggest disappointment of the year, winning just once from eight games despite leading for 52.8% of game time. If Carlton isn't the most disappointing team of 2026, then it has to be Essendon, which has also mustered a sole win and spent much of the year justifying why former skipper Zach Merrett begged to be traded away. The Eagles and Tigers we give somewhat of a pass to given the rebuilds, but it's tough to make a case they aren't still the two worst sides in the competition.